Ramblings: Updates on Eller, Chychrun, and Reimer; Ice Time Changes for Romanov, Caleb Jones, and More – March 15

Michael Clifford

2022-03-15

We had just one game in the NHL on Monday night and it was the Arizona Coyotes heading into Ottawa to face the Senators. That is about as uninteresting as it can get at this point of the season, though there aren't many games that are uninteresting from a fantasy perspective.

Lawson Crouse tallied his first career hat trick on Monday night in Arizona. In fact, it was his third multi-goal game of the season, and the third multi-goal game of his career. With 18 goals, he’s easily cleared his career-best of 15 set two years ago. He could be turning the corner as a fantasy asset, though the team behind him has a long way to go.

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The Avalanche traded for Ducks defenceman Josh Manson on Monday. Dobber’s take can be read here.

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Lars Eller is on the COVID list:

That is the second time for him this season and he's now in quarantine. Hopefully it's not for long.

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An update on Jakob Chychrun:

That isn’t good news, for him or the team. It isn’t great news for a possible trade, nor is it good news for fantasy owners in general. It’s just all bad.

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Bowen Byram full practice in a non-contact jersey:

Seeing Byram skated with coaches before practice is one thing, seeing him skate with teammates in full practice is another. A very good sign for the young blue liner, but still a ways to go, obviously.

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Auston Matthews has received a two-game suspension:

I have been personally railing against cross-checks for years now and the one he laid is no worse than a dozen of the fines handed out over the last two years. I mean, Jamie Benn broke Dylan Larkin's neck with a cross-check and got nothing. The Department of Player Safety has largely been and will continue to be a complete farce.  

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James Reimer looks like he's ready to go.

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At a different website I work for, I write or do videos about daily fantasy hockey basically on an, erm, daily basis. In doing so, it's easy to notice ice time changes that are occurring across the league. To say the least, there are a lot of significant fantasy options that have seen their ice time take a big hit of late.

This isn't to say that every player who has lost a minute or two in TOI is a guy to get rid of. This is to say that, generally speaking, the guys who rack up peripherals tend to get more ice time than their teammates. Ditto for points, though that's a little less precarious once we get past the super-elite producers. Regardless, if minutes are going away from some players, that means there are more minutes available for others, so one player's lost value could be another player's gained value.

With all that out of the way (and using data from Natural Stat Trick), let's look at how ice time has changed between January and the six weeks since. To begin, we'll look at the guys with the biggest ice time change. Each of these guys have seen at least two minutes added over the last six weeks, with some over three minutes, and one over five minutes.

Caleb Jones

The biggest TOI jump for any player in our sample came from Chicago's Caleb Jones. He was skating basically 13-13:30 a night for most of the season but is near 18:30 a night over his last 13 games dating to the All-Star break. In that span, he has 7 points, 15 shots, 23 hits, and 17 blocks. Whether he maintains those rates or not, we'll see, but in multi-cat leagues, any defenceman that can pace for nearly 40 points, 100 shots, 150 hits, and 100 blocks is valuable. The points are what might disappear here, but the uptick in peripherals (particularly hits) could make him a nice depth option in banger leagues.

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Nick Schmaltz

Given that he has 24 points in his last 15 games dating to February 1st, it's easy to forget he wasn't given a prime role after the holiday break. He was skating around 15-15:30 a night at the time. Since the calendar turned to February, though, he's near 19 minutes a night, and is arguably on the biggest hot streak in the league. He's surely rostered in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes by now, but he's back in his top-line, top PP role consistently, and the rewards are evident.

One thing I do enjoy is the symmetry between he and Dylan Strome of late, as the 'Hawks' pivot has also seen a big ice time increase, and a commensurate production increase.

Teuvo Teravainen

Another player who is surely rostered but this is simply a function of Teravainen being given a consistent top-line role with Carolina. He has been a staple of the top line and their special teams, which means lots of ice time. It should be noted that he's a point-per-game player in the timeframe we're discussing, but he's still at 2.8 shots per game, which is his season's average. We haven't seen a massive uptick in peripherals, though that may come later.

Zach Hyman

This is just a function of injuries on the team (and probably a coaching change). With both Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins out of the lineup, Hyman has been a fixture of the top PP unit, whereas he had been often moved around through the year. He will still tussle with Kailer Yamamoto for some PPTOI, but he's absolutely going to be leaned on heavily until those guys return from injury. He has 35 shots on goal in his last eight games, skating over 23 minutes a night. He has zero goals in those games. It does feel like he's about to explode offensively any game now.

Rasmus Ristolainen

The newly-extended Ristolainen is starting to play a lot more of late, skating north of 23 minutes a night over the last six-or-so weeks. For a guy who relies heavily on peripherals for fantasy value, adding three minutes of TOI a night is a critical increase for him. He has a whopping 54 hits in his last 12 games (!!!) and 34 blocks to boot. We are talking over 350 hits and over 225 blocks over a full season at those paces. Those are just absolutely ridiculous rates, so his fantasy owners could very much enjoy having him on their rosters for the next six weeks.

Alexander Romanov      

Here we have a defenceman who may still be available on the waiver wire, if only because of the team he plays for and how they fared for the first four months of the season. He had the fifth-biggest TOI increase of any defenceman in our sample, and that should have led to a fantasy increase. The issue is we haven't seen a big peripheral uptick with the additional ice time, so maybe there's a change to the way the coaches want him to play, compared to the old regime. If nothing else, we'll see how he holds up with the added ice time and what kind of role he could play on this team next season.

Jason Robertson

Robertson was a guy I wanted to see a TOI increase from. He has been one of the top forwards in all of hockey, not just among rookie/sophomore stars, over the last two seasons, but was skating 17 minutes a night. Well, that has completely stopped, as he's pushing 20 minutes a night over the last six weeks and has passed 21 minutes in each of his last two games. He has 14 goals in those 15 games, though just one assist, which is hilarious. As long as the ice time stays here, there could be big upside for the rest of the season.

On the flipside, some of the bigger ice time declines are as follows.

Evan Bouchard

There may not be a more frustrating fantasy option this year in the league than Bouchard. At the least, he's in the conversation among healthy players. He has been Yo-Yo'd up and down the lineup, sometimes skating PP1, sometimes not. Sometimes skating 26 minutes a night, sometimes 13 minutes. The problem is those 13-minute games are a lot more frequent of late as he has eight games with under 15 minutes this season, and seven of them have come since February 1st. He hasn't cracked 21 minutes a game in over a month. It seems his fantasy value for this season, barring further injuries, is minimal. He still has a bright future but the balance of this season isn't looking good.  

Andrew Copp

It really is a weird year for Copp. He skated at least 20 minutes a game very month until February. Then he skated 18:04 in that month and is just over 16:30 this month. Losing (up to) four minutes per game is bad for anyone. The team is healthy now, but Copp is also a UFA so he may not be with the Jets for much longer. It is hard to see him going somewhere else and skating 20 minutes a night, but maybe he can end up with more than the 16:30 he's getting now. We shall see.

Rasmus Asplund

With the Sabres getting healthy in the second half, namely the returns of Casey Mittelstadt and Alex Tuch, some guys have seen their ice time disappear. Asplund is one of those guys, as he has not seen 15 minutes a game since a month ago today. He had a reasonably good start to the season with 12 points in 22 games, some nice depth production. He has just 5 points in 26 games since January 1st and it's hard to see a big turnaround coming skating 12 minutes a night.

Seth Jarvis

It is hard for rookies to get and maintain a top-6 role for an entire season, which is what makes guys like Lucas Raymond and Trevor Zegras special. Here we have Seth Jarvis, who looked like a burgeoning offensive dynamo in the first half of the season, or at least someone that could play in the top-6. That has all but disappeared with Jarvis not cracking 13 minutes in a game for eight straight games. His role is gone, but it's not to say he can't get it back with a late surge. Keep an eye on him.

Nate Schmidt

There has been something weird going on in Winnipeg where basically all the minutes are going to Josh Morrissey with the rest of the blue line skating under 20 minutes a night. Schmidt has not cracked 20 minutes in a game for 16 straight games, which seems unfathomable given they don't have any elite defencemen. But the Jets are winning games so it's unlikely to change anytime soon. That is bad news for fantasy owners of anyone on that blue line but Morrissey.

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