Saturday’s Game Picks: Believe in the Leafs

Flip Livingstone

2022-02-26

Don't look now, but the NHL playoffs are only about 60 days away. With that comes the stretch run of the schedule in which teams jockey for postseason positioning and legitimate contenders begin to separate themselves from peripheral pretenders. In more plain terms: buckle up for a two-month ride of what is sure to feature some entertaining, playoff-like hockey on a nightly basis.

A tasty 10-game board awaits our betting delight on our favourite day of the week, which includes three matinee matchups. To note, two of those games drop the puck at 12:30 p.m. EST, so make sure you set your lineups and get your bets in early.

Let's get this paper. Good luck and enjoy the games.

FLIP LIVINGSTONE

2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 6-4
Silver: 2-8
Bronze: 6-4
Side bets: 15-14

Total Saturday Record: 29-30-0

Gold Pick
Elias Lindholm (Anytime assist) +110

If you haven't noticed, the Calgary Flames are very much for real. I've mentioned it in this piece before but since I last posted picks for Dobber Hockey just over two weeks ago, Calgary reeled off an impressive 10-game win streak before getting pumped at the hands of the resurgent Vancouver Canucks to the tune of a 7-1 smack show Thursday night. Streak busted, but Calgary is still a force to be reckoned with.

The Flames return home where they have points in 18 of 22 games this season, which includes a current 10-game home win streak. A big part of the torrent pace that's seen Calgary ascend the Pacific Division standings? The Flames' top-six forward group which is anchored by a beastly top line featuring a revitalized Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and a red-hot Elias Lindholm.

Aside from the crooked loss to the Canucks in which the 27-year-old Swede was held off the scoresheet, Lindholm has been simply sensational of late, posting nine goals and seven assists for 16 points over his previous 10 games. The addition of Tyler Toffoli from the Montreal Canadiens has already paid off in spades for the Flames, as this balanced offense is really starting to click in a major way with talented options on three forward lines. Following the ugly loss last time out and a return home for a big Saturday matchup against a really good Minnesota club, I expect a big bounce-back game from Calgary's big guns.

You can also expect the Flames to pepper this Wild group with an early offensive barrage, one in which you can count on Lindholm to play a major role in. Elias Lindholm anytime assist, my Gold Pick of the day.

Silver Pick
Boston Bruins @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Bruins (ML) -175

Here is one of the classic cases where I am hammering a heavy favorite in a great spot at not-so-great odds.

As much as it really pains me to say it, the Boston Bruins smell blood in the water (no, not the Sharks, the Bruins), and with the Toronto Maple Leafs struggling of late, Boston has narrowed the gap in the Atlantic Division to just six points and closing. That makes for a very hungry Bruins' lineup that was just bolstered by the returns of Patrice Bergeron from injury and Brad Marchand from another bone-headed suspension. Regardless, those additions are huge for a team currently in the midst of a big postseason push.

Not only is Boston on a three-game win streak overall, the Bruins have completely dominated the Sharks over their recent meetings. Marchand and Co. have won eight straight games against San Jose, including their last three visits to the Shark Tank. Speaking of which, San Jose has only one win at home in their last five games and straight up, the only reason the Sharks don't sit in dead last in the Pacific Division is thanks to the downright awful Seattle Kraken. Short story long: The Sharks are just a really bad team right now.

I am not going to overthink this one in a great spot for the Bruins to continue to close the gap on their division rival. Bruins get the two points for my Silver Pick of the day.

Bronze Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings – Pick: Maple Leafs (PL -1.5) +115

I just touched on the precarious situation the Toronto Maple Leafs once again find themselves in with two really nasty Floridian teams on top of them in the standings and the Boston Bruins bearing down on them from behind. Just when fans in the 6ix were ready to start calling for head coach Sheldon Keefe's and general manager Kyle Dubas' heads (again), the Leafs pulled out one of their tidier defensive showings in a big 3-1 win against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night, snapping a three-game slide.

If Toronto can continue to play that 200-foot game and clamp down on opposing offenses, they are going to be a really hard to play against on a nightly basis. But that is a really big if. Either way, the Leafs looked a lot better and you cannot help but feel that with a very beatable Detroit Red Wings group on tap tonight, Keefe's crew will be looking to completely shed the previous week of losing and kick-start a nice win streak against a team they have dominated of late.

The Buds have wins in five in row against the Wings and five of their last six when facing Detroit at Little Caesars Arena. There won't be any value with the Leafs on the moneyline in this spot, so make sure you're wagering on the puckline to get the most out of this opportune situation for a Toronto squad needing to string wins together in a very big way. Maple Leafs -1.5 on the puckline for my Bronze Pick.

Side Bets

New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Under

Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators (Over/Under 6) – Pick: Over

New York Islanders @ L.A. Kings (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Under

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Gold Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: Canadiens

It felt so good to write this line. I did not think I'd get to make a biased pick this season, and yet, here it is. You all have to go through the next three paragraphs of pure, subjective fandom. Actually, I feel like my editor wouldn't be very pleased if I actually gave betting advice based on favoritism, so here are some solid arguments.

The whole league knows by now that the Canadiens are on a great streak, having won four games in a row. Thus, this pick mostly depends on whether or not you believe that they are able to keep this up for at least another game. Those four victories are the result of more than just luck, as shown by dominant performances against Buffalo and Toronto. It's looking like some pieces that Montreal expected to be impactful since day one but haven't are finally settling into place. Obviously, the first line of Josh Anderson, Nick Suzuki and especially Cole Caufield has been phenomenal (in case twitter hasn't reminded you enough). Jeff Petry finally decided to care again. They are getting support from some depth pieces such as Rem Pitlick and Artturi Lehkonen.

Meanwhile, Ottawa still has to suit up without their second and third best forwards, Josh Norris and point-per-game Drake Batherson. Thus, to no one's surprise, their offensive output has been wildly inconsistent in the last few weeks. They can only rely on a handful of guys to make plays. Granted, they've been blessed by some incredible performances by Anton Forsberg in net, but there's no guarantee he can perform like that until the end of the season.

Bottom line, this is a matchup facing an injury riddled inconsistent team to a red-hot, confident and underestimated squad, and I know how those matchups usually go.

Silver Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings – Pick: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results". I'll take "most overused quotes on the internet" for 500, Alex. I am very tempted to write a sequel to my Auston Matthews love letter from last week. I'll save you the redundancy and will invite you to re-read that paragraph as mostly everything still stands. He's still amazing. He's still at the top of my Hart rankings (and so is Igor Shesterkin).

The biggest difference between this game and the one from last Saturday is obviously the matchup. Facing the Blues and facing the Red Wings isn't the same kind of challenge. Furthermore, Toronto have lost three games in a row this week. They did manage to get the win against Minnesota on Thursday, but they'll look to add on to that win with a dominant performance against a lowly-ranked team tonight. Great teams do not go through big slumps in the regular season. Toronto has been a consistently great regular season team for years now, and this season they may boast their strongest roster, maybe, ever?

Bronze Pick
Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights (Over/under 5.5) – Pick: Over

It may seem like there would be some more obvious picks this week. The last time these two teams faced each other, which was just over a week ago, Colorado won 2-0. As a matter of fact, the Avs seldom end their games with a total of six or more goals. While they sometimes do have some offensive showdowns, their defense often comes up strong to win games for them as well. That being said, this game is their second one in as many days. I do believe the fatigue will take over their blue-liners and that goals will go in more easily. In fact, the same goes for the Golden Knights.

Additionally, the Avs rank second in the league for goals for and 14th for goals against, whereas Vegas ranks 12th and 16th in those two categories respectively. Since they're both expected to play their backup goaltenders, I do expect them to put on a more electric show than what we saw last Wednesday and light it up on more than a few occasions.

Side Bets

Boston Bruins @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Sharks

New York Islanders @ Los Angeles Kings (Over/under 5.5) – Pick: Under

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Predators

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.



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