Ramblings – It’s NHL Trade Deadline Day! ‘Nuff Said (Mar 21)

Dobber

2022-03-21

Minor Moves (not worthy of a full article – to be updated throughout the day)

Ottawa trades Nick Paul to Tampa Bay for Mathieu Joseph. Joseph is solid return. He just turned 25, kills penalties, and has upside in the low 50s if he can play with skilled linemates. Whereas Tampa gets a huge forward (6-3, 224) who gets similar production but is decent for faceoffs. Paul has been a strong defensive forward this year. Compare the two players here.

Defenseman Jeremy Lauzon was traded from Seattle to Nashville for a second rounder.

Prospect Jack McBain was traded by the Wild to Arizona for a second rounder. This is a great spot for him because the Coyotes are not a deep team – and that includes their farm system. Here is McBain’s scouting profile. He dominated the NCAA this year (his senior year). Now the ‘Yotes just need to sign him, but given the price – they’ve probably already made an informal agreement.

Pittsburgh got Nathan Beaulieu from Winnipeg for nothing. Well, technically they give up a seventh rounder if they go three rounds and Beaulieu plays half of those playoff games. So probably nothing.

Winnipeg has traded Brian Little’s contract to Arizona, along with Nathan Smith (a Hobey Baker finalist!) for a fourth round pick. Frankly, Minnesota did better, as Smith is a prospect with more upside than McBain. Smith’s scouting profile.

Marcus Johansson has been traded by Seattle to Washington. The last time he was in Washington, he set his career high (58 points). But as is often the case – that was a contract year. Now 31, he won’t be touching 45 points again. Unless he pulls a David Perron and decides that in his 30s is the perfect time to break out. Daniel Sprong is part of the package going to Seattle, and is a bit of a dark horse to be another Colin Blackwell-type. But he would need sweet situations with top linemates.

Detroit trades Troy Stecher to Los Angeles for a seventh rounder.

Anton Forsberg has signed a nice extension for three years with Ottawa – contract is similar to Vejmelka’s (below) just under $3M AAV. Matt Murray still has two years left on his deal, but he can’t stay healthy. It will be Murray – Forsberg next year. It will be interesting to see how Filip Gustavsson fits in for 2023-24.

Toronto trades Alex Biega to Nashville for future considerations

Los Angeles trades Brayden Burke to Nashville for Frederic Allard

The Oilers acquire Brett Kulak from Montreal. Montreal gets fancy-stats favorite William Lagesson as part of the return.

The Rangers acquire Justin Braun from Philadelphia for a third-round pick.

Ottawa trades Josh Brown to Boston for Zach Senyshyn and a fifth-round pick. Senyshyn’s scouting profile here.

The Coyotes claim Harri Sateri off of waivers from Toronto. Would love to see them trade him back to the Leafs for Mrazek and a high draft pick. Mrazek cleared waivers.

Derrick Pouliot claimed off of waivers from Vegas by Seattle.

Detroit trades Nick Leddy and Luke Witkowski to St. Louis for Jake Walman, Oskar Sundkvist plus a second rounder.

Zach Sanford traded to Winnipeg from Ottawa for a fifth-round pick.

Los Angeles signs Blake Lizotte to a two-year extension.

The Andrew Cogliano trade to Colorado was already included in the Lehkonen breakdown here.

Washington trades a third-round draft pick to Arizona for Johan Larsson.

Montreal trades No.3 goalie Andrew Hammond to New Jersey for prospect Nate Schnarr.

The Rangers trade defenseman Anthony Bitetto to San Jose for prospect winger Nick Merkley.

The Rangers trade a fourth-round pick to Vancouver for Tyler Motte. Vancouver claimed Brad Richardson off of the waiver wire.

Whoa – the Hurricanes have signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an eight-year contract extension! The AAV is said to be just under $5M AAV.

Ryan Carpenter was traded by Chicago to Calgary for a fifth-round draft pick.

Edmonton acquires Derick Brassard from Philadelphia for a fourth-round draft pick.

Detroit trades Vladislav Namestnikov to Dallas for a fourth-round draft pick.

Goalie Michael McNiven has been traded by Calgary to Ottawa for future considerations.

The Islanders Cal Clutterbuck and Zach Parise have each signed extensions. Lou being loyal.

Arizona trades Riley Nash to Tampa Bay for future considerations.

The Oilers have acquired Derick Brassard from the Flyers. He is having a great year in terms of production, however a ‘great year’ is a 42-point pace. So not so great. And his metrics are terrible. High puck luck with over 12% 5on5 S%, and his expected goals metrics are 45.3% which is about as bad as I’ve seen. He sees tons of PP time but only has two PPPts. This is likely just a depth move for Edmonton, and a cheap one (Philly retains half of his salary).

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*** FULL TRADE BREAKDOWN LIST HERE ***

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And now, the Ramblings:

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Three weeks later than usual, but it's finally here – Deadline Day! Ten days later are due to the season beginning later. The rest of the delay was from the Olympic Break that never happened (and was instead used for COVID rescheduling). It's here, and teams have already been proactive. The three biggest Cup favorites – Florida, Tampa Bay and Colorado – have been proactive. I can see them standing pat Monday, or at the most just tweaking some depth. The Avalanche will have added the top defenseman available in Josh Manson. I don't think another team can beat that. But the Panthers did well too – Claude Giroux and Ben Chiarot really fills in any gaps. Those are the two powerhouses and neither team 'needed' to do anything because they were so great. But they did – and did they ever.

You also can't count out two-time champion Tampa Bay. That was some shifty deal-making on Friday, grabbing a player who wasn't even on the block. Brandon Hagel was (I believe) in Chicago's long-term plans and not on the block. I think, even though his numbers were padded per the luck metrics (high S% and 5on5 S%), he was a player always over-achieving and was on the rise. I identified him last year as a one of those players who could exceed his expected 'upside'. Reminds me of Patrick Sharp that way. I remember Sharp was a guy who had been expected to be a third-liner and occasional second liner. He ended up being a first-line star. Hagel has a Blake Coleman floor…but I think first-line upside. The end result will probably lie somewhere in the middle, and a lot will depend on what happens to Tampa's forwards in the coming two or three years (i.e. injuries, trades, signings, free agent losses, etc.).

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I bounced this idea around on here a couple of times, and would still like to see it as it will address Toronto's main weakness: acquire Semyon Varlamov. While Ilya Lyubushkin is a great stay-at-home option who brings size, toughness at the No.5 spot, and Mark Giordano brings incredible veteran leadership – it does not solve the goaltending issue. They will not make Jack Campbell better. Harri Sateri is a great wildcard signing, but to me you keep him as a No.3. Giordano, if he was added as a third-pairing guy, makes the Leafs very solid back there. He is a shadow of what he once was and can't handle the toughest assignments. But it would be tough to beat that kind of leadership and experience. But the job is only half done, unless they acquire a trustworthy goaltender. Varlamov is perfect because he can come in as a backup to Campbell – and a safety measure.

Varlamov's numbers are mediocre this season, but he has only played every second game (if that) and since December 5 he has been very solid:

5-8-2, 2.60 GAA, 0.923 SV%, +5.945 GSAA, 60% QS

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Everything I said above – ditto for Edmonton. But why have the Oilers not made a move to shore up the defense the way Toronto did? Just…odd. Careless, really.

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With an assist Sunday, Jacob Trouba boasts eight points in his last 10 games. Of his 32 points this season, 27 were at even strength (one short-handed). The 28-year-old has his third-best points-per-game average of his career.

Alexandar Georgiev had been having a terrible time of things since around mid-January, so he really needed that huge game. A 44-save shutout and his first Quality Start since January 10, going back eight games. His season SV% is still below 0.900.

After his two-point game a few nights ago, Carolina rookie Seth Jarvis was moved to the Sebastian AhoTeuvo Teravainen line. Jarvis saw just over 18 minutes of ice time, which was the second highest of the season for him. Definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Tony DeAngelo was back in the lineup and saw 3:25 of PP time. Interesting that Ethan Bear still saw 2:21 of PPTOI. His PP time really popped when DeAngelo was out, and now that TDA is back I would have expected to see Bear's PPTOI to disappear. Not so. Yet. Bear is still without a PPPt, but did have four points in seven games heading into Sunday.

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Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk were both in the lineup for Chicago on Sunday and Raddysh made an immediate splash with two points. The former OHL powerhouse Erie Otters boasted a massive line back in 2016-17: Alex DeBrincatDylan StromeTaylor Raddysh. I think you know where I'm going with this. But no, the three of them were not reunited. But can it happen? Absolutely it could. But for now, Raddysh lined up with Jonathan Toews and Dominik Kubalik. On Saturday he was with Katchouk and Mackenzie Entwistle – so he's working his way up the depth chart. Looks like they're easing him in. Raddysh tallied two points against Winnipeg Sunday, was on the top PP unit and was out there with the goalie pulled late in the game. So yeah, I think he's going to get plenty of chances to earn a top-six spot early on.

After his four-point effort Sunday, Kyle Connor is up to 21 points in his last 11 games.

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Jonathan Dahlen left San Jose's game Sunday after taking a puck to the mouth.

I was planning to do a blurb about Karel Vejmelka finding his groove, settling in with four consecutive Quality Starts. But then, with five minutes left on Sunday and a 2-1 lead – he gave up two quick goals. That gave him the loss and removed what was going to be another Quality Start. That was Vejmelka's issue throughout the first half: he often held the other team to just a goal, or none and all, before giving up two or three late. Understandable, since he's a rookie and not only new to the NHL but new to North America.

Update: Vejmelka has signed a three-year contract extension worth just under $3M per season. That’s enough to be the likely starter for this team…but not enough to secure the spot against all comers. He still needs to earn his keep.

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See you throughout today as I break down the fantasy impact of all the key trades on this fun, exciting day!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYI Players
23.8 MAXIM TSYPLAKOV BO HORVAT SIMON HOLMSTROM
21.5 JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU ANDERS LEE MATHEW BARZAL
18.4 KYLE PALMIERI BROCK NELSON ANTHONY DUCLAIR

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