Looking Ahead: New Role for Boqvist; Thompson and Skinner; Provorov, and More
Andrew Santillo
2022-02-25
Is there anything better than the "Game Will Start Shortly" screen on NHL.tv? It's the calm before the storm and with most leagues having around six or seven weeks remaining in the season we're right in the thick of things. Let's do what we do and try to swing a matchup in your direction.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Adam Boqvist, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (Available in 93% of ESPN leagues, 50% Fantrax, 94% Yahoo) – Jackets defensemen Zach Werenski missed Thursday's game vs Florida and will also miss Friday's game vs Carolina. For Boqvist that means playing a larger role on a very high event club.
This isn't the first time Boqvist has played in Werenski's absence, in early January while Werenski missed time due to COVID, Boqvist played over 21 minutes a game which is well over his season average of 17 minutes. With the extra minutes comes top power play time, which is great for fantasy, but Boqvist this also adds shot blocking ability on a club that tends to give up their fair share of shots. So far this season the Jackets have the highest shot attempts by games played in the NHL at just over 35 shots a night.
Even if Werenski is only out of the lineup for a handful of games, I think adding Boqvist is a chance to grab some points for your blue line. He's been good offensively with 10 goals and nine assists on the season with a 22% shooting percentage, which is not only the highest percentage for Columbus defensemen, but for defensemen in the entire league. Great trade by you, Chicago.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Tage Thompson, C/LW/RW, Buffalo Sabres (Available in 67% of ESPN leagues, 34% Fantrax, 48% Yahoo) – Taking a look at the ownership numbers on different fantasy and DFS sites, it looks like the secret may be out on Buffalo's top line. Thompson is still available in a fair amount of leagues and I think if you have a roster spot open he makes a great addition to your club.
Thompson's ownership really took off following his hat trick vs Colorado but even outside of that there's been a lot to like about his game. He has ten points in his last ten games which is great but what also makes him valuable is his current line combination with wingers Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner. Not only are all three skaters fully correlated on the power play but as of recently this is a line that has been shooting the lights out. In the last 15 days Tuch leads all the NHL with 31 shots on goal, and Skinner is sixth in the league with 22 shots on goal. Even if Thompson isn't necessarily the trigger man on this line, the fact that this line is putting pucks on net only adds to his value offensively. Not to mention in most leagues Thompson being wing and center eligible which makes it easy to float him around your roster as you need to.
Buffalo has dropped four in a row and has given up the most shots against in the month of February, but we care about this from a fantasy standpoint and for right now it doesn't look like Buffalo has any plans to break Thompson's line up. If he's available this might be a great way to get a player with good offensive upside.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Nicklas Backstrom, C, Washington Capitals (Owned in 88% of ESPN leagues, 82% of Fantrax, 76% Yahoo) – Backstrom might just be an odd man out against, the schedule? Possibly your roster? It sounds crazy but looking at his numbers and production I think we need to dive in a bit here.
When I think of Backstrom his excellent passing ability on both five on five and on the man advantage come to mind but this season that's taken a small step back. The power play is what makes him and the Caps so dangerous which has struggled so far this season. Last season the Capitals ranked 3rd in power play percentage, this season that has fallen all the way down to 27th. Backstrom did miss time this season and has only played in twenty games so far, but the numbers haven't been great with one point in his last five games and the lowest points per 60 minutes of his career at 2.4.
Backstrom is in maybe the most difficult spot fantasy wise. It's having a player who you know is struggling but you can't take them out of your line up because you know that player has the potential to go off. At the end of the day Backstrom still skates on an even strength line with Alex Ovechkin and (at least for this season) whoever is healthy that night on right wing. If you're a Backstrom owner and are in between him and another skater for a starting spot I would dive into the line matching and trends for each to try and get the optimal start. It's harder than blindly adding him to your roster I know but could be worth it in the long term.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Ivan Provorov, D, Philadelphia Flyers (Owned in 92% of ESPN leagues, 76% of Fantrax, 62% Yahoo) – It's time to talk about the Anchor for this week, and yes, that usually means pointing out the negatives. We're going to get there with Provorov, but I think we need to spread some positivity. Positives, positives..I got it! Somehow, and I don't know how, Philly lost 13 games in a row earlier this season and are now on a six-game skid, yet amazingly are not last place in their own division. It reads just as crazy as it did typing that out.
Provorov is higher owned on all three major fantasy platforms, and I see it because of the amount of ice time that he plays. His average time on ice for the season is around 25:13 which puts him at 13th in the NHL but over the past week that number has gone up to 26:37. Only Thomas Chabot of the Senators averages more. The issue isn't the ice time, it's what he does with it and that hasn't exactly been the production that matches his ownership. He has one point in his last seven games, four over his past ten.
The defensive pool of players seems harder to navigate this season than in ones prior, so I get it if you don't really have any other viable options. Provorov does throw his weight around and blocks shots with 102 blocks on the season, but if there are defensive players on your waiver with a higher offensive ceiling it may be worth looking into.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from February25th to March 9th
Vegas – Vegas has a busy schedule coming up which is great for a higher owned club in fantasy and DFS. They'll also have four of their next six games on home ice.
Minnesota – The Wild have a very heavy schedule upcoming with six games in eight days. They'll have a mix of home and road games over that span, and although the Wild have not been great on the road, I don't see road games vs Philadelphia or Buffalo next week being much to worry about for this club.
Edmonton – Lots to like along with a healthy schedule upcoming for Edmonton. The Oilers offense has started to wake back up, so far this month they are third in shots for, second in expected goals for, and first in high danger chances for. If their offense continues to play like they have this could be a great stretch for a club trying to climb back into the playoff picture.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Nashville – Let's see, the Preds have a small west coast trip upcoming with games vs Seattle and San Jose and that's about all to speak on for now. Light schedule on the west coast gets the Preds on the Leave Em side of things for this stretch.
Seattle – Is it weird to think that the Kraken should blow it up and rebuild already? A light schedule upcoming with two tough back-to-back games on the road vs Washington and Carolina have Seattle as a stay away.
Pittsburgh – Next week the Pens will see Tampa Bay and Carolina on the road back-to-back, then a break before facing off against another 30 win club in Florida. Not that the Pens can't handle a tough schedule but it's the lack of games in between their upcoming contests that put them as a Leave Em.
Friday, February 25th to Thursday, March 3rd, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Vegas 4.24 – Away ARI – Home COL SJS BOS |
Carolina 4.20 – Away DET WSH – Home CBJ EDM |
NY Islanders 3.91 – Away LAK ANA COL – Home VAN |
Edmonton 3.85 – Away FLA CAR PHI CHI |
Boston 3.85 – Away SJS LAK ANA VGK |
Steer Clear |
Detroit 1.89 – Home TOR CAR |
Seattle 2.04 – Away SJS – Home NSH |
Nashville 2.04 – Away SEA – Home TBL |
Florida 2.26 – Home EDM OTT |
Dallas 2.31 – Home BUF LAK |
Saturday, February 26th to Friday, March 4th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers – Away PIT – Home VAN STL NJD |
Tampa Bay 4.16 – Away NSH – Home OTT PIT DET |
Vegas 4.10 – Away ANA – Home COL SJS BOS |
Minnesota 4.09 – Away CGY PHI BUF – Home CGY |
Carolina 4.04 – Away DET WSH – Home EDM PIT |
Steer Clear |
Arizona 1.94 – Home WPG COL |
St.Louis 2 – Away CHI NYR |
Seattle 2.04 – Away SJS – Home NSH |
Nashville 2.04 – Away SEA – Home TBL |
Chicago 2.10 – Home STL EDM |
Sunday, February 27th to Saturday, March 5th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.15 – Away CAR PHI CHI – Home MTL |
Columbus 4.15 – Home PIT NJD LAK BOS |
Carolina 4.04 – Away DET WSH – Home EDM PIT |
NY Islanders 4.01 – Away ANA COL – Home VAN STL |
Boston 3.80 – Away LAK ANA VGK CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Nashville 2.14 – Away SEA SJS |
Florida 2.31 – Home OTT DET |
Anaheim 2.68 – Home NYI BOS VGK |
Detroit 2.70 – Away TBL FLA – Home CAR |
Buffalo 2.75 – Away DAL TOR – Home MIN |
Monday, February 28th to Sunday, March 6th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.40 – Away CHI – Home OTT PIT DET |
Vegas 4.36 – Away ANA – Home SJS BOS OTT |
Minnesota 4.18 – Away PHI BUF – Home CGY DAL |
Carolina 4.15 – Away DET WSH – Home PIT SEA |
New Jersey 4.10 – Away CBJ NYR – Home VAN STL |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh 1.71 – Away TBL CAR |
Nashville 2.14 – Away SEA SJS |
Arizona 2.15 – Home COL OTT |
Florida 2.31 – OTT DET |
Detroit 2.70 – Away TBL FLA – CAR |
Tuesday, March 1st to Monday March 7th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.40 – Away CHI – Home OTT PIT DET |
Vegas 4.36 – Away ANA – Home SJS BOS OTT |
Edmonton 4.25 – Away PHI CHI CGY – Home MTL |
Minnesota 4.18 – Away PHI BUF – Home CGY DAL |
Columbus 4.15 – Home NJD LAK BOS TOR |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.66 – Away NYI TOR |
Pittsburgh 1.71 – Away TBL CAR |
Washington 2.05 – Home CAR SEA |
Nashville 2.14 – SEA SJS |
Arizona 2.15 – Home COL OTT |
Wednesday, March 2nd to Tuesday, March 8th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Toronto 4.56 – Away CBJ – Home BUF VAN SEA |
Florida 4.35 – Away BUF PIT – Home OTT DET |
Calgary 4.22 – Away COL – Home MTL EDM WSH |
Vegas 4.20 – Away ANA PHI – Home BOS OTT |
Chicago 4.20 – Away PHI – Home EDM TBL ANA |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.66 – Away NYI TOR |
Montreal 1.85 – Away CGY EDM |
San Jose 1.94 – Away ANA – Home NSH |
Pittsburgh 2.71 – Away TBL CAR – Home FLA |
New Jersey 2.90 – Away NYR – Home STL COL |
Thursday, March 3rd to Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.35 – Away BUF PIT – Home OTT DET |
Edmonton 4.31 – Away CHI CGY – Home MTL WSH |
Calgary 4.22 – Away COL – Home MTL EDM WSH |
Vegas 4.20 – Away ANA PHI – Home BOS OTT |
Chicago 4.20 – Away PHI – Home EDM TBL ANA |
Steer Clear |
San Jose 1.94 – Away ANA – Home NSH |
Nashville 2.09 – Away SJS – Home DAL |
Dallas 2.61 – Away WPG MIN NSH |
Pittsburgh 2.71 – Away TBL CAR |
Seattle 2.71 – WSH CAR TOR |