Ramblings: Updates on Mantha and Ehlers; Giroux’s Future Value; Lundell – March 1
Michael Clifford
2022-03-01
We have rounded into March and that means the push towards the end of the regular season has begun in earnest. We have something like 60 days left in the regular season and teams have anywhere from 27-33 games left to play. There will be some teams – Islanders, Wild, Lightning Flames – that are very busy over the next two months and others – Seattle, Anaheim, Pittsburgh – that will not. Be sure to keep checking columns like 'Looking Ahead' to see which teams and players could be the most beneficial in the upcoming days.
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An update on Joel Edmundson:
The Montreal blue liner hasn't played this year and will be travelling with the team.
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Some big news from the Capitals:
Anthony Mantha has played just 10 games this year and none since early November due to the shoulder injury. It is a reminder that Washington has played a significant chunk of this season without Mantha-Backstrom-Oshie, which is effectively their entire second line and 60% of the top power-play unit. They got Backstrom in the lineup a month ago, Oshie last week, and now Mantha appears on the road back. That is a big boost for any team heading into the home stretch.
There wasn't any official timeline given for Mantha. Being cleared from contact after months off due to shoulder surgery doesn't mean an imminent return. I do hope it means that we see him before the regular season is out, though.
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In a parallel situation, Jakub Vrana over in Detroit was getting some work in on the third line in practice. He may not be quite ready to return just yet, but it does seem much sooner rather than later.
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We also have a new update on Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers:
He suffered a sprained knee roughly six weeks ago and hasn't been seen on the ice since. This is very good news, though there's still clearly a way for him to go before he's set to return to the lineup. Those in good positions for fantasy playoffs might want to see if he can be stashed off the waiver wire (if he's been dropped).
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There was an article recently from Eric Stephens at The Athletic discussing the Anaheim Ducks and players that could be moved at the trade deadline. The usual suspects were untouchables, but one name stood out: Rickard Rakell. The reason for that is he is a UFA and does seem likely to be traded. It also pointed out that the price for Tyler Toffoli – likely a better player with a great contract – went for relatively cheap. Surely it wouldn't cost much to trade for him and his final four weeks of the season could be on a much better team than where he is now.
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Speaking of the trade deadline, I do think Claude Giroux has one of the more interesting outlooks. Allow me to explain.
Let's assume that Giroux is traded before the deadline. For my money, there are two very obvious landing spots for him, assuming he doesn't waive his NMC to go to the New York Rangers: Boston and Colorado. Where he does land could present very different fantasy values.
First, if he heads to Colorado, I have to think it's in a depth role. That team has arguably the best top-6 forward mix in the league, and both of the top two lines have been productive all season long. The third and fourth lines, however, have been very average or very bad. It may not seem like a big deal, but when looking at recent Cup winners like Washington, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay, they not only had a very good top-6, but a reliable and productive third line. Calgary seems to have gotten the memo by trading for Tyler Toffoli – a winger averaging 32 goals/82 games over the last three years – and putting him on their third trio. Having Giroux as a 3C would help lengthen the Colorado lineup and give them another dimension they'll need if they want to make a deep playoff run.
Not only would (should?) Giroux end up on the third line, but he may not end up on the top power-play unit either. Nazem Kadri has been enduring a career year and it seems unlikely they give Giroux his role should he get traded. Maybe he takes Gabriel Landeskog's, but that's kind of hard to fathom as well. It seems very plausible that Giroux gets traded from Philadelphia and lines up for third line and second PP unit duties. That doesn't seem like much of an upgrade fantasy-wise. Of course, maybe they move Kadri to the third line instead but that doesn't seem likely, given Kadri's play this year.
On the other side of the Conference ledger are the Boston Bruins. They desperately need a second-line centre if they want to make any kind of playoff run this year. Granted, once they're in the postseason, anything can happen, but it's clear that Erik Haula is not a solution to that role. He has been fine with Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak as his winger, but they're carrying him, and having your 2C carried by your wingers doesn't seem a recipe for significant playoff success. Conversely, if Giroux were to step into that role, it would really seem to complete Boston's top-6 mix. That would allow Haula to move down the lineup in a role more suited for his talents, and greatly help this team have some balanced scoring at 5-on-5.
Then there is the power play as well. It has been inconsistent for most of the year and outside the top line and Charlie McAvoy, there has been a rotation of fourth forwards. Be it Taylor Hall, or Charlie Coyle, or Craig Smith, or Jake DeBrusk, there have been players moving in and out of that unit all year. Well, that could be very good news for Giroux, who typically has great offensive impacts both at 5-on-5 and on the power play (from Evolving Hockey):
[Giroux]
Here is a case where Giroux could be traded to Boston, and up on a line with Hall and Pastrnak, and then join their top PP unit as the fourth forward. He would probably lose some ice time overall, seeing as he won't play 19-20 minutes as the 2C in Boston, but he could play 17-18 minutes, and that is more than enough for very good fantasy value in that role.
This presents a dilemma for Giroux fantasy owners at this moment. Of course, there are other destinations where he could land, but it's a matter of fitting cap space and there are only so many teams that have genuine Cup aspirations. He also controls whether or not he gets traded as he has a no-move clause. With all that said, he could see an uptick in fantasy value, or he could see it get decimated, depending on where he lands. It is up to the fantasy owner exactly how much risk they want to take on for the fantasy playoffs.
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The Calder Trophy race is heating up and there seems to be a handful of frontrunners but one player I don't see mentioned enough is Anton Lundell. I get it, Moritz Seider is on the top pair and playing extremely well for Detroit, while Michael Bunting could put up 60 points while Lucas Raymond could do the same. But then we have Anton Lundell, also on a 60-point/82-game pace, who has been skating on the third line in Florida most of the year. (Remember discussing earlier how teams with Cup hopes probably need an effective/productive third line? There is a reason we did not include Florida as a potential Giroux destination; Lundell and Sam Reinhart are there already.)
Over at Evolving Hockey, he has good offensive impacts and is not a drag defensively. That is important, considering he takes a fewer percentage of his faceoffs in the offensive zone than Sam Bennett and Aleksander Barkov. They have heaped significant defensive zone starts, and thus defensive responsibilities, onto a 20-year old rookie centre and he's not only survived, but thrived.
For now, one issue is not generating prime opportunities for himself; his individual expected goals among Florida forwards is outside their top-12. It isn't make-or-break for a rookie, and he has decent playmaking numbers which should only improve. But it is something we, as fantasy owners, should keep an eye on in the coming seasons. It is an offensive dimension we love our fantasy players to have.
All that aside, it has been a wonderful start to his career, both in real terms and in the fantasy game. I would not be the least bit surprised to see him take the 2C role over from Sam Bennett next season, as they're pretty much equals by TOI lately anyway. It would not shock me to see Lundell with a 2C/PP1 role in Florida next year.