Looking Ahead: Stack the Senators
Andrew Santillo
2022-02-04
Happy All-Star break all! We've made it to the halfway point so to speak in the season. Whether or not you're a fan of the all-star game and skills competitions (most likely age dependent) is one thing, but I do think the All-Star Game is a great snapshot of who mattered in each season. If you find yourself missing hockey this weekend and have some free time tune in, might be a fun watch.
Wanted to give a quick thought too on what took place at the Blackhawks' townhall last night. All I'm going to say is this: Dysfunctional organizations do dysfunctional things, simple as that. With that, let's dive in.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Alex Formenton, LW, Ottawa Senators (Available in 99% of ESPN leagues, 68% Fantrax, 94% Yahoo) – Want to start by saying that I've wanted to write about Formenton for a couple of weeks now but haven't really found the right spot to highlight him in a Looking Ahead. Now is as good as time as any as Formenton and the schedule could be your best friends here coming up.
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Sens will play six games in ten days, and with the number of clubs that are going to see little if any play coming back, that is a very advantageous spot for Senators fantasy owners. I don't think the last part of that sentence has never been typed in the history of spoken word.
In addition to the schedule, Formenton is a player that I really like. He has nine goals and ten assists so far in his rookie campaign and this past week has seen his average time on ice go up to 18:36 from his season average of around 14:30. Besides liking his upside, I think he makes a great addition playing consistently on Ottawa's second line as they have shifted around their top line as of late due to COVID issues and injuries. I can't stress enough how much I think fantasy owners can sometimes overlook the schedule when looking to add a player. With more games than any club moving into next week you'll be a leg up in your matchup with a greater number of starts.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Matt Boldy, LW, Minnesota Wild (Available in 88% of ESPN leagues, 45% Fantrax, 81% Yahoo) – Remember how last season one of the narratives going into the trade deadline was that the Wild were a winger short? As this season's trade deadline approaches, that's not so much the case because of the emergence of a very exciting prospect in Boldy. Potential is tantalizing, and I think the Wild have something special on their club moving forward.
Boldy passed the nine-game mark in games played last week, meaning that Minnesota has no plans to send him down to Iowa to save on his entry-level contract. He's here to stay and that's really great news if you're in need of scoring on your fantasy team. Boldy has six points in his past four games and is playing on the opposite wing from Kevin Fiala who looks extremely comfortable with Boldy, tallying a point in each of his past twelve games played.
Boldy's ice time has been a tad on the low side at around 15 minutes, but I think part of this has to do with Minnesota having the luxury of sending out their bottom six in lopsided games. In the past week alone, the Wild have outscored their opponents 25-8. Boldy also see's time on Minnesota's top power play unit, and while that group ranks 18th in the league in power play goals (25), that just adds to his fantasy value playing with fellow wingers Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. From a DFS prospective, Minnesota's top line is always expensive and usually higher owned, so why not drop down to Boldy on line two? If Boldy is available on your waiver wire, this is claim worth putting in.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vegas Golden Knights (Owned in 98% of ESPN leagues, 95% of Fantrax, 98% Yahoo) – Okay so take away their previous game versus the Sabres, the Knights haven't looked very…Knightsy? Sure, we'll go with Knightsy. They haven't looked very Knightsy lately, especially at home and I think Pietrangelo's offensive struggles have been part of the issue.
If you're rostering Pietro right now, I don't think there's a rush to make a trade or look elsewhere but this is a player who quarterbacks Vegas's top power-play unit and is in a down stretch offensively. He has no points in his past six games and three points in his past 13.
What makes his current slump so difficult is deciding between Pietrangelo and another defender to start on a bigger slate. It's the hardest thing to do in fantasy, benching someone with that high of ownership and the type of offensive upside that he has for a player that may not. I think going forward keep an eye on his shots per game and who is healthy for Vegas to make the best roster decisions when deciding between two or more players.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jordan Eberle, RW, Seattle Kraken (Owned in 62% of ESPN leagues, 61% of Fantrax, 23% Yahoo) – Anyone else's Seattle mock draft look better than the club that they actually put together? Yep, me too. I thought Eberle would at least be a solid player for them on their top line, but thus far that has not exactly been the case.
Eberle has only one point in his past ten games played on a club that struggles to do anything offensively. I think part of the issue here though is his linemates, not so much their skill as players, but the consistency at which Seattle keeps their lines together. There isn't a Kraken offensive line with more than 150 minutes played together so far this season. For Eberle it's also a career low 5v5 percentage at 7.3 and second lowest points per 60 minutes at 1.9. Unless your waiver wire is desperately bare, I think there are better options to go to in the second half.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from February 4 to February 16
Carolina – The Canes have a busy schedule coming back from the break, and that's something any Carolina fantasy owner loves to see. They'll see very tough competition with Toronto, Ottawa, Boston, and Minnesota all on the road, but if there's a club built for a road trip like it's Carolina. The Canes have a league best road record going 15-5-1 away from home ice.
Calgary – Calgary's offense continues to produce. Since the calendar marked 2022, they have the highest expected goals for percentage and second in Cori for percentage. Coming out of the break they'll start a six game homestand, perfect for a club looking to move up from the last Wild Card spot in the West.
Ottawa – As I mentioned earlier, the Sens will play five games next week which is excellent for stacking a lineup on a lighter week as far as games are concerned.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Vegas – With just one game in nine days they're coming in as a Leave Em for the time being. They're one of the higher owned clubs in fantasy so losing out on Vegas starts hurts.
NY Rangers – Another club that plays just once coming back from break. They'll see Boston at home where we should see Igor Shesterkin in net. Probably.
Anaheim – I can't tell if I enjoy watching this Ducks team or not? If you're with me on that we'll have plenty of time to decide, they play just once returning from All-Star weekend.
*Just a note too, the Panthers, Kings, Rangers, and Sharks all have no games scheduled following the All-Star break. If have any players from these clubs on your roster and your matchup runs the typical Monday-Sunday timeframe, or next week is an extension of this week's matchup, it's important to look at how you're going to schedule out the week. My advice, if you have a good team and don't want to risk dropping a player for immediate help, it may be worth waiting it out. I'd rather lose a game now to win one later. If you're league standings are close and you need to get ahead, make the adds that benefit you for this matchup period into next. Remember, there's a solid chance multiple people in your league are working around these light schedules as well.
Friday, February 4th to Thursday, February 10th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina – Away TOR OTT BOS |
New Jersey – Away OTT MTL STL |
Ottawa – Home NJD CAR PIT |
Arizona -Away VAN SEA |
Boston – Home PIT CAR |
Steer Clear |
Philadelphia – Home DET |
Seattle – Home ARI |
St.Louis – Home NJD |
Tampa Bay – Away COL |
Winnipeg – Home MIN |
Saturday, February 5th to Friday, February 11th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Arizona – Away VAN SEA – Home TBL |
Carolina – Away TOR OTT BOS |
Edmonton – Home – VGK CHI NYI |
New Jersey – Away OTT MTL STL |
Ottawa – Home NJD CAR PIT |
Steer Clear |
Seattle – Away PHI |
Tampa Bay – Away WPG |
Toronto – Away DAL |
Vancouver – Home DET |
Vegas – Home NJD |
Sunday, February 6th to Saturday, February 12th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina – Away TOR OTT BOS MIN |
Ottawa – Home NJD CAR PIT BOS |
Arizona – Away VAN SEA – Home TBL |
Boston – Away OTT – Home PIT CAR |
Columbus – Away WSH BUF MTL |
Steer Clear |
Vegas – Away EDM CGY |
Washington – Away MTL – Home CBJ |
Anaheim – Home SEA |
Buffalo – Home CBJ |
Colorado – Home TBL |
Monday, February 7th to Sunday, February 13th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa – Away WSH – Home NJD CAR PIT BOS |
Carolina – Away TOR OTT BOS MIN |
Montreal – Home NJD WSH CBJ BUF |
New Jersey – Away OTT MTL STL – Home PIT |
Arizona – Away VAN SEA – Home TBL |
Steer Clear |
Seattle – Away ANA – Home ARI |
St.Louis – Home NJD CHI |
Tampa Bay – Away COL ARI |
Vegas – Away EDM CGY |
Anaheim – Home SEA |
Tuesday, February 8th to Monday February 14th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton – Away SJS – Home VGK CHI NYI |
Montreal – Home NJD WSH CBJ BUF |
Ottawa – Away WSH – Home CAR PIT BOS |
Winnipeg – Away DAL NSH – Home CHI MIN |
Arizona – Away VAN SEA – Home TBL |
Steer Clear |
St.Louis – Home NJD CHI |
Tampa Bay – Away COL ARI |
Vegas – Away EDM CGY |
Anaheim – Away SEA |
San Jose – Home EDM |
Wednesday, February 9th to Tuesday, February 15th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Calgary – Home VGK TOR NYI CBJ |
Dallas – Away COL – Home NSH WPG COL |
Edmonton – Away SJS LAK – Home CHI EDM |
NY Islanders – Away VAN EDM CGY BUF |
Ottawa – Away WSH – Home PIT BOS STL |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim – Home SEA |
Los Angeles – Home EDM |
NY Rangers – Home BOS |
San Jose – Home EDM |
Vegas – Away CGY |
Thursday, February 10th to Wednesday, February 16th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Calgary – Home TOR NYI CBJ ANA |
Colorado – Away VGK DAL – Home TBL DAL |
Ottawa – Away WSH – Home PIT BOS STL |
Winnipeg – Away DAL NSH – Home CHI MIN |
Boston – Away NYR OTT – Home CAR |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles – Home EDM |
NY Rangers – Home BOS |
San Jose – Home EDM |
Vancouver – Home TOR |
Vegas – Home COL |