Lining Up: Goaltending Battles with Ullmark, Swayman, Talbot, and Kahkonen

Peter Ryell

2022-03-15

Welcome back to a special edition of Lining Up. This week will examine goalies and the ongoing battles to earn the coveted spot of "lining up" on their respective creases. As this will involve different players on the ice than previous columns, a quick recap of some advanced goalie stats is in order.

Along with Save Percentage and Goals Against Average, this column will also use Quality Start Percentage, Really Bad Start Percentage and Goals Saved Above Average (QS%, RBS% and GSAA respectively). Quality Starts is a game where a goalie had a save percentage at or above the league average. Really Bad Start is a game where a goalie had a save percentage of .850 or below. Goals Saved Above Average is a comparison of how many goals your goaltender allowed against how many goals a league-average goalie would allow on the same amount of shots, resulting in a positive or negative number from 0.

For example, Igor Shesterkin so far this season has a 2.07 GAA, 0.938 SV% 71.8 QS% and a 33.61 GSAA. This means that 71.8% of the time, Shesterkin will have a save percentage above the league average and that he makes many more saves than the average goalie.

Let's dive in.

Linus UllmarkJeremy Swayman

Fresh off of a shiny new five million dollar contract, Ullmark seemed poised to fill the void that Tuukka Rask left behind. Indeed in over 100 starts across multiple seasons toiling away in the basement on Buffalo, Ullmark still managed to produce better than average numbers. In his last three seasons where he played at least 20 games in each season, Ullmark averaged a 0.912 SV%. Since moving behind a playoff contending team in Boston? 0.907. Not the worst in the league by far but certainly not what Boston was hoping for when he was signed.

Even if it is better than league average it turns out that it is not good enough for Boston to stop sending out their waiver exempt rookie in Swayman. Compared to Ullmark (or most goalies for that matter), Swayman has been lights out. He is currently riding a goalie hot streak with eight Wins and six QS in his last eight games played. Over the last month he has enjoyed a significant portion of the starts, playing ten games to Ullmark's four which brings the two net minders to nearly even in starts on the season.

Overall the comparison really illustrates a stark contrast:

Ullmark

2.81 GAA, 0.907 SV%, 41.4 QS% and -3.08 GSAA

Swayman

2.06 GAA, 0.926%, 64.3 QS% and 11.17 GSAA.

Again this is with nearly identical games played so equal sample sizes so far this season. Boston is one of the busiest teams during fantasy playoffs playing 14 games over the final three weeks. At 78% rostered in Yahoo leagues Swayman potentially may even be available which if he is you will definitely want to add him while you can. Otherwise between his current workload and Rask officially retiring, expect Swayman to at least challenge for lining up in the crease going into next season.

Cam TalbotKaapo Kahkonen

Another interesting battle going on is in Minnesota with current starter Talbot and another waiver exempt young up-and-comer in Kahkonen trying to make a push for the starting job. However in this case, both goalies are currently struggling and neither can seem to mount enough quality starts in a row to completely overtake the other and be the sole starter lining up behind a solid Minnesota defence corps.

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Over the last month, both goalies have equal or more RBS to QS. Talbot has posted a 3.61 GAA and 0.881 SV% while Kahkonen is working with a 3.77 GAA and 0.880 SV%. Both goalies have been splitting starts with nine for Talbot and eight for Kahkonen so there seems to be no clear goaltender at the moment. When examining the season overall the picture is still the same, with both goalies playing evenly and mediocre.

Talbot

3.00 GAA, 0.906 SV%, 50 QS% and -5.83 GSAA

Kahkonen

2.87 GAA, 0.910 SV%, 56% and -0.67 GSAA.

Very similar numbers with Kahkonen having slightly better ratios. However Talbot has started 36 games to Kahkonen's 25 and has won a higher percentage of the games he has played. In addition, being the designated starter based on contract and with Kahkonen not performing in the same manner as Swayman, Talbot has been able to retain a higher portion of the starts.

An interesting note on Kahkonen though is how well he performs whenever he has been allowed to start in several successive games. He is really able to build on his play and go on a roll. For example, earlier this season Talbot was injured and missed time from January 1 to January 24. During that time Kahkonen started seven games and won five of them with a 2.19 GAA, 0.938 SV% and an 85 QS%.

When Talbot missed time last season from mid-January to the end of February, Kahkonen started 11 games, winning seven of them and posted a 2.37 GAA, 0.917 SV% and a 54.5 QS%.  His season totals last year? 2.88 GAA, 0.902 SV% and 41.7 QS%. Kahkonen has significantly better numbers when he has a full workload. However the catch 22 is that he needs to perform well to receive more starts but needs more starts in order perform well.

On the off chance that Talbot is injured or misses any significant time, expect Kahkonen to go on a roll. At only 38% rostered in Yahoo leagues, consider taking a gamble on him if you can afford the roster space. Similar to Boston, Minnesota plays 14 games in the final weeks of playoffs but more significantly they will play lighter competition. Even splitting duties could result in Kahkonen being roster worthy down the stretch.

Next week will examine more goalies trying to see if they can line up behind their respective teams.

Stay safe.

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