Ramblings: First-Half Performances from Kadri, Dahlin, and Saros; Kucherov and MacKinnon Updates – February 1

Michael Clifford

2022-02-01

We are approaching the NHL All-Star break, and that means a bit of time to get away from fantasy until they return next week. And once they return following the break, it's a full-on sprint for a few weeks as they start playing their makeup games. For now, it gives us a bit of time to reflect back on the first half of the season, so I'm going to do just that. Here are some first-half fantasy performances that were impressive for one reason or another. These are personal preferences, only. Not much more than that. Some stats from Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick.

Nazem Kadri

It isn't much of a stretch to say that Nazem Kadri was the first-half fantasy MVP. He is currently a top-10 fantasy option and considering where he was drafted before the season, his value is through the roof. He has more assists (41) than games played (40), and then we get to the fact he's on pace for nearly 40 goals. It has put a 100-point season in reach, which is just absurd considering he has one 60-point season to his name, back in 2016-17.

We would naturally assume a lot of pullback, and the team is shooting a career-best 12.6% with him on the ice at 5-on-5. That is high, and will come down, but the team is also generating a career-best in shots and expected goals with him on the ice. There will be pullback, but I don't see him falling off the map.

Rasmus Dahlin

It was a down year in 2021 for Dahlin as he played all 56 games in the shortened season but managed just 23 points. The team was horrific. and he posted a -36 rating, which doesn't speak to his play, necessarily, but just how bad the team was. He is still on pace to finish this season around -20, but he could also break the 50-point mark, and that's more of what we expect from him. He has really helped the team in transition; according to Corey Sznajder's zone exit data, Dahlin is as proficient as names like John Klingberg and Charlie McAvoy on a per 60 rate. He isn't super efficient yet, but he's 21 years old and doing all the heavy lifting for a non-playoff team. He deserves a bit of slack.

There are still concerns here but there are lots of good signs this year, including high-ish shot and shot assist rates, as well as that zone exit rate. He still has a lot more developing to do but he's looked more like the future #1 than he did last season.

Jonathan Huberdeau

We have half a season to go but it would be foolish not to mention what an absolute star Huberdeau has been this year. Heading into Monday night's games, he led the league in points, and it's an unbelievable accomplishment. Not only is he doing that in a league with Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews, but he's doing it without playing much at even strength with Aleksander Barkov.

Honestly, not much to say here. I want to see Huberdeau grab the Art Ross Trophy this year, if only to change things up from the usual winners over the last five years. That Florida team is something else to watch.

Juuse Saros

It isn't as if Juuse Saros has the perfect peripherals or anything, though a .927 save percentage is truly superb. It's that he leads the league in starts with 37 and has maintained a top-5 save percentage in the league while doing so. With the Central having a few pretty good teams, Nashville could have been in real tough with anything approaching league-average save percentage. They are 10 points clear of Dallas, which gives them a comfortable lead, but Dallas does have some games in hand. All this is to say: without Saros playing as much as he has, and as well as he has, this might not be a playoff team by the end of the year.

Nashville has Yaroslav Askarov on the way as a first-round pick. Saros also only turns 27 years old in April and he has very good high-danger save percentage and goals saved above average numbers over the last three years. The goaltending situation is interesting.

Seth Jones

On his current pace, Seth Jones will cruise past 50 points for just the second time in his career. A little bit of a hot streak could also see him break his career-high of 57 points set four years ago. He is hitting less than he did last year, but he's also blocking more shots (thanks, Chicago!), and he has a four-year high in shots on goal per game. His only big problem is plus/minus, so anyone rostering him in leagues without that category is reaping rewards here.

He also has zero goals on 19 shots with the man advantage this year. He had four goals on his previous 33 power-play shots, so he could see a bump there the rest of the way. More power-play goals could help push him to 60 points, but that is still a bit optimistic.

Ilya Sorokin

He has had a couple tough starts of late, but from his first home start in mid-November through to mid-January, Sorokin put up an outstanding .932 save percentage across 12 starts. The team only won half those games, but they are still somewhat in the playoff race because of that performance. If he performs close to league average for those dozen games, the Islanders may go something like 2-6-4 in that span instead, and there are no playoff hopes at all.

The problem here is that he was probably a top-10 goalie off the board in the preseason, or close to it, so there hasn't been tremendous draft value recouped. He has been excellent, but the team has been largely bad. Hockey is cruel, sometimes. 

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Adam Fox

We could name a handful of players the Rangers need to thank, with Igor Shesterkin and Chris Kreider at the top of the list. Fox, though, is playing to a Norris Trophy-calibre level again and on a team that isn't as deep defensively as some other contenders, and that's crucial. They couldn't afford to have him play like a #2 defenceman this year, and he's not only playing as a #1, he's playing like he's one of the four or five best blue liners in hockey.

That play, combined with a lot of minutes on a top PP unit, has Fox on pace to surpass a point-per-game season. One thing to watch is his IPP, or individual points percentage, at 5-on-5. Only two d-men from 2019-21 managed an IPP over 50% and no one was over 56%; Fox is at 62% this year. Regression here could hurt his even-strength production. There is no reason to think his production will just crater, though. Enjoy the ride.

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Nikita Kucherov was not at practice on Monday:

This is notable because he went on the COVID list a week ago, and with the new five-day clearance rule, he would have been able to return on Monday if he were up to it. I will say is that this team has just one game before the All-Star break, and Tampa is comfortably on their way to a playoff spot. Kucherov has clearly been fighting injuries of some sort most of the year, and this would be a chance to give him a two-week break in the middle of the season. Not a bad reprieve when this team is looking for a three-peat this year. Or he could just genuinely need more time to recover from his COVID case, as some players have.

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Jordan Greenway has signed an extension:

In cap leagues, he's probably still worth it. He can be a 35-point-ish forward with nearly two hits per game and about 1.5 shots. That can be passable in banger leagues for a cap hit of $3M. In non-banger leagues, that's an easy pass, it seems.

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A quick update on Nathan MacKinnon

If he can return immediately following the All-Star break – or a week from now – that would only mean a few games missed when things looked so much worse initially. We will see if the team's hopes align with reality but it does seem as if MacKinnon may have avoided more serious injury.

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