Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

This week, we'll examine three players who are nearing their Breakout Threshold (BT). Here's part of Dobber's definition: "Average-sized forwards (between 5-10 and 6-2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) need 200 NHL regular season games to figure it out. At that point, they should show what they will be when fully developed." This isn't the same as peaking, more like the beginning of a player's prime production years. Players that are smaller or bigger than those height/weight guidelines tend to take twice as long, 400 games, to hit their BT. It's important to note that there's an 80/20 rule in terms of accuracy; that is, it's roughly 80% accurate, meaning it will fail to describe the trajectory of 20% of players. Still, this can be an incredibly useful metric to ballpark when a player will experience a jump in production.

The players highlighted here seem more destined to become depth pieces versus stars even if they hit their BT as expected. Other more well-known, higher-upside players to note that fall into this category include Roope Hintz (200 games), Quinn Hughes (174), Nick Suzuki (171), Dominik Kubalik (170), Adam Fox (169), Martin Necas (163), Victor Olofsson (152), Kaapo Kakko (151). Several of these names will be very difficult to acquire in fantasy at this point, but players like Kubalik, Necas, Olofsson, and Kakko still offer intriguing upside and could potentially be acquired at a discount.

Nolan Patrick (VGK)

Patrick should come extremely cheap in fantasy right now and might actually make a decent stash. Everyone knows his draft pedigree and relentless injury history, so most owners want nothing to do with him. Plus you're likely thinking that Jack Eichel will be returning soon and then where will Patrick be? While that's all true, he's still only 23 years old and he's only recently passed his BT, currently sitting at 213 games played. Given his injury history, Patrick will likely need more games than the average player to reach his upside, whatever that ends up being.

But he may be closer than many think.

Vegas has been giving Patrick the Jesperi Kotkaniemi treatment this year—lots of offensive zone starts against the lowest quality competition available—and it seems to be agreeing with him. That sheltering has meant he's played primarily alongside Vegas depth players like Keegan Kolesar, Evgenii Dadonov, and Brett Howden but his lines have dominated scoring chances against other team's 3rd and 4th lines (70+ Corsi For). Even more intriguing is that Patrick has recently earned ice time centering Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone and has five points in his last nine games to show for it. That's a 46-point pace.

But Eichel will return in the next couple of months and get all the best linemates and deployment that Vegas has to offer, right? And Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson certainly slot in ahead of Patrick on the depth chart. Again, that's all true, and Patrick will more than likely end up going down with an injury regardless, but it's interesting to note that Patrick has won 53% of his draws this year and has never been below 50% over his career. The other three are all sub-50%: Stephenson and Karlsson are at 48% and 49% on the year, and Eichel sits at 44% for his career.

Patrick's sample size remains small, but there's enough here to wonder if the Vegas coaching staff won't keep him in a 2C or 3C role and shift either Karlsson or Stephenson to the wing. If he can finally stay healthy and continue earning better linemates and more power play time, Patrick could begin to surprise as he gets his NHL feet under him.

Henri Jokiharju (BUF)

Many were shocked when the Blackhawks shipped Jokiharju to Buffalo for Alexander Nylander a few years ago. He's a mobile, right-handed defenceman who scored at over a point-per-game pace in his second WHL season back in 2017-18, a year after being drafted. He then put up decent production as an AHL and NHL rookie in his D+2 year. But then they traded him to Buffalo, where he's been toiling for the past three years putting up below-replacement level stats across the board.

He hasn't been rosterable in fantasy for a while now, but he's still only 22 years old and had a 45 percent star potential as recently as two years ago in his second NHL season. Here's his profile from Hockey Prospecting. Check out those comparables.

His production this year (28-point pace) has continued to make him non-rosterable but he's currently sitting at 182 NHL games played, meaning he'll hit his BT in 18 games or so. He's playing 60% of his even strength shifts alongside Rasmus Dahlin and the rest alongside Jacob Bryson; both these partners are offensively inclined, which may be forcing him to hang back to cover their rushes. Jokiharju is also seeing almost no power-play time. It's going to be difficult for him to blossom offensively under these circumstances.

His even-strength deployment, however, shows promise. He's driving play against tough opponents and seeing a solid number of offensive-zone starts. Clearly he's a dependable presence on the back end for Buffalo and has demonstrated that he's a top pairing defender.

Plus, things are likely to change for the Sabres in the coming seasons as their young stars like Owen Power, Dylan Cozens, and Peyton Krebs continue to develop. If Buffalo can ship out, say, Bryson and Will Butcher, who are similar players to Jokiharju, that may open up more opportunities for him to see time with the man advantage and score more often. He's almost certainly available for free on the wire, so he makes for a low-risk, decent-reward stash in fantasy right now.

Daniel Sprong (WAS)

Sprong has tantalised fantasy owners for the better part of a decade now since being drafted by Pittsburgh back in 2015. He then bounced around from Pittsburgh to Anaheim to Washington. His talent has always been obvious but just never seemed to get a sustained opportunity in an NHL team's top six. Here's a recent example of what he can do:

When Sprong aged out of the HP model in his D+3 year, he put up a point per game as an AHL rookie, had a modest star potential of 7%, and had favourable comparables like Brad Marchand, Mike Richards, and Tyler Bertuzzi. It's been believed for a while now though that the clock is ticking on Sprong to finally stick somewhere and prove what he can do.

He's currently sitting at 177 NHL games played, meaning he'll likely hit his BT at the end of this year and could make a decent speculative add for fantasy owners in the offseason. Washington is an interesting mix of veterans and upcoming young talent. Alexander Ovechkin (36 years old), Nicklas Backstrom (34), T.J. Oshie (34), and John Carlson (32) represent the Capitals' ageing core, while Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre, Aleksei Protas, Alex Alexeyev, plus young goaltenders Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek, are injecting that core with a shot of dynamic youth. Sprong is still only 24 but is caught somewhere in the middle.

His contract expires at the end of this year, at which point he'll be a restricted free agent. Assuming Washington signs him to a one- or two-year "show me" type bridge deal, the next couple years will likely be make or break for him: can he be an above-average producer who finds a home in their top six or will he become a journeyman depth scorer?

He's been sheltered this year and given decent offensive zone starts and linemates but has struggled to drive play. He also hasn't been as involved in goals scored while he's on the ice as we'd like to see from a scoring forward (54% IPP). The picture certainly looks cloudy for the rare Dutch player.

For fantasy purposes, unless he takes off over the next year after hitting his BT, Sprong will likely remain more of a streamer to pick up during occasional hot streaks than a keeper-level piece. But as with all players approaching their BT, keep an eye on him to see if his deployment, IPP, shots, and play-driving start to improve—those would all be excellent indicators that he's starting to put it all together.

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