Ramblings – Jarry Jitters, Fiala-Boldy Magic, Caufield a St. Louis Fav (Feb 21)

Dobber

2022-02-21

This injury to Brendan Smith looks pretty serious:

The result was Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce each seeing over 25:30 of ice time on Sunday against the Penguins.

Seth Jarvis saw a near season-low for ice time. His 9:22 was only above the 9:14 that he saw in the second game of the season. This despite posting an assist. On the heels of a game in which he played 10:25, coupled with the fact that the Canes are trying to catch the Panthers for tops in the Conference while staving off the Penguins for tops in the Division, and I worry that Rod Brind'Amour will keep a tighter leash on him while leaning on his veteran players. Carolina has 33 games left in the season, so we're getting close to the stretch run.

Also getting that treatment from this coach – Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who played alongside Jarvis. Although he scored for the second straight game, his ice time was just 9:19. The two of them need to find a way to put points on the board and play strong two-way games with minimal ice time. And if they do, then the ice time will return.

Since December 4, Antti Raanta is 4-2-0, 2.40 GAA, 0.919 SV%, +1.4650 GSAA and 71.4 QS%.

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Bryan Rust picked up two more points Sunday and that gives him 11 multi-point efforts in the 18 games since returning from a lower body injury in early January.

2022 hasn't been too kind to Tristan Jarry owners. Since the turn of the calendar he is 10-5-2 (that's good), 2.84 (not terrible), 0.908 SV% (ouch), -1.6780 GSAA (positive is good, negative not so much), and just 35.3 QS%. And the latter is the number that fantasy owners should care about. If he's only giving us a good outing once every three starts, then activating him is a risk that he does more harm than good. So it all depends on how many goalie categories your league tracks.

Coach Mike Sullivan is trying to find the right linemates for Evgeni Malkin, desperately trying to get something going that's as great as the Sidney Crosby line. He really wanted things to work out with Kasperi Kapanen, but finally had to pull the plug on that idea. It would have been nice to have Jeff Carter as the third-line center, but instead, Carter was put on the wing with Malkin and Danton Heinen.

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Since Martin St. Louis took over as coach, Cole Caufield has five points in five games. After the Tyler Toffoli trade, his ice time has really popped as well. Over the last three games he is hovering at around 19:30 per contest. He leads the team in points over those five games with the new coach.

Jeff Petry, by the way, is second with four points.

Rookie Michael Pezzetta has been in an uphill battle his entire pro career. Drafted low and not a very big points producer, he's had to scratch and claw his way to the NHL with his toughness and sandpaper. St. Louis got to see him for the first time, putting him in the lineup Sunday and was rewarded with four Hits, a shot and plus-1 despite just 9:19 of ice time. Pezzetta is third in the NHL in Hits per 60 minutes of ice time (minimum 15 games), with 21.3.

Is the Hamburgler back for a second surprise run? Haha! Well, okay, we're just one game in, but Andrew Hammond stopped 30 of 32 shots faced. Montreal has been dying for good goaltending and he gave it to them. It was his first start in four years. Hammond is 34 now.

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The most disappointing player for me this season has to be Anthony Beauvillier. Only 24 years old, coming off an amazing second half and strong playoff production – I honestly had visions of 60 points with an upside of 70. In the Fantasy Guide I projected 54, but in my head I really felt like 60 was gonna happen. In the Guide I had him as a sleeper for 62 and gave that a solid 15% comfort rating.

He's on pace for 35.

Only a trade or a new coach (and I guess a trade means a new coach) can salvage his upside. I just don't see it in this Barry Trotz system.

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In the last 21 games the Florida Panthers have scored 99 goals. That's just under five per game! Since December 30, the following Florida players (in 20 games) are in the Top 50 scorers: Jonathan Huberdeau (first in the NHL, with 37 points), Aleksander Barkov (27 points), Sam Reinhart (24), Aaron Ekblad (23), Anton Lundell (22), Anthony Duclair (19) and Mason Marchment (19).

Marchment picked up another assist, so he has 19 points in his last 14 games (27 in 25 on the season). The success of Marchment and the return to action of Noah Acciari have made Owen Tippett and Frank Vatrano healthy scratches.

Speaking of Marchment:

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And unlike Jarry owners who haven't enjoyed 2022 so far, Sergei Bobrovsky owners are absolutely loving it. Here are Sergei's stats this calendar year: 13-1-1, 2.53, 0.922, with +5.4320 GSAA and 66.7 QS%.

Jonas Johansson was Bobrovsky's backup, and that will always be the case. I honestly don't see a start out of him. He's just a benchwarmer so that Spencer Knight can find his game in the AHL.

And find his game, he has. Knight got roughed up in his first AHL outing back in December, but since then he has won five straight. He has allowed just nine goals in that span. He'll put together a great season there, rebuild that confidence. He should get in a couple of cups of coffee this season to give Bobrovsky some rest (because I suspect Johansson won't be used, barring injury). Next year my guess is that there will be more of the same – Knight getting time in the minors, with a bunch of recalls for NHL starts. He'll be 21 next year and the Panthers won't rush him. Not after seeing the Carter Hart fiasco, and not with Bobrovsky back to Vezina caliber.

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Columbus is in a bit of a bind with their top goalie Elvis Merzlikins now sidelined. Backup Joonas Korpisalo was already sidelined. Ditto for their No.3 guy, hotshot prospect Daniil Tarasov. So they turned to J-F Berube who got into his first game in four years. Undrafted goalie Jet Greaves signed a three-year ELC in time to be the backup. Berube got the win.

Patrik Laine has been on a ridiculous tear with 18 points in his last nine games. He had 15 in 21 games before that. In fact, going back the year prior he had 39 points in 67 games as a Blue Jacket. The chemistry with Boone Jenner and Jakub Voracek is really starting to hum, though the trio have been a bit of a disaster in terms of defense.

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His second game back in the lineup and Casey Mittelstadt picked up an assist in 17:54 of ice time. He played with Peyton Krebs and Kyle Okposo. The next 33 games will be key for Mittelstadt in terms of establishing himself in the pecking order. Staying healthy is the first job. After that, it's to put up points. Last season he finished with 17 in his last 22 contests. Something close to that to end 2021-22 would obviously be ideal. He and Dylan Cozens each want to be that No.2 guy. And each of them have the upside to be a No.1 center and knock Tage Thompson down to 1B or the the second line in two or three years.

With Rasmus Dahlin sidelined, Henrik Jokiharju finally saw some PP time. He didn't make anything happen, albeit they only had the one power play.

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Tyler Seguin, who has 14 points in his last 14 games (though was shut out on Sunday), was stuck playing on a line with Michael Raffl and Luke Glendening. That's not a good way to keep that hot run going.

With another three points on Sunday, Arizona's Nick Schmaltz has 15 in his last 14 games. I think there might be something to this. He's been dogged by injuries over the years and he needs to stay healthy, but this feels like the 25-year-old is finally finding his footing. It doesn't hurt that he seems to be tied at the hip with Clayton Keller.

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Kevin Fiala and Matt Boldy continue to click. Give them a combined five more points on Sunday. Their lucky pivot is journeyman Frederick Gaudreau, who picked up an assist and has nine points in his last 10 games.

Interesting fact: this is Kaapo Kahkonen's third NHL season and heading in he had played 29 career NHL games. He's still classified as a rookie. He now has 31 career NHL wins and that's the most ever by a Finnish rookie goaltender. And he has those wins over three seasons!

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Evan Bouchard owners aren't sitting as comfortable as they were a couple of weeks ago. Sunday he played just 12:27 and saw zilch on the power play. He was a minus-3. He has three points in six games under Jay Woodcroft. Tyson Barrie also has three points in six games, but his ice time and PP time is on the rise. It's a situation worth watching. It would appear this is a Hail Mary pass thrown by Barrie to save his career.

In 11 games as an Oiler, Evander Kane has nine points and is plus-6. His Hits/game is through the roof right now as well. I think his fantasy value is about as high right now as it has ever been in his career.

In those same 11 games – Zach Hyman has 12 points. The addition of Kane has caused a ripple effect in shuffling the lines, and Hyman has seriously benefited.

Since Kane joined the team:

Stuart Skinner: 2-0-0, 1.00, 0.953 and +1.8270 GSAA
Mikko Koskinen: 2-0-1, 2.87, 0.887 and -2.3670
Mike Smith: 3-3-0, 3.44, 0.891 and -3.3150

They're getting the wins, but other than Stuart the goaltending still sucks.

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Vegas goaltender Logan Thompson was the first star and picked up his first NHL win, stopping 35 of 36. With Robin Lehner rumored to be a bit of a risk to be out for a long time, I think Thompson makes for a solid pickup that could pay off. Lehner is back skating, but rumor has it that he has a torn labrum. If he's trying to play through that, well that doesn't seem like it would end well. Keep a close eye on this situation.

Jack Eichel with some sweet dangles and then his first goal with Vegas:

Vegas moved Chandler Stephenson to the wing because of Mark Stone being injured, so Stephenson maintained his first-line status. Eichel centered Stephenson and Max Pacioretty. Stephenson had two points in the game after going seven straight without a point and managing just four in his last 14.

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Rasmus Sandin was sent to the Marlies on Sunday. But that was just a paper move. The Leafs waived Ryan Dzingel and when he clears, he can be sent down and at that point Sandin can be "recalled". Sandin has come into his own as the season has worn on. He's now fourth on the team in Expected Goals-For (xGF) per 60. He's only 21 and I think in dynasty leagues he's a sneaky buy-low option. I don't expect big points next year, but in 2023-24 I say he breaks out.

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Washington's Joe Snively has seven points in nine games. He is 26 and I doubt he would have had a chance to get into a game were it not for COVID protocols. Instead, he gets into a game and picks up an assist. A month later, he gets into another game – another assist. So he's impressing the coach at this point, and is now getting longer looks. All thanks to COVID. Many examples of this across the league. But I love seeing a 5-9 late-bloomer get his shot and succeeding (knock on wood). Kudos to DobberProspects Associate Editor Pat Quinn for tooting Snively's horn for the last two seasons. He was steadfast in his belief that he could make waves if he ever got an NHL shot.

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Follow me on Twitter for details and the official 'launch' announcement of the new Goalie Post! Last week I gave a little preview snapshot of what it will look like and got lots of positive feedback. We are down to our last three fixes before launch, though two of them are classified as "difficult" so we'll see.

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
JET GREAVES CBJ

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

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