Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we’ll jump around doing some quick hits—brief observations about prospects from a range of leagues who are worthy of note.

Timelines for Pro vs. Junior Prospects

The longer I play in keeper and dynasty leagues, the more I've started mentally bumping the value of prospects like Matias Maccelli, who are producing well at a young age in the AHL. Would you prefer Adam Beckman (MIN) or Sasha Pastujov (ANA), for instance? Beckman led the WHL in scoring two years ago but Pastujov, as a 2021 draft pick, might have more buzz right now, especially after roaring out of the gates this year in the OHL. Pastujov has since come back down to earth, and both he (54 points in 45 OHL games) and Beckman (24 points in 45 AHL games) have been somewhat underwhelming.

Given the choice, I would lean towards the underperforming AHL guy because he's a couple years closer than someone doing pretty well in junior. Beckman could conceivably get a call up to the Wild any time, whereas Pastujov is likely at least a couple years away. That's two years where he's taking up a spot on your farm instead of providing even depth coverage as an NHL rookie. Even though Beckman isn't having the strongest year on paper, he's likely grappling with all the intangibles of the pro game that don't come into play in junior. If he can figure things out, he could be contributing to your team by next year.

Coyotes' Secret Weapon

Fantasy owners are starting to realize that it's not Marco Rossi (MIN), Alexander Holtz (NJD), or Cole Perfetti (WPG) leading the AHL in rookie scoring this year—it's 21-year-old Arizona prospect Maccelli. Jack Quinn (BUF) has a slight edge in points-per-game but in 17 fewer games. Maccelli is third overall in league scoring. He was recently called up to the Coyotes and played his first NHL games (no points), so as far as prospects go, he's closer to being fantasy relevant than high-flying junior producers like Luke Evangelista and Joshua Roy.

Maccelli, a former fourth-round pick (2019) is a quick-skating playmaking winger. He carries the puck confidently and always has his head up reading the defence. He can absolutely snipe pucks himself but is also skilled at drawing the defence to him and slipping the puck to a teammate in a higher danger area. Watching footage of him from a couple years ago in the Liiga, he was noticeably smaller than most of his peers. His NHL page now lists him at 5-11 and 176 lbs—still on the smaller end but he seems to be bulking up. He pops when he has the puck because of his rapid and deceptive movements; he has that intangible quality that makes stars look like they're moving in fast forward, like when Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon dance into the opposing zone with speed.

After dominating the USHL three years ago, Maccelli spent the past two years playing against men in the Liiga where he was the top-scoring rookie in 2019-20. Consistency has been an issue for him at the pro level—his production slowed dramatically in both of the years he spent in Finland. Perhaps that two-year audition prepared him for the jump to the AHL more than some of his peers who played in junior.

Whatever the case, Maccelli played primarily with Phil Kessel and recovery project Alex Galchenyuk during his first taste of NHL action, demonstrating that the Coyotes are giving him a chance in the top six with a bit of power play time on top. Because of his slighter frame, low draft position, and the fact that he plays for the Coyotes, a renowned graveyard for offence, there's a decent chance Maccelli is still available in your league. He might not end up as a top-line talent when all is said and done, but he's reminiscent of a player like Mats Zuccarello and looks to be a useful player in fantasy moving forward. The best-case scenario would see him establish himself as a core piece for Arizona moving forward alongside young guns Dylan Guenther and Barrett Hayton.

Spence's Future with the Kings

Jordan Spence has transitioned incredibly smoothly to professional hockey (38 points in 43 AHL games) and might be a savvy under-the-radar stash. His production in junior and now in the AHL shows that he's clearly a talented offensive defenceman.

But his opportunity is murky.

The Kings have seven defencemen whose contracts are up after this season. Of those, Alex Edler (UFA), Olli Maatta (UFA), Mikey Anderson (RFA), and Sean Durzi (RFA) have been mainstays in the top four and are worthy of note. As you can see in the chart below, Edler and Anderson have consistently driven play (blue bubbles) and will probably be re-signed, while Maatta (orange bubble on the left behind Matt Roy) and Durzi have struggled.

Durzi gets a pass for now as a rookie but Maatta is an established vet who just isn't pulling his weight. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Kings move on from him at the deadline or in the offseason. Assuming the Kings don't sign a free agent, could Spence step into that spot?

Unlikely.

Maatta plays the left side while Spence plays the right. With Drew Doughty (6 years left) and Roy (3 years) both signed long term on the right side, Spence will need to either leapfrog Durzi or get called up due to injury to see NHL action in the near future. Durzi might not have the strongest possession numbers but he's playing over 17 mins including 40% of the available power-play time (seven PP points), so the coaches like what they're seeing from him. If Maatta moves along and Edler can't continue his career, the Kings will likely bring someone in via free agency to play the left side on the third pairing behind Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot.

Another big hurdle for Spence is the impending arrival of blue-chipper Brandt Clarke, who also plays the right side. Clarke has improved his already sky-high stock this year by scoring 52 points in 44 OHL games for the Barrie Colts in his D+1 campaign. He already boasted the second-highest star potential in the 2021 class (62%) behind Guenther and now sits first by a wide margin (78%). If that wasn't impressive enough, check this out: Clarke's top four comparables via Hockey Prospecting are Rasmus Dahlin, Chris Pronger, Brian Leetch, and Quinn Hughes. Not too shabby. Expect Clarke to follow the usual progression for players of his calibre: AHL next year (D+2), NHL after that.

That means that Spence (25%-star potential this year) needs to continue forcing management's hand with his strong play on the farm to ensure he's first in line for call-ups if and when injuries hit. It's likely too early for fantasy owners in shallower leagues to roster him, but if you have space, he would make an above-average stash given his apparent upside and year-over-year improvements.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.