Frozen Tool Forensics: Where Are They Now? Defense Edition

Chris Kane

2022-03-04

Today we look to continue the "Where Are They Now" mini-series. Last week we checked in on forwards, so this week we are going to turn our attention to defensemen. We had a significant number of high scoring D early on and I was particularly interested if those players had managed to keep up the pace.

As with last week our baseline for this is from right about Week 6. I have pulled a Big Board report, exported it and rearranged a few columns for easy presentation. For the purposes of our column today we are going to be focusing on points pace and points per game. For the individual player review I am using their Player Profile sections and specifically their Game Logs and their Player Calculator pages.

To get us started here were the top ten performers at the six-week mark.

NamePosAgeTeamGPGAPTS82GP PacePTS/ GP
CALE MAKARD23COL137815951.15
ADAM FOXD23NYR1841418821
VICTOR HEDMAND30T.B1731417821
TONY DEANGELOD26CAR1741216770.94
ROMAN JOSID31NSH1861117770.94
JOHN CARLSOND31WSH1931316690.84
SETH JONESD27CHI1821315680.83
AARON EKBLADD25FLA1851015680.83
MIRO HEISKANEND22DAL1631013670.81
ZACH WERENSKID24CBJ164913670.81

We had five players who were performing above a 75-point pace or above. It was a very impressive showing. In case anyone was concerned D performance has not dropped off. We now have eight players performing above a 75-point pace.

Name82GP PacePTS/GP
CALE MAKAR951.16
ROMAN JOSI851.04
ADAM FOX821
VICTOR HEDMAN800.98
DEVON TOEWS800.98
AARON EKBLAD770.94
KRIS LETANG770.94
TONY DEANGELO760.93

There is a significant amount of overlap between these two lists, and there really isn't a lot to say about Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, and Roman Josi. These are elite defensemen who are performing at an elite level. Guys like Tony DeAngelo and Aaron Ekblad sustaining isn't really a surprise either. I could definitely fawn over these performances (and someone definitely should), but I actually wanted to check in on a few other players.

Seth Jones was a very splashy addition over the summer with talk ranging from "now Chicago is a cup contender" to "Jones is an anchor going to drag the whole ship down." From a fantasy perspective, there was some hype as he is a functional human being who might be given the top power-play along with some elite players. He delivered for managers to start the season with 15 points in 18 games (a 68-point pace) and averaging just shy of five minutes of power-play time. He was hitting and blocking too. Since then, the power-play time has dropped (though he is still the top power-play quarterback), and seen a big drop in point production. In the 35 games since then he has been putting up a 45ish point pace. On the whole he is on about a 56-point pace and that seems about right. His personal shooting percentage is a touch low 2.6 percent versus 4.4 percent recent average, but everything else looks reasonable.

Just outside of the top ten at the six-week mark was Alex Goligoski. He seemed to be clicking with his new team in Minnesota with 12 points in 16 games (for a 66-point pace). As of March 3 he had not gotten a point in 13 games and has only a 38-point pace since those first 16 games. He has lost almost a minute and a half of ice-time as well. It was a surprise to see him performing so well initially, and unfortunately, the bottom isn't quite done falling out. He has dropped to a 45-point pace on the season, and his personal, and team five-on-five shooting percentages are still quite high.

At 34 and seeing some drops in his shot and block rates in 2020-21, plus his history as a band-aid boy, plus some questions about breaking up the Penguins core, Kris Letang seemed to fall a bit in drafts. He had ten points in his first 14 games, which is a 59-point pace, which was certainly a reasonable start. Since then though he has absolutely caught fire. Since November 29th he has put up 37 points in 34 games (an 89-point pace) and has been clicking on the top power-play. On the season he is now up to a 77-point pace and if anything, that pace is too cold. His personal shooting percentage, team five-on-five shooting percentage, and secondary assist rates are all lower than average. A 90-point pace probably isn't happening the rest of the season, but point per game seems totally in the cards.

Shayne Gostisbehere was a bit of a pariah in the offseason. He hadn't been performing all that well and was a healthy scratch several times over his final season in Philly. Joining the Coyotes didn't seem to be an ideal situation for him, but he certainly started the season well. He put up 14 points over his first 19 games for a 60-point pace. At the time some pieces were looking a bit unsustainable and it kind of seemed like everyone was waiting for the other shoe to drop, and it kept kind of not. He managed to sustain a 57-point pace all the way through January 14. Fast forward and he has definitely slowed. He has only put up five points over his last 18 games and has dropped to a full season 48-point pace, only slightly up from his 41 games in Philly last season. His underlying numbers seemed to have evened out, so it is much more likely that he returns to that full season 45ish point pace, than the more recent 22ish point pace for the rest of the season.

Devon Toews did not make our list to start the season as his first game was on November 6. He has been non-stop since. He started with ten points in his first nine games to finish the first quarter, 22 points in 21 games through the second quarter and has now "slowed" to 10 points in 13 third-quarter games. That leaves him with 42 points in 43 games, or an 80-point pace season. That is a modest improvement from his career high 48-point pace from Colorado last season. There are some red flags here with his personal and team shooting percentages a bit high, but some of this is for real. Maybe he won't be a point per game defensemen, but 65-70 points? As the second highest scoring defensemen in Colorado? Not too bad.

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