Looking Ahead: Verhaege, Barzal, Talbot, Boston’s Schedule, and More
Andrew Santillo
2022-03-25
The trade deadline has come and gone, and this not only affects the NHL landscape but your fantasy team(s) as well. Giroux is in South Beach, the Rangers have two new wingers, Minnesota got stronger in net, and Evgenii Dadonov became a Duck…then a toss-up…then a Golden Knight again. We'll target some potential spots to gain advantage following all this player movement, let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Carter Verhaeghe, C/LW, Florida Panthers (Available in 53% of ESPN leagues, 86% Fantrax, 59% Yahoo) – Okay so Verhaeghe is higher owned over on Fantrax but as far as the other two prominent fantasy platforms are concerned his ownership is just over 50%, and that's interesting. Verhaeghe has been a solid player all season long but the addition of Claude Giroux on his line can seriously boost his offense moving forward.
It was rumored the Panthers were targeting Giroux since what feels like Christmas and last Saturday those rumors finally came to fruition as the Flyers sent Giroux over to Florida. Now I was curious as to how Florida was planning on using Giroux but it appears as though he's going to get first line right wing duties across from our guy Carter Verhaeghe. With that, he will also move back to a wing which I believe will be much better for him at this stage of his career.
Although the new first line of Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Claude Giroux doesn't have any time together yet, the potential is there for offense and I've said it before, potential is tantalizing. Verhaeghe and Barkov together this season have a very large sample of almost 500 minutes staked together and a goals-for percentage of just over 60%. Florida's second line has done a lot of the heavy lifting for this club but I think with a now presumably stronger top line this gives a lower owned Verhaeghe a chance to really benefit. We'll have to see how the power play correlation between the trio is used but for even strength we can only assume Giroux will boost Verhaeghe's value. With six of the next seven games vs clubs under .500, this could be a great spot for Verhaeghe and Florida's new top line to hit the ground running.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Valeri Nichushkin, LW/RW, Colorado Avalanche (Available in 32% of ESPN leagues, 62% Fantrax, 46% Yahoo) – Since Gabriel Landeskog moved down to the Avs second line to then unfortunately be put on the IR, Valeri Nichushkin was put along Colorado's top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. That in and of itself should make Nichushkin a target for fantasy but there's even more to like once we dig in a bit.
I was cautious putting Nichushkin as a building block because I wanted to give it a couple games and make sure he would indeed stay up on Colorado's top line instead of Andre Burakovsky or JT Compher. It looks like this will be a pretty permanent role for him and he has excelled with six points in his last five games on a line that is controlling play with a Corsi-For Percentage of 62.3%. The Avs top line has 23 points in their past five games on all strengths along with 52 shots on goal spread fairly evenly among the trio.
What makes Nichushkin an even better target for fantasy and DFS is that he is fully correlated with MacKinnon and Rantanen on the Avs top power play unit, which is the highest scoring power play in the entire NHL this season. If you have an available roster spot I think this is an easy plug and play option for the remainder of the regular season into fantasy playoffs.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Cam Talbot, G, Minnesota Wild (Owned in 88% of ESPN leagues, 92% of Fantrax, 91% Yahoo) – Around every deadline there's that fantasy goalie that losses value because a club brings in another netminder to see bulk of play towards and into playoffs. This season, that goaltender is Cam Talbot.
Minnesota is in their window for a deep Cup run following an offseason where the club decided to buyout Zach Parise and Ryan Suter along with the signing of Kirill Kaprizov. On Tuesday the Wild continued adding on and improving trading for Marc-Andre Fleury and that's problematic for Talbot fantasy owners. Talbot had a miserable month of February with a 3.06 goals-against-per-game mark, along but has improved in March winning his last five contests a while improving his goals against per game down to 2.43. I think the uncertainty in net was a factor that ultimately led to the decision to trade for Fleury, and that's going to lead to less starts in net for Talbot.
On paper, the numbers are similar between the two goaltenders, Talbot has a -1.31 goals saved above average, Fleury is at -1.31. Talbot's high danger save percentage sits at 8.09, Fleury 8.17. The big difference here is the shots against and that has everything to do with Fleury coming over from Chicago. In the 45 starts for Fleury he has seen 1,114 shots on goal (9th most in the league), while Talbot has 39 starts and has seen 896 (22nd most). Fleury kept Chicago competitive in more games than they realistically had a chance of winning and I think that combined with his final year on his contract made him a viable trade target.
Now, I think it is very likely that Fleury will see the bulk of starts for Minnesota moving forward. For Talbot owners I think it's reasonable to hold on to him, especially in leagues where you are able to roster or start more than one goaltender. Minnesota still has a back-to-back this upcoming weekend along with two back-to-backs on their schedule at the back end of April. There is also a stretch next month where the Wild will play six games in ten days. I could see a scenario playing out where Fleury gets the majority of the starts while Talbot plays when the schedule is more condensed along with likely being the Sunday stater.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders (Owned in 85% of ESPN leagues, 90% of Fantrax, 71% Yahoo) – Alright Barzal, we need to talk. The Isles made the decision to sign you to a three-year deal and I was hoping during the Tampa Bay series last playoffs that you would just take over. I was worried with what I saw and this season things have been lackluster.
In the last 30 days Barzal has just seven points, even with missing time with a lower-body injury the twenty-four-year-old centre has been underwhelming. Barzal has the lowest five on five shooting percentage of his career at 7.9 along with the lowest points per 60 minutes at 2.5. The issue here too is that last week he was taken off of top line center for the Isles and has bounced around the second and third lines. That's good and bad, good because he could see some depth matchups at times and bad because, well, Barzal is skating down which in turn effects ice time. In the past week Barzal's average time on ice has dropped a full minute from his average at 18:13 down to 17:06.
If you're a Barzal fantasy owner, you could just ride out rostering him for the next two or three weeks before playoffs start but I think if there's a player you're watching on waivers this could be a spot to make a change. Moving forward into next season Barzal may just be a player to sit back and take later in your draft, in hopes for a bounce back without using a high draft pick on him. For those in keeper leagues with Barzal he is still a younger player, but this may be a situation where moving a player a year early is better than two years too late.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from March 25th to April 6th
Florida – I'm going to be honest with you guys, I kind of just always love the Panthers. Upcoming there's a lot to love here, next week the Panthers will see Montreal and Chicago at home followed by a weekend series on the road vs New Jersey and Buffalo. All clubs well under the .500 mark for a very high scoring Florida club.
Boston – The B's have a busy schedule coming up and that's good news for a higher owned club in both fantasy and DFS. Lots to like here, since the All-Star break the B's are second in goals for percentage and second in the league in goals allowed.
Minnesota – The Wild start a four-game homestand this weekend and that's excellent news for a club is 20-7-1 at home while 17-13-3 away from St.Paul. I like the Wild's top six here upcoming.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Nashville – It's not the competition that's taking me off of Nashville with meetings with Ottawa and Buffalo on the docket for next week, it's just the amount of games that they'll play. Nashville has been a pleasant surprise this season but the lack of games upcoming is taking me off of them for now.
Washington – What was said about the Preds is also true for Washington. The Caps will play Monday next week at home vs Carolina and not have another game until Sunday at home vs Minnesota. Tough matchups along with a light schedule makes the Caps a Leave Em for me right now.
Pittsburgh – The Pens don't grade out particularly well upcoming and that's has everything to do with their upcoming schedule. In the next week they'll see the Rangers twice along with road games in Minnesota and Colorado. I'm higher on this Pitt club than most and think they'll be able to walk away from those upcoming games with some points, but they are tougher matchups and that's what's making me avoid them for now.
Friday, March 25th to Thursday, March 31st, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.46 – Away BUF TOR – Home CBJ ARI |
Florida 4.41 – Away OTT TOR – Home MTL CHI |
Minnesota 4.31 – Home CBJ COL PHI PIT |
Calgary 4.20 – Home ARI EDM COL LAK |
NY Rangers 4.16 – Away PIT DET – Home PIT BUF |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.85 – Away NSH – Home FLA |
Vegas 2.25 – Away SEA – Home CHI |
Nashville 2.42 – Home PHI OTT |
Philadelphia 2.57 – Away COL NSH MIN |
Seattle 2.60 – Away LAK LAK – Home VGK |
Friday, March 26th to Thursday, April 1st, 2022 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.96 – Away BOS CBJ NYR – Home TBL CBJ |
Florida 4.41 – Away OTT TOR – Home MTL CHI |
Anaheim 4.33 – Away SJS ARI – Home DAL DAL |
Minnesota 4.31 – Home CBJ COL PHI PIT |
Los Angeles 4.12 – Away EDM CGY – Home SEA SEA |
Steer Clear |
Philadelphia 1.71 – Away NSH MIN |
Washington 2.05 – Home NJD CAR |
Columbus 2.46 – Away MIN NYI – Home NYI |
Ottawa 2.85 – Away NSH DET – Home FLA |
Colorado 2.92 – Away MIN CGY – Home SJS |
Sunday, March 27th to Saturday, April 2nd, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.36 – Away TOR NJD – Home MTL CHI |
Winnipeg 4.25 – Away BUF TOR – Home ARI LAK |
Arizona 4.11 – Away WPG EDM – Home SJS ANA |
NY Islanders 4.10 – Away CBJ NYR – Home TBL CBJ |
Tampa Bay 4.07 – Away NYI – Home CAR CHI MTL |
Steer Clear |
Washington 0.89 – Home CAR |
Ottawa 1.85 – Away NSH DET |
Vancouver 2 – Away STL – Home STL |
Vegas 2.09 – Away SEA SEA |
Columbus 2.46 – Away NYI BOS – Home NYI |
Monday, March 28th to Sunday, April 3rd, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.60 – Away NJD BUF – Home MTL CHI |
Chicago 4.33 – Away FLA TBL – Home BUF ARI |
Arizona 4.30 – Away EDM CHI – Home SJS ANA |
Anaheim 4.29 – Away ARI – Home DAL DAL EDM |
Edmonton 4.21 – Away ANA – Home ARI LAK STL |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.84 – Home CAR MIN |
Nashville 2.35 – Away BUF – Home OTT |
Columbus 2.46 – Away NYI BOS – Home NYI |
Montreal 2.61 – Away FLA CAR TBL |
New Jersey 2.69 – Away BOS – Home FLA NYI |
Tuesday, March 29th to Monday April 4th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.60 – Away NJD BUF – Home MTL CHI |
Boston 4.35 – Away CBJ – Home TOR NJD CBJ |
Tampa Bay 4.31 – Home CAR CHI MTL TOR |
Arizona 4.30 – Away CHI STL – Home SJS ANA |
Anaheim 4.29 – Away ARI – Home DAL DAL EDM |
Steer Clear |
Washington 0.95 – Home MIN |
Vancouver 1.94 – Home STL VGK |
Nashville 2.35 – Away BUF – Home OTT |
Montreal 2.61 – Away FLA CAR TBL |
New Jersey 2.69 – Away BOS – Home FLA NYI |
Wednesday, March 30th to Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.39 – Away NJD BUF – Home CHI TOR |
Boston 4.35 – Away CBJ DET – Home NJD CBJ |
Arizona 4.30 – Away CHI STL – Home SJS ANA |
Detroit 4.24 – Away OTT – Home NYR OTT BOS |
San Jose 4.10 – Away ARI COL – Home DAL EDM |
Steer Clear |
Washington 0.95 – Home MIN |
Vancouver 1.94 – Home STL VGK |
Nashville 2.09 – Away BUF – Home MIN |
Pittsburgh 2.66 – Away MIN COL – Home COL |
Seattle 2.84 – Home VGK VGK DAL |
Thursday, March 31st to Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.41 – Away WSH – Home CHI MTL TOR |
Florida 4.39 – Away NJD BUF – Home CHI TOR |
Boston 4.35 – Away CBJ DET – Home NJD CBJ |
St.Louis 4.22 – Away EDM CGY – Home ARI SEA |
Anaheim 4.19 – Away ARI – Home DAL EDM CGY |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.70 – Away VGK – Home VGK |
Washington 1.94 – Home MIN TBL |
Nashville 2.09 – Away BUF – Home MIN |
Pittsburgh 2.66 – Away MIN COL – Home COL |
Los Angeles 2.70 – Away CGY WPG – Home CGY |