Ramblings: Giroux’s Future; Norris, Toews, Bergeron, and Lehner Updates; Eichel and Theodore – February 16
Michael Clifford
2022-02-17
The big news from Wednesday was that Claude Giroux announced he is going to discuss his future with Philadelphia Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher. The 34-year-old center is a free agent after the season and the Flyers are not making the playoffs. This is going to be a talk about trade vs. finish the season vs. extension. I am not Claude Giroux, nor do I know him well, so it's tough to say what is going to happen here.
It should be said that he still has a lot left in the tank, at least at this moment – Evolving Hockey has him with offensive and defensive impacts near or over a standard deviation above average this year. He is averaging a four-year high in goals per game which help balances out the drop in assists because of the problems this team has had. He can play multiple forward positions and that is something coaches will always covet.
Whatever happens here, we should talk a minute to appreciate one of the better forwards of the cap era. He sits with 895 career points and that makes it seem likely he'll crack 1000 if he plays a few more years. He was always a huge part of that Philadelphia roster whether it was during a Cup run or when the team was in the lottery. In the fantasy realm, he had a 93-point season back in 2011-12, maxed with 102 points in 2017-18, and passed 80 points on a couple of other occasions. He only cracked the 30-goal mark once – he could get there this year with a decent hot streak perhaps – but he once had a season with 25 goals, 73 points, 110 hits, over three shots per game, and over 1000 face-off wins. The number of centers who can do all that is not very long.
If he does get traded, I would like to see him go to Colorado. They have a great roster but adding that one extra piece helps give them a much better third line, as well as some injury insurance. I am not an Avalanche fan but they are a lot of fun to watch and it'd be great to see them make a deep run. It isn't as if they don't have all the pieces to make it work, even if they are short on draft picks in 2022.
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An update on Josh Norris:
It was a brutal blow for the players and team when both Norris and Drake Batherson were injured so close together in time. This is a very fun team to watch – in a different way from Colorado, but still fun – and they don't have the depth to lose two-thirds of their top line. His 82-game pace on the season is for 40 goals but that's also with a shooting percentage near 20%. I don't have any doubt he can sustain a high percentage but 18-19% may be a bit much.
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Jonathan Toews and his concussion update:
He missed all of last season due to his immune system issue and now this. He has 19 points in 43 games this season as the Blackhawks roster just fell apart from Day 1.
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Patrice Bergeron was working on the power play for Boston:
The team also said he avoided a concussion, and a power-play practice is perhaps the final parameter before Patrice's re-appearance. Brad Marchand is also appealing his suspension so the Bruins may not be in too bad of shape as it looked a week ago.
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Just a quick update on Robin Lehner:
If it's nothing too serious, it likely changes who they look for in the goaltender market.
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Jack Eichel made his return tonight for Vegas and I thought it was very much worth diving on him, Vegas, and what we might be able to expect. This is the return of a potential top-10 player both in real terms and in fantasy, let's take a dive.
He hasn't played this season and played 21 games in 2020-21. For that we have to go back to earlier seasons, which is a reminder of how long it's been since we've seen him in top form. The shortened 2021 season didn't provide much, the Sabres missed the postseason each of the last two seasons, and COVID ended the 2019-20 campaign about three weeks shy of two years ago. It has been that long since we've seen Eichel in anything close to his true top form.
As for some of his underlying stats, we can look at things like shot rate, shot assists, and zone entries/exits. From CJ Turtoro, Eichel was elite in the three years heading into him injured campaign:
The only real difference between this profile and Nikita Kucherov's is the latter landed about two more shots per 60 minutes. The rest was the same. That should give us an indication of not only what Eichel was capable of, but what his upside could look like if he was surrounded by elite talent. To wit: Chandler Stephenson managed 2.02 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons, a borderline first-line rate. He has often been skating in Vegas's top-6, at least for the last two years (his two best offensive seasons). From 2017-20, Eichel led the Sabres at 2.12. Stephenson is a very good player, but Eichel was only slightly more productive than him in their respective franchises. Max Pacioretty is top-10 in points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons. If Eichel can produce like that while skating over 20 minutes a night? He will be well over a point-per-game pace.
All that would be with a good, not great, power play. If that PP can be upper-echelon with Eichel in the lineup, we're looking at a guy who can push for 100 points in an 82 game season. Evolving Hockey has him with very high power-play impacts, which isn't surprising. If they're an elite top unit, Eichel really could take off.
This is all a lot of conjecture until they start actually playing games. Eichel had good line mates in Buffalo, like Sam Reinhart and Jeff Skinner, but the Sabres never had a blue line like the Golden Knights do. All three pairs can move the puck, and that's important to being able to generate offense regularly. A healthy Pacioretty and Stone is also among the best winger pairs in the league. If everything lines up right, Eichel will be in an extremely fortuitous position.
For now, he just needs to show he's healthy and can play his top-line minutes. He needs to develop some chemistry with Pacioretty and get to the postseason. I am really excited for this team to have a full camp and then a full year next year. Of course, that is all going to be previewed by a (hopeful) Cup fun. Enjoy the ride.
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To that end, it makes me wonder about Shea Theodore's new future. His 82-game pace over the last three seasons works out to 59 points. By no means is that poor production, but given how good the team is, and his offensive capabilities, it always feels like there could be more, right?
This is where the power play improvements could matter a lot. He has 10 PPPs in 44 games this year, which isn't what we want from a top-tier fantasy option. He paces out to about 20 PPPs every 82 games these last three seasons, which again is very good, but always feels like there could be more. There are 10 d-men with 15 PPPs already this year, and there could be as many as a half-dozen with 20+ by the end of the month, or ~50 games played. That is the level we want to see him as a fantasy asset, and if Eichel can't help in that regard, it's a wonder when it will come.
There will always be things missing from his fantasy profile. He will always be missing hits or PIMs, but if he can start pushing past 70 points every season for the next few years, it'll really soften the blow. There is a lot riding on Eichel's integration into Vegas, and just one of those things is Theodore reaching his true fantasy upside. We will get a nice glimpse into the future over these final 30-plus games.
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Winnipeg laid the boots to Minnesota 6-3 on Wednesday night, largely thanks to the top line and Mark Scheifele. The Jets' pivot had a hat trick in this game, adding an assist on a Paul Stastny empty netter. Blake Wheeler had four helpers and that gives him 10 points in his last five games. Cole Perfetti had a goal and an assist in this one as well.
Joel Eriksson Ek had a goal for Minnesota in the loss, and his 82-game pace is now over 30 goals. It has been a good year offensively for him, which is what this team needed.