Fantasy Mailbag: D. Toews; Kyrou; Fox; Goalie Workhorses and Streamers; Kakko v. Lafreniere; Stephenson & More

Rick Roos

2022-02-02

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Jamie)

I'm in a 20 team, dynasty, cap (NHL Salary Cap) H2H league with categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK, Special team points, FOW, Takeaways, plus five goalie categories.

I currently have Nathan Mackinnon, Bo Horvat, David Pastrnak, Jordan Kyrou and Matt Dumba as players whose contracts all expire after 2022-23, which is also when our cap is resetting, so hopefully I'll have a bit more of a cushion, plus teams are allowed to acquire extra salary via other teams in case I want to go down that road. Other notable players on my team include Brad Marchand, Neal Pionk, Evgeni Malkin, Andrew Mangiapane, John Tavares, and Devon Toews, to go along with Jack Campbell, Thatcher Demko, and, in the minors, Jake Oettinger, as my goalies.

I picked up Tavares for free, so if I have to drop him in the offseason it won't mean me having lost a major investment. Even with the cap resetting though, I won't be able to afford all of the players once their contracts expire in 2023. Who would you trade and when?

Dumba and Horvat are guys to look to move. Dumba is okay, plus is a nice stat stuffer; but it's now become clear that his stretch of great play from 2017 through 2019 was not something he's likely to reproduce. As for Horvat, even if J.T. Miller doesn't re-sign with the Canucks in 2023, chances are Elias Pettersson takes over at first line center, leaving Horvat – who I definitely see staying in Vancouver – to continue to be relegated to the second line and all the tough assignments. Yes, he probably will keep a spot on PP1, but things won't get better than they are, and as of now they're not that great. I'd take what you can get in trade for Dumba and/or Horvat, whether in the form of added cap space or less talented but cheaper players. Ideally you'd time their trades for when they're playing well, either this season or next, although probably this season so their looming new contracts are less evident.

Kyrou is a tough one. His IPP at ES (85.3%) is quite high, but it was last season too (74.5%), suggesting he's not only talented but has a nose for scoring. That having been said, his IPP on the PP is 100%, versus 75% last season, so rather than him scoring at an 88-point rate as he is now, his production rate would be 75 if his IPPs were the same as last season. Still, his ice times at ES and on the PP are well under what they could be, especially since David Perron (UFA) and/or Vladimir Tarasenko (trade) might be gone before the puck drops for 2022-23, freeing up two spots on PP1 plus more minutes. All things considered, Kyrou looks like he is shaping up to be a very strong player.

When – if ever – might Kyrou's value be higher than it is now? Take for example a player like Anze Kopitar. Yes, I realize it's going back a ways; but when Kopitar posted 77 points in his second full season, his value was sky high. He then proceeded to produce at a similar rate for roughly the next decade. He was always seen as a solid fantasy asset; however, the hype died down, as poolies covet new shiny toys – that is, a player's value is often highest when he first breaks out, especially if he doesn't subsequently take it to the next level.

While Kyrou looks poised for long-term success, will his value ever be higher? Perhaps not. Yes, he was a big scorer in his last season of juniors and for the moment his salary is nice and low; but even if somehow, despite his elevated IPPs, he continued to do as well as he is now and maybe even slightly improved over time, it probably won't be with the same "buzz" as there is now plus it'll earn him a big raise come 2023. The term "selling high" isn't just about selling when a player is doing well, but also when accompanying hype is there, and for Kyrou I think both apply and, as such, he's a guy I'd at least dangle in trade to see what he might fetch in return. After all, you can always turn down offers.

I also like Devon Toews as a sell this season. Make no mistake, he's a talented player. I also understand there's lure in holding onto a guy tethered to Cale Makar, as Toews will pick up points just by being on the ice at the same time as the supremely-talented Makar. But what we're seeing now can't continue in view of Toews' lack of PP minutes. The concern in trading him though is that other GMs will be rightfully skeptical as to whether Toews can continue to do what he's doing, such that what he'd likely fetch in return might be less than what you'd hope to get. Still, unless you only receive lowball offers for him I'd deal Toews this season and let him be on another GM's roster when he comes back to earth.

I'd also give strong consideration to trading one of your goalies. They only account for a third of your categories, and, with Oettinger poised to be the starter in Dallas if not next season then by no later than 2023-24, you will have more than you seemingly need. If you do move one of them, it likely should be Campbell. Even though his level of played has slipped recently, he's going to be in line for a major raise as a UFA; and I worry about a career journeyman suddenly performing as well as he has during the same season in which he happens to be playing for a new contract. I'd give strong consideration to moving him sooner rather than later, as that reduces the risk of his numbers further declining and it also helps disguise the fact that he's an impending UFA who's due for a big raise. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Brett)

I'm in a 10 team, H2H league starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1U, 2G, plus with 4 bench spots. There's a minimum of three goalie starts per week. Categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, FW, HIT, W, GAA, SV% and SO. It's a very limited keeper, as each team can keep up to two players, and only can keep a player once. Players are kept in the round they're drafted, except free agents, who, if kept, are kept in the last round (i.e., 17th).

As I write this, I'm in second place and want to solidify my goaltenders for the playoffs. My current goalies are Robin Lehner and Thatcher Demko. I've had a rotating cast of 3rd goalies, most recently Tuukka Rask and Pavel Francouz. Also, as I write this, Alex Nedeljkovic is available on the waiver wire. If kept, Demko would be a 10th rounder, while Lehner I'm almost certain I won't keep given that I drafted him early. Do you think I should continue to roll with Lehner and Demko plus stream the third goalie spot? Or should I consider locking one of Rask, Neds or Francouz into my line-up?

If guys like Francouz, Nedeljkovic and Rask are/were all still available on the waiver wire this far into the season, it strikes me that streaming is a viable strategy for this league, as it'd be one thing if the waiver wire had only netminder scraps, but these are guys who can be slotted into and out of your line-up to produce good numbers based on favorable match-ups. A first question thus becomes whether Lehner and/or Demko should be considered as candidates for streaming or if they're too good to risk letting them be grabbed by another team.

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I think Demko should stay on your team, i.e., not be streamed. Last season he was better than his stats would indicate, as his GSAA ranked him 11th in the entire NHL despite everyone above him having a better SV% and GAA. This season his Goalie Point Share ranks him 8th in the entire NHL, with those behind him including John Gibson, Jacob Markstrom, Connor Hellebuyck and Frederik Andersen to name just a few. Yes, to some degree that is based on his start volume, and in your league workhorses aren't as great as they are in leagues which count SVs instead of SV%. Still though, he's nice to have for wins and SO, letting you stream guys who can help in the other categories.

Lehner has certainly underperformed, plus lived up to his Band-Aid Boy status. Still though, his talent is unquestioned, as is his ironclad lock on the Vegas starting netminder gig. But I'd look at Lehner as more of your #2 goalie at this point, meaning you likely start Demko in nearly all his games, whereas Lehner would start based on who Vegas is playing and/or how Lehner's numbers have been in his recent games, rather than every game. But Lehner's upside is too high to risk putting into a stream rotation.

The question then becomes whether to grab and hold any of Francouz, Rask, or Nedeljkovic, or to just continue streaming that third slot as you've been. Of the three, I like Rask least. His 2020-21 seems better than it was, as more than one in five of his starts were really bad starts and his strongest play came in the latter part of the season. For 2021-22, however, he might not have the time to work kinks out like he did last season, is a year older, plus has to contend with Linus Ullmark, whose contract is such that he's all but assured to start on a regular basis.

Francouz, after a lost 2020-21, is starting to look like the netminder who pushed Philipp Grubauer for the starting job back in 2019-20. His team is strong and he's shown he can play well. Moreover, if you do continue to put him back on the waiver wire he might get snagged by another team, most likely the one that also owns Darcy Kuemper, who hasn't played very well and, as per usual, has been bitten by the injury bug.

Nedeljkovic is intriguing too, as he's hitting his stride like he did as the 2020-21 season progressed. He's also playing regularly, which you don't need but another GM in your league might. There is a concern in that Detroit, although vastly improved, is still nowhere near the team Colorado or Boston are. I also realize Neds is tempting due to him possibly being a very cheap keeper option for 2022-23, when both he and the Red Wings should be even better. In a keep two league with each team only starting two goalies I don't think many would keep one, and even if they did Neds wouldn't pass the sniff test as a keeper even if he plays top quality hockey over the rest of the season.

In the end, you should run with either Demko, Lehner and one of Francouz and Neds, or continue to do what you've been doing, namely stream your third goalie spot. But which is it? The more I think about it, the more I like the streaming option.

I think the deciding factor is that you only need three minimum starts per week, which makes settling on three "permanent" goalies unnecessary. Yes, a fellow GM could latch onto Francouz or Neds, or even Rask; however, locking onto Neds would put you in a bind as to who to play and when. That would be less of an issue with Francouz or Rask; however, Francouz plays for a high scoring team where I worry his peripherals might not be as strong as they were two seasons ago, while as noted I think Rask is showing his age and might not have time to get fully up to speed during the regular season. So I'd lean on Demko, and, to a lesser extent Lehner, streaming third goalies based on opponents or trends. It's worked well for you thus far and I think it should continue to do so. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Dwayne)

I'm in a 10 team H2H, unlimited keeper league with a 5 round draft. Waiver wire pick-ups are also unlimited. Lineups are set daily and consist of 3C, 6W, 4D and 2G, plus 5 Bench and 2 IR spots, as well as 7 players in the "minors" who can be moved to the active roster, with minors qualification being, for skaters, having played in under 100 NHL games at the start of the season, and, for goalies, having played in fewer than 50 NHL games. Players can go back and forth to and from the minors without losing their "minors" status. There are no restrictions on keepers, other than no more than a total of three goalies can be kept. Categories are equally weighted and include G, A, Pts, +/-, PPPts, SOG, HIT, BLK, GAA, SV%, SV and W.

The backstory is 2 years ago I Inherited a roster of players well past their prime and decided to embark upon a rebuild focusing on youth and hoping to contend in 3 years. My roster, with players eligible for the minors designated with "(M)") consists of Ivan Barbashev Andre Burakovsky, Kirill Kaprizov (M), Anton Lundell (M), Dylan Cozens (M), Kirby Dach (M), Pierre-Luc Dubois, Joel Farabee, Roope Hintz, Jack Quinn (M), Philip Tomasino (M), Robert Thomas, Troy Terry, Jesper Bratt, Lawson Crouse, Mason McTavish (M), Dawson Mercer (M), Marco Rossi (M), Alexander Holtz (M), Rasmus Dahlin, Mario Ferraro, Cale Makar, MacKenzie Weeger, Nicolas Hague (M), Rasmus Sandin (M), Mackenzie Blackwood, Alex Nedeljkovic (M), Kaapo Kahkonen (M) and Yaroslav Askarov (M). As I write this, Dach and Hague are on IR, so I'll need to drop two players to make room for them, assuming no one will be IR-eligible. Which two would you drop?

First off, this is very respectable for a squad that's only two years into a full-on rebuild. Well done! One thing you didn't mention, but I think you should consider, is a two-for-one trade. As it so happens I think you have two candidates in Ivan Barbashev and Mackenzie Blackwood.

Barbashev has come from nowhere, and I can't see his value ever being higher, what with a SH% that is unsustainably high and PPPts which far exceed what he should have in view of his PP time. Don't get me wrong – he could be a 45-50 point player going forward, especially if, as expected, David Perron leaves as a UFA and/or if Vladimir Tarasenko gets traded. But it's called selling high for a reason, and you should seize upon his value and the hype surrounding Barbashev to help obtain a better asset. As for Blackwood, I covered him in a Goldipucks column, where I said his outlook was not promising. Sure enough, he's faring poorly again. Simply put, given his metrics and past comparables I don't think he has the make-up of a #1 goalie and, as such, the window for trading him to get anywhere near decent value in return is closing fast. You don't want to be holding him when people realize he's not going to make it over the long haul. Trading him also solves the dilemma of too many goalies to keep.

If you're hesitant to trade one of those two, you could consider Weegar, who is showing he's indeed a solid d-man but likely is a by-product of not only the up tempo Florida offense but also playing alongside Aaron Ekblad. Like Barbashev, I don't expect the bottom to fall out from under Weegar; however, I don't think he's a good bet to continue to produce at the rate we've seen from him this season and last.

As to who to drop, the names that jump out are Ferarro and Hague, especially since Hague will no longer be minors eligible. Both are nice stat stuffers; but neither is so valuable as to require being kept. I'd probably cut Hague, as although he likely will be more plus and get more points, his OZ% is dropping and his SH ice time is rising. Ferarro is a pure defensive defenseman, but he is unbelievable in hits and blocks plus San Jose is an improving team, so a rising tide should lift his boat in terms of points.

So drop Hague and try to trade Barbashev and Blackwood for an upgraded player, probably a rearguard given you're dropping Hague. If you're not on board with trading one of those two, swap in Weegar; and if you'd prefer to keep Hague over Ferraro, I could get behind that. If somehow you can't put together a two-for-one deal, I'd still drop Hague and probably would let Blackwood go too. Good luck, and congrats again on how well your rebuild has gone so far!

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Question #4 (from Patrick)

What's going on with Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko? I realize they're only in their third (Kakko) and second (Lafreniere) seasons, but shouldn't they be starting to figure things out? I realize these are unusual times; however, that hasn't stopped Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, and Lucas Raymond from doing well. Is there reason to be patient and optimistic?

These sentiments are likely shared by many poolies who invested early picks or traded significant assets to obtain one or both youngsters, only to be left wondering whether – and, if so, when – their level of production will come close to what was expected. But are they doing that poorly in terms of what their production should be? Let's look at comparables. Unless something markedly changes, by the time this season is over Kakko will have played 48 games in three seasons by age 20 (his age as of February 1st makes this his age 20 season) and not averaged either a point per every other game nor two SOG per game in any, while Lafreniere's scoring is even lower (not even 0.4 points per game) and he takes fewer SOG per game (not even 1.5). Let's not forget Lafreniere was 19 as a rookie, not 18 like Kakko.

Looking at other wingers who, dating back to 1990-91, played 40+ games in three seasons by age 20 yet failed to average 2.0 SOG or 0.5 points per game in any of those campaigns, we get just one match in Dainus Zubrus, who eventually topped out at three seasons above 60 point production but never was an elite player. Ten others, like Lafreniere, met the criteria in two seasons by age 20; and although those include some who went on to significant (Shane Doan) and moderate (Andre Burakovsky, Radek Dvorak, Valeri Nichiuskin, Tom Wilson), success, half never topped 40 points in any season of their career, with all but one being – like Kakko and Lafreniere – first round picks. Based on percentages, that would suggest one of the two will be a bust, and the other should experience at least some success, although the chances of becoming as great as was expected, at least based on past comparables, is unlikely.

There's also the fact that each plays for the Rangers, which is a bit of a blessing and curse. The team has a lot of talent at forward, making it so neither Kakko nor Lafreniere is tasked with being a "the guy" type of player. Still, despite there being no pressure and this season both having been used primarily within the top six, they're not producing. A spot on the very good Ranger PP1 could help, and one should become available if Ryan Strome leaves as a UFA. Will that really elevate them when they've yet to be able to capitalize on being deployed alongside New York's best forwards at ES?

While I don't think it's time to officially push the panic button, especially since neither one has hit his 200-game breakout threshold and they've been playing under highly unusual circumstances due to the pandemic, the career trajectories of players with comparable stats are troubling, as is the duo's failure to be able to step up their games this season when playing with the likes of Strome, Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and Chris Kreider. If I owned either one, I'd probably hold and hope, as the days of being able to trade them for good value are behind us, and selling them for pennies on the dollar seems like it doesn't make sense in case they do figure things out. If you're short on keeper spots though, I think both can be put back into the pile and, if desired, redrafted. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Robert)

With Jack Eichel returning in the next several weeks, where does that leave Chandler Stephenson in Vegas? I can't imagine the Golden Knights wouldn't give Eichel a very long look with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. And given that the line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith has been together for several years, does that relegate Stephenson to the third line despite how well he's played? How do you see things unfolding, and would it be wise to try and trade Stephenson now in my league before his value might plummet?

Your question is likely one that's foremost on the mind of many Stephenson owners right now, as he went from being seen as an arguably "along for the ride" beneficiary of playing with Stone and Pacioretty last season to a player who's proven he can produce in his own right, as for 2020-21 about 40% of his ES points have come without Stone or Pacioretty on the ice.

The issue is Stephenson is a pure center who would not be a candidate to shift to wing, as he doesn't shoot nearly enough and has a pass-first mentality. Eichel we know won't be moving to wing, so how does this then play out? One way is for Vegas to try and stack their top three lines with two each of Eichel, Stone, Pacioretty, Stephenson, Marchessault, Smith, and Karlsson, plus one line with three of them together. Although the thinking is that such an approach would hurt everyone, look at how well it's worked in St. Louis this season.

Another possibility is for Stephenson to be trialed on the second line in place of Karlsson, who has been the weak link on that line for the 2021-22 season. Stephenson's value almost assuredly would take a hit; however, it's better than being relegated to the third line with Vegas' scraps, again of course assuming Eichel centers Stone and Patches.

Also, Vegas uses a four forward PP1, which, when everyone has been healthy this season, includes Stephenson, Pacioretty, Stone and Evgenii Dadonov. It's quite possible Stephenson stays put even once Eichel arrives, pushing aside Dadonov, who, after several seasons with very solid PP output when he was with Florida, was downright terrible in that area for the Senators in 2020-21 and this season is faring markedly worse than Stephenson.

A "real hockey" trade also could be the answer, as Vegas could look to try and move Karlsson, although his salary is quite high in view of his declining production. If Vegas dangles a solid prospect plus offers to retain some of his salary then Karlsson might be shipped out, making it so Stephenson could slot between Marchessault and Smith. Definitely not the same as Stone and Pacioretty, but maybe not too different, as Marchessault shoots a lot, ala Pacioretty, and Smith also shoots a fair amount, making them good complements to Stephenson.

The other reality is trading Stephenson within your league(s) is unlikely to be beneficial, as other GMs would not value him highly because they question his sudden boost in production and/or due to the imminent arrival of Eichel. Sure – you could point out how well he's done in his own right; but I'm guessing they'll still be too skeptical. The best thing to do is to hold and hope for him to stay on PP1 and for the Knights to either divide their top seven players into three "top six" quality lines, or for Stephenson to push aside Karlsson for second line center duties. In the end, Stephenson's production likely will take a hit; but he's shown enough – including away from Stone and Pacioretty – to suggest he can score in his own right. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Rich)

I've been doing fantasy hockey for long enough to remember the era of workhorse goalies like Martin Brodeur and Miikka Kiprusoff starting 70+ games pretty much every season. It happened in the last decade or so with guys like Braden Holtby, Henrik Lundqvist, and Pekka Rinne; but goalies today aren't being leaned on like they were, or at least so it seems. Why do you think that is, and could you see a universe where things go full circle and 70+ starts become a regular occurrence again?

You're definitely not wrong that 70+ starts for a goalie has become a far more rare occurrence in recent times, as there were eight instances of a goalie starting 70+ games last decade, versus 35 the previous decade. Interestingly, when looking at goalies who hit that threshold since 2000-01, it's not always the best of the best, as for every one of those guys you listed there's an Arturs Irbe, Andrew Raycroft, Cam Talbot, Tommy Salo, and Craig Anderson. That having been said, of those 44 instances just under half were accounted for by only four goalies – Brodeur (eight), Kiprusoff (six), Luongo (four), and Lundqvist (three).

Thus, you can't make the argument that teams don't want to overwork their top goalies for fear of them getting injured, as those four were arguably the most important players on their respective teams in most if not all of those years. Why, then, has it happened less and less over time? I think for one there started to be better quality back-ups. But perhaps it was teams noticing that playing a goalie that much didn't equate to an optimal season, as the last campaign in which a 70+ start goalie led his team to a Cup win was in 1999-2000.

Just when you might've thought we'd witnessed the end of the era of several goalies having the potential for 70+ starts in the same season, we see guys like Thatcher Demko and Juuse Saros who, along with perennial workhorses Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy, have started a far higher percentage of games for their teams than others in years passed, not accounting for games Demko missed to COVID. It's as if teams have seen what's happened with the likes of Hellebuyck and Vas and are dipping their toes back in the water to see whether this is something that makes sense to do if indeed their #1 netminder is arguably their best player.

If I'm in a keeper that rewards playing volume, the "secret is out" already on Hellebuyck and Vas; but I'm looking to grab Saros and Demko, plus someone like Tristan Jarry, as it appears their teams are leaning on them to an extent that squads haven't in recent memory. What other goalies might be candidates to be heavy volume starters? It's tough to say, but I wouldn't be shocked if Alex Nedeljkovic becomes a 60+ start, true #1 in Detroit, and I think that in time we might see Igor Shesterkin play a lot more than he has, as let's not forget all his time in the KHL and his early experience in the NHL were with abbreviated seasons so his volume is being upped slowly. Once Barry Trotz is fired or after his contract ends after 2022-2023, which is also when Semyon Varlamov is a UFA, we should expect Ilya Sorokin to play a lot of games. Don't forget he started the first nine for the Isles this season when Varly was hurt, allowing just eight total goals in the last seven of those starts. Although it's still early, look for Jake Oettinger to perhaps be a workhorse in a couple of years once the crease becomes his in Dallas.

So yes, I do think we might be seeing – or be on the verge of seeing – a rebirth of the workhorse goalie, with the names I mentioned being the most likely to fit the criteria. And as said, this is important in leagues with categories which reward playing volume, like SV, W, SO, but also in others since you can grab talented back-ups who might not play as much but when they do play they help you in the other categories like GAA and SV%. Good luck!

Question #Y (from Ryu)

I'd like to get your opinion on a trade offer I'm considering. First, here are pertinent details.

It's a 14 team, H2H (total categories won each week goes to overall points total) league with 8 keepers and categories of G, A, PPP, SOG, PIM, +/- , W, SV, GAA, SV%. Each team has 18 roster spots, starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 2F, 3D, 1G, plus 6 bench. As of now my keepers are likely to be Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Johnny Gaudreau, and Dylan Larkin, with three other notables being Lucas Raymond, Nick Suzuki, and Jake Oettinger.

I'm disappointed that there likely won't be a place for Raymond or Suzuki to be kept, as I think big things are in store for both. I don’t like keeping goalies even though they are important in our league, only one starts and I think they're too unpredictable from year to year aside from a select few, and Oettinger wouldn't fit the criteria, at least not at this stage, or so it would seem.

The offer on the table is:

I trade away: Mitch Marner and Dylan Larkin

I receive: Adam Fox and Andrew Mangiapane

Question 1: Do you think this is a good trade if I get Fox to strengthen/diversify my keepers moving forward, even though Mangiapane not only wouldn't be kept but might not even play for me now?

Question 2: If I make the trade should I keep Suzuki, Raymond or Oettinger in the newly opened eighth keeper spot?

Looking at your keepers, they're stacked for a 14 team league; plus, with guys like Raymond and Suzuki as options, your can "afford" to make the deal. The question thus becomes whether losing Marner and Larkin would put your team in a worse position, even with getting Fox in return and, in so doing, giving you a defenseman keeper which you currently don't have.

One piece of missing information is how the other team looks. Is this a team you perceive as a threat? If so, would this trade improve them more than it would you? Far too often GMs look at a deal solely in terms of the impact it'd have on their own team, rather than vis-à-vis the big picture. Whether this other team is already strong, versus middle of the road or rebuilding, does matter. If you see them as major competition, maybe think twice about the deal if it would make them more improved than you.

For sure if you proceed I'd try to have the deal be for Fox and a draft pick rather than for Fox and Mangiapane, who not only – as you noted – would not be a keeper for you but also would be unlikely to make an impact on your team this season. Yes, a draft pick likely won't be superb when 112 players are kept; but at least this way you can get something in return that you can and will use.

With all that out of the way, let's look at the deal. Fox has an overall IPP of 62.7% and a 69.0% on the PP, both of which are quite high. In fact, each are more than ten percentage points higher than the same numbers for Cale Makar. There's also Fox's SOG total being below 2.0. That might not seem important, but based on past comparables it is, as of the total 156 instances of rearguards averaging even 0.9 points per game in 40+ games, translating to a 74 point pace, just seven failed to average two SOG per game. As such and I don't put much stock in Fox being as great as he's been this season thus far.

Make no mistake – Fox is clearly very, very good, as is the situation he's in. But I think he's more likely a 70-point defenseman, if even that, than the better than point per game rearguard he is this season thus far. Plus, unless this other team has a surplus of top tier d-men, you have to wonder why they're willing to let Fox go. I think this other GM is trying to cash in while Fox is unsustainably excelling, before the inevitable regression occurs.  In other words, they're trying to sell high.

Although you can afford to do this deal, I think you pass because the price is too high for Fox. If you still want Fox though, I'd counter with just Marner plus a draft pick of your own, allowing you to keep Larkin and still land Fox.

Not that it matters given my advice, but I'd rank Suzuki a bit higher than I would Raymond, as Suzuki is "the guy" on Montreal already whereas Raymond not only has slowed a lot since his scorching first two dozen games, but he also plays the same position as Jakub Vrana, who'll be back sooner rather than later and might push Raymond down to the second line. Raymond still likely has a bright future, and he plays wing rather than center; however, positions don't matter as much in your league due to the two "F" slots, and I like Suzuki as the better player of the two long-term and also as a solid choice for the next few seasons. Oettinger looks poised for success too; however, if you're not inclined to keep goalies in general, he shouldn't cause you to rethink that approach at this stage of his career. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.

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Top Skater Views

  Players Team
RYAN LEONARD WSH
NAZEM KADRI COL
OWEN TIPPETT PHI
ROOPE HINTZ DAL
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JAKUB DOBES MTL
JET GREAVES CBJ
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LINUS ULLMARK OTT
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
15.5 NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN GABRIEL LANDESKOG
10.6 JOEL KIVIRANTA PARKER KELLY JACK DRURY
9.8 BROCK NELSON MARTIN NECAS NAZEM KADRI

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