Wild West: New Career-Highs?

Grant Campbell

2022-02-14

I hope everyone enjoyed Super Bowl Sunday and having to watch the four NHL games in the morning (on the West Coast at least).

For this article, I'm going to focus on some players in the West and look at who has played 300 NHL games or more and are pushing for career-highs in goals or points and see if they can sustain it or not.

Some players like Ivan Barbashev (45-15-19-34), Marcus Foligno (40-17-10-27),  Ryan Hartman (43-18-15-33) and Chandler Stephenson (45-12-26-38) have already established new career highs in points and we still have 34 to 40 games remaining

I'm not going to include players like Devon Toews, Andrew Mangiapane or Troy Terry who had played less than 300 games before this season and are breaking out this season. That is a whole other article on Breakouts.

Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary

Gaudreau co-leads the West in points for 2022 with 25 points on seven goals and 18 assists in 16 games and is a plus-17. He's had 56 SOG and has averaged 18:22 of ice time. He's only had four PP assists, so 21 of his points have been at even-strength. Gaudreau now has 19 goals and 39 assists in 45 games and is on pace for 106 points just before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. His career-highs of 36 goals and 99 points are both in danger. He had 27 PPP when he had his 99-point year (27.1% of his points) and has had 10 PPP of his 58 points (17%) so far this season. I say he does it if healthy.

Mikko Rantanen – Colorado

Rantanen shares the lead in points in 2022 with Gaudreau with 25 but has played 19 games to do so on 10 goals and 15 assists while being a plus-17. During 2022 he has averaged 21:21 per game and has 72 SOG. On the year, he has 21 goals and 24 assists in 43 games, which puts him on pace for 105 points. His career-highs are 31 goals and 87 points in 74 games during 2018-19. He's a bit of a band-aid boy so it will be a challenge for him to stay healthy and play that many games. If he does, he'll get there for sure.

Matthew Tkachuk – Calgary

Tkachuk has his game back and in 2022 has eight goals and 16 assists in 16 games and a plus-15 on 51 SOG and 17:49 of ice time per night. It has put him to 21 goals and 29 assists in 45 games and on pace for 91 points. His career-high is 34 goals and 77 points in 80 games during the 2018-19 season. One of my first articles for Dobber was after that year and I was convinced he could get to 100 points at some point. He might not get there, but he's made me less wrong at least. I think he gets to 35 goals and 50 assists this year.

Nazem Kadri – Colorado

Is Kadri going to slow down at some point this season? Until the Avalanche gets completely healthy he might not. In 2022 he has nine goals and 15 assists and is plus-14 in 19 games while averaging 20:15 per night. On the season he now has 20 goals and 42 assists in 43 games and is on pace for 118 points. He's already smashed through his previous career-high of 30 assists from 2013-14 and 61 points from 2016-17. Next up are the 32 goals he scored in 2016-17 as well. He might not get to 118 points but he will surely get to 90-95 points. He's become elite at the age of 31.

Joe Pavelski – Dallas

Like Kadri, I'm waiting for Pavelski to fall off a little and it just isn't happening. In 2022 he had seven goals and 14 assists in 17 games. He now has 19 goals and 29 assists in 46 games for an 86-point pace. His career-high is 40 goals from 2013-14 and 78 points from 2015-16. I still don't think he'll reach either of those but I think he's slotting in for an impressive 30-goals and 65-75 point season at 37-years of age.

Gabriel Landeskog – Colorado

Landeskog leads the Western Conference in 2022 with 13 goals in 16 games while adding eight assists on only 45 SOG for a tidy 28.89 shooting percentage. On the year, he has 22 goals and 26 assists in 38 games, which is 1.26 pts/game and if he plays 70 games puts him at about 88 points. His career-high is 34 goals and 41 assists in 73 games during the 2018-19 season. I think if he even hits 60 games, both of those will be in danger this year.

Mats Zuccarello – Minnesota

Zuccarello has six goals and 13 assists in his 13 games during 2022. Overall it puts him to 14 goals and 29 assists in 37 games. His career-high was from 2015-16 where he had 26 goals and 35 assists in 81 games with the NY Rangers. He might only play 65-70 games this year, but if healthy for the remainder of the schedule he should get 60-65 points and get over the 61 points he has had. The 26 goals will be the more difficult of the two, as he will need to maintain his 17.1 shooting percentage and his 2.2 shots per game.

Roman Josi – Nashville

Josi has had some very good seasons in the NHL with Nashville with the best being in 2019-20 when he had 16 goals and 49 assists in 69 games. This season he has 13 goals and 34 assists in his first 46 games and is on pace for about 80 points. He's only played over 80 games once in the past six seasons so I'd say that 75 games might be a comfortable number this season. Even at that amount of games, he would only need to get four goals and 15 assists in the next 29 games to set his career-high in goals and points.

Kyle Connor – Winnipeg

Connor has eight goals and 10 assists in 15 games during 2022 and on the season has 26 goals and 24 assists in 45 games which puts him on pace for about 46 goals and 44 assists over 82 games. His career-highs are 38 goals and 35 assists in 71 games from 2019-20. He's averaging 4.5 shots per game this season and is shooting 12.7 percent compared to his three-year average of 3.5/g and 14.8 percent. I think he'll set new highs this year.

Clayton Keller – Arizona

In his rookie season in 2017-18, Keller put up 23 goals and 42 assists in 82 games and hadn't put up more than 47 points in the three years after. This year he has a shot to set some new highs with 18 goals and 23 assists in 48 games. I don't think there is any doubt he will set his career-high in goals as he only needs six more in 34 games, but he will need 25 points in 34 games and he has faded a few times in the second half. I don't think he quite gets there for 65 points but close.

Filip Forsberg – Nashville

In his 8th NHL season, it's hard to believe that Forsberg's career-highs are 33 goals and 64 points from 2015-16. He's battled injuries over the past five seasons, including this one and hasn't played more than 67 games in a season during that stretch. This season he has 24 goals and 16 assists in 35 games, which puts him on pace for 69 games and 47 goals and 31 assists. I just don't think he can stay healthy for the remaining 34 games and conservatively think he will play 25-30 of those with 15 goals and 10 assists, to give him about 60 games played and 39 goals and 26 assists. I think he will break his career-highs.

Alex Debrincat – Chicago

When DeBrincat went from 41 goals in 2018-19 to 18 in 2019-20 I wisely predicted that he wouldn't score 40 goals again because he wouldn't be able to sustain an 18.6 shooting percentage and would more than likely come down to about 12 to 13. The past two seasons saw him get 32 goals in 52 games last year and shoot 20.6 percent, while this season has him at 27 goals in 48 games and 18.5 percent. While technically I have been correct, I am about to be so wrong come the second half of this season. He's on pace for 46 goals this year and I don't have any doubts this time around that he will at least get to 40.

Timo Meier – San Jose

Meier is another player that I keep waiting to slow down, but just refuses to. In 2022 he has eight goals and eight assists in 14 games and on the year has 21 goals and 26 assists in 41 games for a pace of 77 games and 39 goals and 49 assists. His career-high is 30 goals and 36 assists in 78 games from 2018-19. He would need to slump to nine goals and 10 assists over his remaining 36 games to not set new career-highs in both goals and points. He might slow a little but not that much and I think he will come in around 35 goals and 75 points in 77 games.

Kevin Fiala – Minnesota

Fiala has had notoriously slow first halves of seasons in his first five years. His career-high is 23 goals and 31 assists in 64 games with Minnesota in 2019-20. In 2022 he has had eight goals and eight assists in 13 games and on the season is now up to 14 goals and 22 assists in 43 games, which is one of the best first halves in his career. He is on pace for 27 goals and 42 assists in 82 games. If healthy he has a chance to even get to 70-75 points this year.

Andre Burakovsky – Colorado

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His career-highs are only 20 goals and 25 assists and he is in his eighth NHL season. This year he has 14 goals and 22 assists in 44 games and is on pace for 25 goals and 40 assists in 80 games. He has maintained 0.78 to 0.83 points per game while in Colorado over three seasons, so there is little reason he won't maintain his current pace other than injury.

Phillip Danault – Los Angeles

Danault has a career-high of 13 goals and 53 points while with Montreal in 2018-19. In Los Angeles this season he has 2.3 shots/game well above his previous high of 1.8. With an elevated shooting percentage of 11.4 over his career average of 9.0 he has 12 goals and 13 assists after 45 games and will undoubtedly set a career mark in that department as he is on pace for 21 goals. He is on pace for 44 points, so probably not in reach of 54. He would need 29 points in his last 35 games.

Noah Hanifin – Calgary

Hanifin has two goals and nine assists in his 16 games in 2022, which overall gives him five goals and 18 assists in 44 games. His career-high is 10 goals with Carolina in 2017-18 and 33 points in 2018-19 with Calgary. He is on pace for nine goals and 33 assists in 81 games this year. He has seen time on the PP this season at 34.9 percent of the time and has eight PP assists.  He should get 35-40 points by the end of the season.

Jared McCann – Seattle

McCann has earned first-line minutes and first-unit power-play time in Seattle so it is not surprising to most that we would see him on this list. His career-high is 19 goals and 35 points that he split between Florida and Pittsburgh in 2018-19 over 78 games. This season he has 19 goals already and 11 assists in 43 games and is a sure thing to set new highs. He is on pace for 35 goals and 20 assists over 80 games. I think he'll settle in for 30-35 goals and 50-55 points no problem if healthy.

Brandon Saad – St. Louis

Saad is quietly putting together a career year in St. Louis with 15 goals and 11 assists in 42 games, which puts him on pace for 28 goals and 21 assists. His career-highs are 31 goals in 2015-16 with Columbus and 53 points in 2015-16 and 2016-17 in Columbus as well. He has three goals and eight assists in 14 games since the new year and he has been remarkably consistent over the past 10 seasons with only one season not between 0.55 and 0.68 pts/game.

Adrian Kempe – Los Angeles

After 312 NHL games, his career-high was 16 goals and 37 points in 2017-18. This season he has shattered through his goal high with 19 goals and nine assists in his first 44 games. He is on pace for 34 goals this season and 16 assists in 79 games. His shot rate has increased from an average of 1.9 to 2.9 per game and his shooting percentage is 15 percent which is above his career average of 11. He more than likely won't get to 34 goals but if he keeps his shot rate consistent and shoots even 10-11 percent the rest of the way he could end up with 27 to 30.

Pavel Buchnevich – St. Louis

Buchnevich has 15 goals and 23 assists in his first 40 games with the Blues. His career-high in his five seasons with the Rangers was 21 goals and 48 points. He is on pace for 29 goals and 44 assists in 77 games. His shot rate is 2.9/game in St. Louis and it had never been more than 2.2 in New York. He has 13 points on the power play and is playing over 18 minutes per night. He can certainly get 25-30 goals and 65-70 points this year.

Valeri Nichushkin – Colorado

If Nichushkin can play 55 games this season he will set new highs in goals and points. Currently, he has 13 goals and 12 assists in 30 games but has missed 16 games this year. His career-highs are 14 goals and 34 points in his rookie season with Dallas in 2013-14. If healthy the rest of the way he is on pace to play 66 games and put up 29 goals and 27 assists. Both these numbers seem unlikely, but he is playing 18 minutes per game, well above his career average of 14:13 and his shot rate is 2.9/game compared to his average of 1.7. If he can get 20-25 goals and 20-25 assists this year, it's a very good year for him.

Shea Theodore – Vegas

Theodore has eight goals and 24 assists in 44 games which puts him on pace for 14 goals and 42 assists in 78 games above his career-high of 13 goals and 33 assists in 71 games with Vegas in 2019-20. If healthy, I think Theodore gets 55-60 points with little problem.

Zach Hyman – Edmonton

Hyman hasn't had the year that I'm sure a few Oiler fans had hoped for. Having said that he is still in line to perhaps have the most productive year of his seven years in the NHL. He has 14 goals and 13 assists in 39 games which puts him on pace for 27 goals and 25 assists in 76 games. His prior highs were 21 goals and 20 assists in 71 games with Toronto in 2018-19.

Matt Duchene – Nashville

Duchene has 23 goals and 20 assists in 44 games after posting only six goals and seven assists in 34 games last season. He is on pace for 41 goals and 35 assists in 78 games. His previous highs are 31 goals and 39 assists in 73 games split between Ottawa and Columbus in 2018-19. His shot rate is at 2.9/game above his career average of 2.4, while his shooting percentage of 17.8 is much higher than his average of 12.8. He might not get to 40 goals but should see 35 and 65-70 points with a chance to exceed his high.

Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis

 I almost didn't include Tarasenko here, because I assumed he had a 90 plus point season before, but in fact, his career-high is 40 goals in 2015-16 and 75 points in 2016-17. This season he has 16 goals and 25 assists in 42 games after only playing 34 games combined in the prior two years. He is on pace for 30 goals and 47 assists in 79 games. Because he has missed so many games before this season, I'm going to assume there is a bit of a fade down the stretch this year and conservatively I'm going to say that he could get 25-30 goals and 40-45 assists, coming just short of his previous high.

J.T. Miller – Vancouver

Miller has 17 goals and 31 assists in 47 games this season and is on pace for 29 goals and 53 assists in 80 games exceeding his totals from 2019-20 where he had 27 goals and 45 assists in 69 games. He's the subject of trade rumors in Vancouver as his contract expires at the end of next season, but I don't think the Canucks do anything until the off-season. I think he settles into a range of 25-30 goals and 45-50 assists.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Winnipeg

Dubois has 20 goals and 15 assists in 44 games this year and is on pace for 37 goals and 28 assists in 82 games. His prior highs are 27 goals and 34 assists in 82 games in 2018-19 with Columbus. His shot rate has ballooned to 2.8/game this season from an average of 2.2 and his 16.0 shooting percentage is a little high compared to his 13.5 average. I think he will settle closer to his average over the balance of the year and end up with 30-35 goals.

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Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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