Ramblings – A Sneaky Dynasty Recommendation, Further Schmaltz fallout, Zuke and More (Mar 07)

Dobber

2022-03-07

I'm still reeling from the Nick Schmaltz game on Saturday. Ian had plenty to say about that game here, but it's just too impactful to slip right by me without mention.

That's quite the list of names there, and only one of whom turned into a bust. And while I like Schmaltz's consistency better than Sam Gagner's, that is countered by his proneness to injury. But if this guy can put his injury woes behind him, he's just entering his prime at 26 years old. And although his Breakout Threshold should have began 100 games before it actually did (he's now at 336 career games), I find that when there is an exception to our BT guideline it's almost always due to frequent injuries. In this case, Schmaltz missed much of 2018-19, played all of 2019-20 and most of last season (missed the last four games with a head injury) before missing 19 games this season (UBI).

Seven-point games don't grow on trees, so I'm sold on Schmaltz's ability. But I'm also firm on his reliable injuries. So for now I consider him a player who will give you 65 points in 70 games, with upside for more if, as I said above, he can kick the injuries. It's also nice to see that Arizona, despite having a terrible organization with a weak prospect pool, can still boast two players who can reach that level of production (Clayton Keller is looking more and more like an 80-point star now).

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With the shutout on Sunday, Cal Petersen is 10-3-0 in 2022. The veteran Jonathan Quick had a nice run early on to regain control of the top starter job, but it's clear where this is heading for the Kings. Here are the two since the turn of the calendar:

Petersen: 10-3-0, 2.24 GAA, 0.910 SV%, -0.274 GSAA, 57.1 QS%

Quick: 6-4-2, 3.25 GAA, 0.880 SV%, -9.876 GSAA, 33.3 QS%

Trading Quick by Christmas would have been the wise move in hindsight, so kudos to you if you did that.

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Midway through the third period, Viktor Arvidsson left the game with an LBI. Here is the play:

Arvidsson had 18 points in 18 games heading into this one.

Alex Tuch for the Sabres also left the game after going headfirst into the post. The team has ruled out a head injury, but he was reportedly getting imaging done. While Tuch has just two points in his last six games, overall he has 23 in 25 since joining Buffalo.

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The Devils split Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes a couple of weeks ago as they try to spread out the offense. You'll probably continue to see that since they won on Sunday. Overall, the move has really sparked the offense – but defense is another matter. Hughes was on a line with Yegor Sharangovich and Dawson Mercer, while Bratt is with Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar. Anyway, this hasn't slowed Bratt any. Nothing seems to. He has eight points in his last six games, Hughes has 16 in his last 10.

Mercer had been slumping without Bratt, but now that he has Hughes on his line he has 10 points in 10 games.

Left out of the top six? Pavel Zacha. He does have eight points in his last nine games despite this.

Still weird – Nathan Bastian, he of one point in his last 17 games, saw six minutes of power-play time for New Jersey. He averages 2:37 PPTOI since January 13 (20 games). Explain that one to me.

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Jason Robertson put forth a killer stat line with a hattrick, including one on the power play, plus 6 SOG, 2 PIM and 2 BLKS. It was his second consecutive game with three goals, and he has eight goals in his last five games (on 24 SOG). Over his last nine games he has nearly doubled his shots-per-game average output at just over five (he was just under three prior to the run). Not coincidentally, linemates Joe Pavelski's and Roope Hintz's assists have skyrocketed lately. It's Hintz who has been taking fewer shots.

Robertson reached his 100th NHL point in his 101st NHL game. Only seven other active players in the NHL reached 100 points in 101 games: Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Kaprizov, McDavid, Stastny and Barzal. Not a bad list.

Tyler Seguin has quietly posted 18 points in his last 19 games.

Miro Heiskanen has missed the last two games with an illness and it is interesting to see how his minutes were distributed. John Klingberg? Ryan Suter? Esa Lindell? Nope, nope and nope. It's Jani Hakanpaa. In fact, with Klingberg and Lindell spending time in the box on Sunday, Hakanpaa played over 28 minutes. The 6-6, 29-year-old rearguard has value in leagues that track Hits and BLKS. He has a shot at 280 and 120 this season (he had three Hits and four BLKS on Sunday).

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For the 12th time in his last 19 games, Mats Zuccarello posted a multiple-point game. At 34 years of age, thanks to amazing chemistry with Kirill Kaprizov (who to me is the next Nikita Kucherov – he'll push for an Art Ross at some point). Zuccarello has 56 points in 46 games and needs just six more to set a career high.

Since his four-point game on Valentine's Day, Matt Boldy has six points in 10 games. The 20-year-old is coming back down to earth. But I love his outlook, especially with his chemistry with Kevin Fiala. But this last half-season there will be some ups and downs.

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While Cam Talbot struggles, Kaapo Kahkonen seems to be going down the same road. He has lost four straight games and has posted two Really Bad Starts (RBS) in his last three games. Kahkonen got the hook on Sunday, while Talbot has given up at least four goals in each of his last five starts! The Wild are generally a team you consider money-in-the-bank when it comes to keeping the pucks out. With Kahkonen, I've said it here many times over the last two years – he is at his best when he gets a heavy workload. He is not great with sporadic starts. His best run of the season was during Talbot's injury absence. Same goes for last season – Kahkonen was great early, when Talbot was hurt. As soon as Talbot was back, Kahkonen struggled.

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Is Alexis Lafreniere slowly figuring it out? He has seven points in his last 11 games and five in his last six. All at even strength. It's not much, but it's probably the best signs of life we've seen out of him in his brief NHL career to date. Playing with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider certainly helps. This might be the last season you can acquire him at a relatively low price – similar to Jack Hughes last year.

Igor Shesterkin is 10-0-0 when making 40-plus saves in a game. Reflect on that for a moment. Only one other goalie in NHL history has done that – Tuukka Rask. Next goalie rankings I do, he's getting bumped to Tier 0 (and Connor Hellebuyck gets knocked to Tier 1).

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This is dirty:

Mikhail Sergachev picked up three points on Sunday and has eight in his last seven games. The 23-year-old's offensive progress has been nice and steady, which is perfect for prognosticators such as myself. His points-per-game average in 2018-19 was 0.43, followed by 0.49, 0.54 and now 0.61. The latter is a 50-point pace. As it was with his early-season hot run, he is doing this while being partnered with Victor Hedman.

It took Corey Perry 18 games to score his first goal of the season. He's scored 16 in 38 since then. If he continues at the latter pace, he'll get to 27 goals this season! I'd love to see him crack 30. What a shocker that would be.

Tampa, by the way, scored three goals in 32 seconds in that game. That's the 10th fastest three goals scored by one team in the last 40 years.

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Dylan Strome has five points during a three-game points streak. He's back with Patrick Kane and – for now – they seem to have caught lightning in a bottle again. Dominik Kubalik was the other linemate on Sunday, though Kubalik was held off the scoreboard.

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The Sens may have lost Sunday, but Anton Forsberg was huge yet again. He stopped 40 of 42. Since January 23, here are Forsberg's numbers: 5-4-1, 2.27 GAA, 0.936 SV%, an astounding +8.951 GSAA (goals saved above average) and a 72.7 QS%. These are elite numbers over a fairly substantial stretch of games (11). If Ottawa gives him any kind of long-term contract, I'm suddenly quite interested in him in dynasty leagues. Yes, he's 29. And he's not the obvious future for Ottawa. But Matt Murray is injury prone and Filip Gustavsson, 23, isn't ready yet (don't let me go off on another rant about goalie age and readiness!). The Senators are going to be a good team very soon – one or two years. And, depending on how that contract looks, Forsberg could be one of those goalies who sneak up on you. I'm reminded of Devan Dubnyk after he went to Minnesota. Or Craig Anderson with Colorado.

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Chandler Stephenson was out of the top six on Sunday, with linemates William Carrier and Michael Amadio. It was Nicolas Roy who was moved into the top six to play with Jack Eichel and Max Pacioretty. Stephenson has eight points in his last 21 games after starting with 34 in 33. I just dug up this Tweet and am pleasantly surprised to see that I wrote it 21 games ago:

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An update:

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See you next Monday.

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