Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Despite the cancellations and reschedulings, each team – other than the Islanders – has now passed the halfway point of the 2021-22 season. Although you might think that means "what you see is what you get" when it comes to players, appearances can be deceiving, which is where Goldipucks comes into play. The three skaters on tap this week are Tage Thompson, Jesper Bratt, and Ivan Provorov. Test your fantasy IQ by trying to determine which of the three is too hot, as well as who is too cold and just right, then read on to learn if your hunches were correct. Data for each player is current through the All-Star break.

Tage Thompson (41 games, 14G, 16A, 130 SOG, 10 PPPts, 17:44 TOI, 2:40 PP, 59.2% PP%)

By the time the towering former first round pick was 19, he was in the midst of his first NHL season, which saw him play 41 games but tally just nine points. Things didn't improve in his second campaign, and his third season saw him miss games due to injury, plus, when he did play, it was mostly in the AHL. The good news is the Sabres were thin enough at forward for him to be back with the big club for 2020-21. Still, his scoring wasn't even at the point per every other game level, and expectations were understandably low entering 2021-22. But to the surprise of most everyone he's broken out this season. Is this just a case of a player doing well because the team has no other options? Or could this be the start of Thompson fulfilling his first round promise? Data suggests the latter.

First off, while it may seem like Thompson is a come from nowhere fantasy success story, there were already signs of life during last season. For one, 12 of his 14 total points came in just his last 23 games, during which he also fired 69 SOG, for an average of exactly three per contest, leading to him finishing 16th among all NHL forwards in SOG per 60 minutes for the season overall, with all but two of the players ranking ahead of him having scored 30+ goals in at least one season. If we look at just those who were ranked ahead of him and who, like Thompson, primarily play center, we see Nathan MacKinnon, Patrice Bergeron, Nazem Kadri, and Auston Matthews. Pretty fine company to say the least.

The other thing to like about Thompson's 2020-21 were his IPPs: 73.7% overall and 100% on the PP. As I've noted many times in my columns, it is always a good sign when players whose breakouts have seemingly come from nowhere also happen to have had solid IPPs in one or more past seasons. That's because it goes a long way toward proving the talent was always there and all that was needed was an opportunity. With Thompson now getting his big chance, in the form of 17:44 per game (2:40 on the PP), he's capitalizing.

How are his IPPs this season? His overall IPP is 66.7%. Although it slipped a bit, it's still plenty high; and it being a tad lower is likely a function of him skating with better players, which means even though he's getting a smaller share of points there are more points being tallied, such that his scoring uptick is very much for real. Once Buffalo improves even further he should as well, with a rising tide lifting all boats, including his.

Thompson's IPP on the PP, however, has stayed quite strong at 76.9%, and it likely should be even higher, as he had just one PPP though his first 17 games, meaning he's since tallied ten in 24 contests. Nearly half his PPPts have come in the form of PPGs, suggesting he's not lucking into man advantage scoring. What's more – even with the slow start, Thompson is still doing better overall than others similarly deployed, as he's received the 81st most PP time among all forwards for the season overall, but ranks 55th in PPPts. Clearly he's a force on the PP; and his overall scoring, which was dragged down by his low PP output to start the season, should see gains in the normal course as he continues to excel on the PP.

Another positive is Thompson doing this with an OZ% of 53.1%, meaning he's not being sheltered as one might expect for a younger player just breaking out. One concern though is his secondary assist rate being 50%, which is above what would be expected for someone who fires more than three SOG per game. Still, some of that likely is due to when he plays center, as in that role he's as much of a playmaker as goal scorer.

What about other comparables? Focusing on 2000-01 forward and looking at players who, like Thompson, where classified as centers and averaged – as he has this season – 0.33+ goals and 0.33+ assists per game plus 3.0+ SOG in the same season by age 24, but didn't score over 65 points, we get one who did so twice – Logan Couture, in 2011-12 at age 22 and 2013-14 at age 24. We know Couture went on to have a very successful career, which perhaps might be what the future has in store for Thompson.

Based on the data, it seems pretty clear that we're not witnessing a short term scoring burst from Thompson, who showed encouraging signs even during what looked like a subpar last season. His metrics are sound, he shoots the puck a lot, and is a force to be reckoned with on the PP. He also plays for the Sabres, which on the one hand will ensure he is locked into a featured role but which also likely will act as a ceiling on his scoring rate, at least for a while. Even still, for 2021-22, Thompson is TOO COLD, and gets a rating of 3.25. I'd look for him to score at a 65+ point rate over the course of the rest of the season, and that's the point rate forecast I'd have for him at least until the Sabres improve on the whole.

Jesper Bratt (42 games, 14G, 27A, 113 SOG, 9 PPPts, 17:02 TOI, 2:28 PP, 54.9% PP%)

Although Bratt wasn't picked until round six in his draft season, he too was in the NHL by age 19. Unlike Thompson he didn't really have growing pains, with nearly point per every other game output in that first season. As a sophomore he rose to a scoring pace of 53 points, opening the eyes of many poolies, only to see his rate drop to 44 points next season before rising back to 53 in 2020-21. Just when it was looking like Bratt would be a solid but not spectacular top six player, he's exploded this season, scoring more points by game 36 than he had tallied in any previous season and flirting with point per game output. Should we look upon Bratt as having arrived, or could this be a prolonged period of unsustainably hot play? From where I sit, it looks like Bratt's nearly point per game output is for real.

The big key with Bratt is in both his 53 point pace seasons, and even his 44 pace campaign, his overall IPPs were all above 70% (80.5%, 71.1%, and 73.2%). The takeaway from this data is clear – Bratt is a player who had a nose for scoring, with his scoring rate not being higher only because of a combination of low ice times and the Devils ranking 25th in the NHL over that three season stretch in total goals scored.

Speaking of ice time, Bratt's have improved this season, as have his linemates; yet his IPP hasn't skipped a beat, standing at 78.8% overall. Even as Bratt is playing more overall and with more skilled players, he's still finding a way to factor into the scoring just as much as he had been in the past. This is a major indicator suggesting sustainability in his scoring. Also, his secondary assist rate, at 51.9%, is actually a notch below where it was last season. Moreover, his PP time per game is essentially unchanged. As such, we have to surmise that Bratt is cut from a scorer's cloth, making his production very real and sustainable.

Is Bratt's point total maxed out? Tough to say. One issue is New Jersey has been rolling with two PP lines, with the result being that no forward on their team has taken the ice for even 58% of the team's PP time, making the Devils just one of three teams (Dallas and San Jose being the others) with a mere one forward who's logged more than 55% of the team's man advantage minutes. That means Bratt likely won't be seeing gains in that area. Still, his SOG rate is 2.7 per game and his total ice time is only 17:02, leaving room for both to rise in the normal course, especially his SOG rate, as his SOG/60 has increased every season of his career thus far. The other positive for this season is although his SOG rate is the highest of his career to date, his SH% is barely above his career average, making it so his increased goal scoring rate is likely sustainable.

Going back to Bratt's ice time, although it's nice to see that it has realistic room to improve just in the normal course, it does seem a little low for someone who's producing as well as he has this season thus far. Past data supports that conclusion, as of the 123 instances of a right wing playing in 70+ games and averaging 0.9+ points per game or better dating back to 2000-01, a total of just three didn't average at least 17:12 per game, with only 19, or 15%, being under 18:00. Combine that with New Jersey still ranking in the bottom third of the league in goals scored this season, and that makes Bratt's seemingly ironclad numbers somewhat more dubious.

How, then, is he doing as well as he is? And based on these comparables, can he continue to produce at this level? Although the comparables suggest no; those seemingly are the only red flags. As noted, he still could shoot more in the normal course, plus his IPP on the PP is 64.3% after it was 72.7%-75.0% in each of his last three seasons, suggesting that while he's not likely to see heaps of PP time, he should have even more PPPts. His secondary assist percentage isn't even close to the level when any major red flags would be raised. Long story short, after looking under every rock I seemingly could've looked, I don't see signs of trouble other than the comparables, which are less worrisome when both a player's luck metrics and his other stats seem sustainable.

Bratt is a perfect example as to why I put so much stock in IPP as a stat, since his numbers there were great even before this season, and have remained so overall while leaving room for more PP scoring, to also go along with more ice time and SOG. Rather than trying to poke holes in Bratt's fantasy ascent, we probably just should accept it, especially since it also happens to be occurring not long after he hit his 200 game breakout threshold, having played in 230 games prior to this season, and him already showing signs of heating up last season with 20 points in his last 25 games. Accordingly, Bratt's 2021-22 has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.75. I think he should finish 2021-22 at or near an 80 point scoring pace and be earmarked for similar production in the next few seasons before perhaps taking it up another notch when New Jersey improves as a team or Bratt gets more minutes overall and on the PP.

Ivan Provorov (42 games, 5G, 12A, 77 SOG, 4 PPPts, 25:00 TOI, 2:24 PP, 47.7% PP%)

Expectations were high from the get go with Provorov, after he produced not one but two point per game seasons in juniors. In the NHL, however, his production has seemed to get stuck in neutral, standing at 38-43 points rate in three of the last four seasons and only once having bested the point per every other game mark. Now he's on pace for one of his worst seasons. Can we count on him rebounding to at least his usual scoring rate? Amazingly, signs point to no, as despite his lack of scoring thus far and given his metrics, it appears he's actually overachieving.

Looking at the data for Provorov, it's just not good. He's under two SOG per game for just the second time in his career, with the first coming when he scored at just a 26-point full-season pace with similar deployment except less PP time. His shooting rate being so low means his SH% isn't below his norm, and he's a d-man who relies a lot on goal scoring. It's concerning that there's precedent for the poor scoring we're seeing from him.

It gets worse. Despite his low point total, Provorov's secondary assist rate stands at 66.7%. Granted, defensemen are expected to get their fair share of secondary assists by virtue of playing that position; but this is too high for someone with only a total of 12 assists. In fact, looking at the more than 40 defensemen who have higher secondary assists percentages but fewer total assists, just one – Jeff Petry – has scored more than 40 points in a prior season.

Might it be that his IPPs are unsustainable low? Nope. His overall IPP (39.5%) is the second highest of his career and his IPP on the PP (57.1%) is higher than the season in which he had his career best 43 point scoring pace. Looking at his IPP numbers as a whole, for the previous three seasons they were 35.6%, 34.6%, and 28.9%. So if there's a silver lining it's that they're on the rise. But then where are the points?

Yes, to some degree the Flyers as a team are struggling, and are on tap to score 2.51 goals per game after averaging 2.94 over the previous five seasons. Still though, fewer goals should more proportionally affect forwards than defensemen, so it's not enough to justify Provorov's poor output. The takeaway is that Provorov is finding a way to factor more into the scoring that occurs, but that when he's on the ice there just isn't a lot of scoring. A high IPP only comes into play if/when goals are actually scored.

There's also the reality that Provorov's real life value is still dictating his deployment, as his OZ% is down slightly from 44.4% in 2020-21 to 43.5% from last season despite the Flyers adding Rasmus Ristolainen. To some degree Provorov is likely paying the price of the team having to shelter Keith Yandle; but Ryan Ellis has been injured for most of the season and had he been playing he'd likely be getting the favorable deployment that's gone to Yandle. Things aren't looking good there either. His OZ% being that low also puts a realistic cap on what he can score, as among the 42 defensemen with lower OZ%, just two (Dmitry Orlov, Cam Fowler) have a scoring pace above his, while over 30 have a rate under 25 points.

Provorov's fantasy value is a victim of his real hockey value. Beyond that, he's also not forcing the issue, with a low SOG total, high secondary assist percentage, and not helping lead to goals being scored while he's on the ice. So although he's doing much worse than expected, Provorov is, if anything, TOO HOT, and gets a rating of 8.75, as I wouldn't be shocked to see him finish 2021-22 with a scoring rate near his career low of 26.

What might the future hold? On the one hand, Provorov having twice scored goals at a rate of 0.18 per game by age 23 puts him on a par with elite fantasy d-men the likes of Mike Green, Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson, and Brian Leetch. But others who also did so include Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Justin Faulk. If we look more closely at the four who went on to have successful careers, all had broken out by age 25, which is how old Provorov is now, other than Gonchar, who definitely was cut from a different defensive cloth as Provorov. This all having been said, if you're still bullish on Provorov, now would be a great time to trade for him, as his value might never be lower again. But be prepared for the possibility that he simply might never live up to what were lofty expectations and instead become another Faulk or OEL.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is in a couple of weeks and has plenty of room for questions .To get yours to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, or (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.