Ramblings: Second Half Starts; Eichel and Hughes Updates; Matthews Leaves Game Late – February 8
Michael Clifford
2022-02-08
The stretch run of the NHL season is here. We should be a lot further along in the actual season than we are but with all the postponements earlier in the season, these next few weeks are going to be packed with games. That will bring us to March and the final push of the regular season.
Just a reminder that the NHL's new COVID policy is now in place. No daily testing for vaccinated players and no testing for asymptomatic players. That should stop the postponements over the rest of the season, but there are myriad factors at play here. Just keep in mind that if a player pops positive and isn't playing, it means something different than it did a month ago.
On top of the new testing/playing rules, the taxi squad is gone. Players will have to go through waivers or be recalled as they usually have. That is kind of a bummer because it did allow for a lot of prospects to get some NHL action in. It was one of those unintended consequences that actually worked out in the league's favour.
There are still going to be a lot of moving parts this season. Fingers crossed for no more major hiccups.
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There wasn't a lot in the NHL last night – just two games – so now that the second half is upon us, maybe let's talk about that second half. In short, here are some players, teams, and stories I'm watching for the next 10 weeks.
Eastern Playoff Race
Maybe it wasn't intentional but it's a shame just how many bad teams there are in the East this year. The Metric and the Atlantic have been wrapped up basically since Christmas, and the same eight teams continue to jockey for position.
I bring this up because I wonder what this does to the league this year. Quite literally half the Eastern Conference has a half season left and nothing to play for. There are seasons where teams fall out of the race quickly, but I can't remember half a Conference being basically eliminated from playoff contention by Game 40. In that sense, there's no telling what comes on the horizon. Yes, these guys are professionals and being ultra-competitive all the time is how they got to where they are. At the same time, when there are no team goals left and half a season to go, it's fair to wonder if we'll get their best effort every single night. And, in turn, are the playoff teams trying their hardest now that they're basically assured a playoff spot? Or are they just trying to stay healthy?
These next 2+ months should be very interesting. Including a few of the worst teams in the West, about one-third of the league has little-to-nothing to play for and 35-40 games left on the schedule.
One big piece of news on Monday came from Eichel:
He clearly needs more time to get everything in order, and taking contact is a big step considering his return from neck surgery. But he looks to be on his way back and that is a terrifying prospect for the rest of the West.
Over his previous three seasons, Eichel had 178 points in 166 games playing for one of the worst teams in the league. Over at Evolving Hockey, that production, along with other components, had him as a top-20 forward across the league by Goals Above Replacement (GAR). It might feel redundant to say all this, but it's important to remember he's an elite player who has been stuck on awful teams for a long time. There is no telling which players he skates with but he could be between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone in a couple weeks. That seems pretty good to me!
That is kind of the crux here. There's no real telling where Eichel is going to land in the lineup. My assumption is he goes right to the top line with Chandler Stephenson down on the third line. Of course, this team is very particular about their centres and who they play with, so maybe Eichel starts out on the third line? It seems at least plausible they do that to get him acclimated to the NHL again, seeing as it's been nearly a year since he's played a game.
Kings scorers
While we could name a bunch of people here, I will focus on two wingers that are on the top two lines: Adrian Kempe and Viktor Arvidsson.
As for Kempe, he's coming off an All-Star Game appearance. He already has 19 goals on the year, a career-best by three, and in just 44 contests. It is a fair question as to whether he can keep it up.
Since the start of January, Kempe is well over 2.5 shots per game, which brings him in line with most of his season. In short, it seems the only problem is whether he can maintain his shooting percentage of 15%. I think there's a reasonable chance of that. His individual expected goals per 60 minutes is near 1.0. His previous career-best was 0.61, so it does seem he's taking much more quality shots than at any point of his career. That this is leading to a high shooting percentage makes sense.
On the second line, Viktor Arvidsson has 15 points in 15 games since the calendar turned to 2022. Overall, he could threaten for 60 points for the first time since 2018. He could also threaten for 25 goals, which may not seem like a lot, but he's also shooting under 9%. If he were shooting 15% like Kempe, he would have a 20-goal season already. There is still some upside left here for Arvidsson.
Whether the Kings make the postseason will largely rely on Kempe and Arvidsson scoring as they have. They both seem to have a reasonable shot at doing so.
Remember him? He was traded last season for Anthony Mantha but has missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury. We won't dig in too much here but he was skating with the team before the All-Star break. It might be worth checking waiver wires just in case.
Cole Perfetti
It seems as if Cole Perfetti's nine-game tryout came and went without much fanfare, but looks to be on this roster for the rest of the year. He is skating on the second line with Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois, and he's skating nearly 15:30 a game over his last five games. The problem, of course, is that he has just four points in 12 games.
For me, it seems like there may just not be a lot of shots for Perfetti to take. His two line mates shoot a fair bit – one more than the other – and he's still just a rookie. But he is still on the second line and that trio has been absolutely electric in their time together. Is there another gear for Perfetti over the next ~35 games?
How much fantasy value he'll have for the next couple months is tough to say. Nikolaj Ehlers was placed on long-term injured reserve recently so he'll miss at least another week, but can return any time after that. Once he comes back, is there a spot for Perfetti in the top-6? Do they move Blake Wheeler to the third line? New coach and all that, so maybe.
There should be a lot of Perfetti excitement and he's a guy to watch down the stretch. I just hope he can maintain his role because he has more upside in the fantasy game this year if he does.
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Josh Norris update
Sticking with the Sens, Drake Batherson is hopeful to return in a couple weeks.
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Quinn Hughes hits the COVID list:
To complicate matters, while the Canucks are in Vancouver, Hughes is in America. That means he's subject to US/Canada border rules, rather than state/provincial rules. Per Thomas Drance, that means he could miss much more than just a couple games.
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Minnesota announces an update for Matt Dumba:
Dumba has had a nice rebound season, pacing for over 40 points, 170 shots, 70 penalty minutes, and 275 hits+blocks per 82 games this year. Hopefully this won't keep him out long because he is hard to replace with a single waiver add.
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Before the break, I mused in these Ramblings about whether Ville Heinola would be back for the second half. He may be, it appears, to begin anyway:
We'll see what happens once those guys clear later this week, but to see him back in the NHL is a good sign.
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With important players injured on both sides, the Sens took a 4-1 win at home against the Devils on Monday night. Nick Paul and Connor Brown both had a goal and an assist each in this one while Adam Gaudette also scored for Ottawa. Matt Murray saved 32 of 33 for the win, and now has allowed just 13 goals in his last seven games. It has been a nice turnaround for him since a blowout against the Leafs back in early January.
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Late in his game on Monday night, Auston Matthews took an accidental knee to the back of the head from Brett Pesce. It was a weird play where Matthews fell towards the boards as Pesce was circling around, and very much unintentional. Nevertheless, Matthews left the game and did not return. That would clearly be a big loss if he's out for an extended period of time. Let's hope for the best here.
Matthews did have a pair of goals before leaving, by the way, as the game went to overtime. Mitch Marner scored his second of the game to lift the team to a 4-3 win but it's the health of Matthews that is much more important here.