Saturday’s Game Picks: Oilers Should Score Plenty
Flip Livingstone
2022-03-05
Welcome back, everyone, to our favorite day of the week on the NHL schedule for so many reasons. Tradition, history, and a full slate of games. What more could you ask for when it comes to watching hockey and throwing down some wagers?
Speaking of which, 10 games await with plenty of opportunities to stack some cash for a stretch run that is sure to be an entertaining one. We mentioned it last week: with the playoffs bearing down on us you can expect a number of the top teams in the league with legit Cup aspirations to really start to solidify themselves and secure playoff positioning as much as possible. This is crucial to avoid any kind of scenario in which a team does not control its own destiny at the end of the season. Nothing worse than scoreboard watching with your season on the line.
With that said, let's dig in and get this paper. Good luck today and enjoy all the action.
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Flip's Picks
2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)
Gold: 7-4
Silver: 3-8
Bronze: 7-4
Side bets: 16-16
Total Saturday Record: 33-32-0
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Gold Pick
Seattle Kraken @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Capitals (PL -1.5) +100
Following what has been a wild week-and-a-half for the Washington Capitals, in the wake of Alex Ovechkin's comments on the war in Ukraine to players even receiving death threats and more, the Caps got back to what they do best: beating up on Eastern Conference opponents.
Ovie and the boys put up a statement 4-0 shutout victory against a very good Carolina Hurricanes squad to snap a nasty three-game slide that felt like it might derail Washington's shot at another Cup run. With the window for winning shrinking rapidly in the U.S. capital, the pressure to win is clear and palpable with this Capitals group. With that I expect a very big performance on home ice following what is sure to be a turn-around-type win against their division rival last time out versus the Hurricanes.
There's also the revenge factor to consider here in this head-to-head matchup, as the Kraken laid a beatdown on the Capitals in their first and only meeting this season to the tune of a 5-2 victory. This just feels like a great spot for a Washington win while it sits in a precarious spot in the Metro and wild-card standings.
Seattle has one win in its last eight games overall and only one win over its last six games away from home – they are not a good team, bottom line. There isn't any value in betting this game in Washington's favor on the moneyline, but I think this is a slam-dunk situation, one in which you can expect the Capitals to win by at least two-or-more tallies. Hammer the Caps, my Gold Pick of the day.
Silver Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Edmonton Oilers (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Over -115
I am going to keep this super simple: expect a ton of goals in this matchup. Goal horns aplenty I almost always have at least one OVER/UNDER selection as part of my Top-3 picks each week and this is one of those cases that just jumps off the page for me in terms of a total.
Both of these teams seem to be regularly involved in games that have crooked numbers posted on the scoreboard, but that is especially true when they meet head-to-head.
The four most-recent meetings between Montreal and Edmonton have all gone OVER the total. In fact, those four games combined for a whopping total of 30 goals scored – I don't think I really need to say much else here to sell you on a sound OVER bet. However, a quick glance at the lengthy list of key players missing from the Habs lineup at literally every position has me feeling like the Oilers themselves might be able to take this one OVER the number.
Do not overthink this one. Five of Montreal's last six games against the Pacific Division have all gone well OVER the total and I think that happens again tonight with ease for two clubs who are playing well offensively over the past couple of games. If you're feeling a bit shook, tease this number down to 5.5 for lower odds and collect the loot. Either way, OVER is the move here for my Silver play.
Bronze Pick
Auston Matthews (Anytime Goalscorer) -115
You know I had to get in my Maple Leafs angle somewhere, but hang with me, this is a great spot for a big bounce-back night for both Auston Matthews and the Leafs as an entire group.
There's no denying it: Toronto has been pretty inconsistent since returning from the All-Star break, which came to a head Wednesday night when the Leafs were embarrassed on home ice in front of a full-capacity crowd at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres to the tune of 5-1.
Matthews is having another sensational, Hart-caliber season and is usually an instrumental reason for Toronto's success night in and night out. However, both Matthews and his entire team need to be a lot better if they ever want to shake the first-round demons and go on any kind of run.
No. 34 has been held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games, but he has not gone more than two games without a point more than once this season – that was back in November when he opened the year on a three-game pointless streak. Aside from that, Matthews has been nothing short of an offensive dynamo and beast at both ends of the rink for Toronto, and I could see him busting out in a big way against a Vancouver team he has shredded in his career (15 goals in 18 games).
There is no denying Matthews is the heart and soul of this club who has taken his game to another level this year while honing his defensive game and becoming a very difficult forward to play against. Part of becoming a complete player is also answering the bell when your team needs you most, and that is the part of the season we are entering for a Maple Leafs club clinging to the third and final Atlantic Division playoff spot.
Time to put up or shut up in Toronto. Let's see what they got. Matthews has a big game and so do the Buds. Matthews anytime goalscorer for my Bronze Pick of the day.
Side Bets
Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pick: Bruins (ML) -220
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Under -110
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Vlad's Picks
Gold Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Edmonton Oilers – Pick: Oilers
I'm using my reverse uno card here. Just a week after correctly picking the Habs as favorites in their matchup against Ottawa as my gold pick, I have them going down tonight when facing the Oilers. We may not yet be in that final stretch of the season, but we are at a point where teams fighting for a playoff spot don't want to lose games to the bottom-of-the-barrel boys. I won't risk placing a bet on the spread as Montreal has been nothing short of a scoring machine since Martin St. Louis took over, but their AHL-level goalies and defensive unit shouldn't be able to stop Edmonton's smothering offense. Just like the Thursday night game against Calgary, I expect this to game to have close to ten total goals scored. I encourage everyone to bet on the over of the game as well, whatever that may be.
Since their five-game win streak, the Oilers have been wildly inconsistent. They've barely been able to score over three goals and have allowed an inhumane number of goals. This small offensive drought should stop against Sam Montembeault, who allowed seven goals against Winnipeg a few nights ago and had to be pulled out in favor of Andrew Hammond, who suffered an injury following the Calgary win. Thus, after a heartbreaking defeat against the Blackhawks where they managed to come back from behind all game long, they should manage to pull a win at home and get that much closer to a postseason berth. If not, there is much to be discussed about the character of that team, who, on paper, should clearly obliterate Montreal.
Silver Pick
Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pick: Bruins (-1.5)
Some people out there just don't take criticism well. They get angry, stop talking to you and ask for a trade. Other people use it as fuel to overcome challenges and prove their worth even more. Jeremy Swayman is one of those people. With every game he plays, he makes the Tuukka Rask episode look more and more ridiculous, and demonstrates that he should never have to step foot into the city of Providence again. At only 23 years of age, he is already threatening Linus Ullmark's number one spot in Boston, and that's assuming he hasn't already won that title. His save percentages have been higher than .935 in his last seven games, a stretch during which he hasn't allowed more than two goals per game. It looks like his defensive unit, who started the season in an iffy way, has finally found its footing, as Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo are playing like second and third options on a more consistent basis.
Boston has also scored three or more goals in their last seven games. Their offense has practically no injuries, and players like Taylor Hall, Erik Haula, Craig Smith and especially Jake DeBrusk have finally brought some much needed scoring support to the Bruins' big three. Meanwhile, Columbus' defensive unit is about as ugly to look at as Montreal's. While they do have the incontestably talented Zach Werenski and the surprisingly productive Vladislav Gavrikov, with Adam Boqvist's injury, they're left with pretty much AHLers to fill up the rest of the blue line. With them ranking 31st in goals against per game and dead last in shots against per game, Boston should have a field day tonight.
Bronze Pick
Vancouver Canucks @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Over/under 6.5) – Pick: Under
Third week in a row for me with a Leafs bet. I proudly predicted their "dominance" last week against Detroit and got shamed two weeks ago against St. Louis, so this here is the tiebreaker. And it's one that I myself find quite odd, but still strongly believe in. The meat of my argument is certainly Jack Campbell (whom, according to Goalie Post, is expected to start tonight). He is currently going through what is probably his toughest stint since joining the Maple Leafs, having allowed either four or five goals in his last three games. That being said, Campbell is clearly a very emotional, heart-on-the-table kind of guy, and, after seeing his beloved teammates display some atrocious hockey against the Sabres three days ago, he will come out tonight wanting to bring back some stability by going back to his usual self.
Meanwhile, Vancouver's last seven games have ended with seven or more goals being scored from both sides. After an okay performance against the Islanders, Thatcher Demko should step back up to keep his team in the game. Considering he has played all but three games for Vancouver in 2022, he will definitely need his defensive unit to help him out as fatigue will creep in more and more as we approach the end of the season.
Side Bets
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche – Pick: Flames (+1.5)
Nashville Predators @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Sharks
Seattle Kraken @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Capitals (-1.5)
Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.