I must say it sure is nice looking at the player pool each day and NOT seeing a big red IR or OUT logo next to half the player's names on the list. Also, knock on wood, when was the last time a game has been postponed? Has to have been at least two weeks now. Let's hope things keep trending positively in this direction.

It's been a great NHL schedule this week with at least five games each day for the past nine days, a streak that will extend to ten today. And while there are 11 scheduled for Saturday, due to the staggered start times, we only get six on the main slate for DraftKings. A bit of a bummer, but we'll make it work.

Before getting into the plays for tonight, I think it's a good time to briefly touch on some game theory, considering the look of this slate. I think game theory is a pretty vague term that can encompass so many things, but for the purpose of this article I'm going to define game theory as building your DFS lineups not with who you necessarily think are the best projected players, but with the players who you think if they do well give you the best chance to finish in first place.

That statement may not make much sense at first, so let me explain. Let's start with two players. Player A is projected for 17.5 fantasy points and given a matchup against a bottom dwelling team, is expected to be see around a 40% ownership number. Player B is projected for 15.0 fantasy points and in a perceived tougher matchup is expected to see around 8% ownership.

Given solely the projected fantasy points you would likely select Player A every time, as he's projected 2.5 points higher. However, this is where the part about selecting the player who gives you the best chance to win comes into play. If you have Player A, no matter how good they do, you are still going to be tied with 40% of the field. If you have Player B that number shrinks to 8% of the field. Is the extra 2.5 fantasy points, the equivalent of less than two shots on goal, worth competing with the extra 32% of the field? That answer is no.

Of course that doesn't mean you should never play Player A in that example, or that you can't win with that player, but it's a good exercise to show you that more can be involved in building a lineup than just projections. I bring this up today because on this slate there are going to be players on top lines and top power-play units on teams such as Montreal, Detroit, and maybe even someone like Vegas and Vancouver who are going to be 5%, 3%, or maybe even less owned. Max Pacioretty at 3% ownership vs Leon Draisaitl at 30% ownership, despite a very similar projection, is a good example of applying what I talked about above.

To make a long story short, don't be afraid to go against the grain every now and then. Finding low owned players doesn't mean selecting "bad" players just because you want someone who won't be owned, often times you can get very good players that just get lost in the shuffle, like Pacioretty tonight for example. And even though many times this may not work out, when you do connect with a low owned player/stack that puts up a tournament winning effort – you'll find yourself in a better position to actually finish in first place than when you hit on a high owned player/stack and still have so many other lineups to deal with.

I've rambled enough. Let's get into today's slate. All prices are from DraftKings but plays can be applied to any site.

Primary Stacks

Edmonton – Like I mentioned in the opening, this is one of those slates where you have a few obvious spots that the overwhelming majority of the field is going to target – and then you have everyone else. Well, the Oilers are obviously going to be on everyone's radar tonight thanks to the matchup with the lowly Canadiens and the potential debut of Evander Kane ($2,500). If he plays, thanks to DraftKings falling asleep at the wheel, Kane will see ridiculous ownership due to him being the site minimum price. This is a rare example of something you simply cannot fade as he basically needs about three shots on goal and nothing else to pay off his salary. Anything more is a bonus and even if he put up a zero at minimum price it really wouldn't hurt.

As of this writing I am unsure of the lines but I'd imagine Kane is going to see some time with Connor McDavid ($9,000) so the potential here is sky high. I would probably play Kane in every single lineup you make assuming he's in the lineup, but just be cognizant of the fact that when stacking you want to try and be a bit different with the rest of your lineup to diversify from the field.

Toronto – While Detroit is a very respectable 13-7-3 at home this season, the Maple Leafs are catching them at a great time here with the Red Wings on the tail end of a back-to-back. Add in the fact that Toronto is as healthy up front as they've been all season and you've got all signs pointing to the Leafs. I'd be looking at the second line duo of John Tavares ($6,500) and Mitch Marner ($6,300) or using Auston Matthews ($9,200) with someone like Ondrej Kase ($3,800) who helps offset the price tag on Matthews and will see plenty of even strength minutes with the center.

Buffalo – With the big guns going in Toronto and Edmonton, the Sabres are a sneaky stack you can look to for discounts on both salary and ownership. We've been targeting players against the Coyotes all season and there's been little reason to stop, in fact they're also on a back-to-back tonight so that makes the spot even better for Buffalo. The top line of Tage Thompson ($5,900), Alex Tuch ($5,900), and Jeff Skinner ($5,500) is my preferred target.  

Secondary Stacks

Carolina – This could be a bit of a revenge game for Canes, while they've won five of six that loss came to these Devils by a score of 7-4. That one was in New Jersey but the Canes will have the benefit of home ice here. Sebastian Aho ($7,500) put up a very uncharacteristic goose egg in the fantasy point column in a juicy matchup with Ottawa on Thursday, but I fully expect him to bounce back with a strong effort tonight. Teuvo Teravainen ($5,400) makes for a good stacking partner.

Montreal – If you're playing multiple lineups as I often suggest, don't be afraid to throw in some Canadien stacks. It seems crazy but if you remove the team names and zoom out to the big picture – you're getting a fully correlated top line/power play, at home, against a team with defensive and goaltending problems – all for just $12K in salary. That gives you plenty of flexibility with the rest of your lineup if the stack can score a goal or two. The line I'm referencing here would be Nick Suzuki ($4,300), Tyler Toffoli ($5,000), and Artturi Lehkonen ($2,700).

Value Stacks

Here a few affordable stacks you can use to round out your lineups:

Mikael Backlund ($3,500), Blake Coleman ($3,800), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,700)

Travis Boyd ($3,100), Clayton Keller ($4,800), Nick Schmaltz ($2,900)

Cheap Power Play 1 Plugs

C – Boyd ($3,100), Sean Monahan ($3,200), Nico Hischier ($4,200)

W – Nathan Bastian ($2,500), Robby Fabbri ($3,200), Evgenii Dadonov ($3,300)

D – Chris Wideman ($2,500), Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,000), Shayne Gostisbehere ($4,500)

Goalie Picks

Petr Mrazek ($7,400)

Jacob Markstrom ($8,100)

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,900)

Karel Vejmelka ($7,600)

Frederik Andersen ($8,400)

Go check out our DraftKings DFS Player Evaluator over in the Frozen Tools to get another perspective on some plays for tonight's slate.

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!