Ramblings – Impact of Hughes/Keller Injuries, Lehner’s Return, and Yandle’s Scratch (Apr 04)

Dobber

2022-04-04

Nazem Kadri is on pace to end the season with 105 points – except he may not play another regular season game this year. This is very significant in terms of his future value in dynasty/keeper leagues. He is an unrestricted free agent certain to cash in come summer. But how much will he cash in as an 83-point player versus the dollar value of being a 105-point player? At 100 points, or even 90 points, his ticket is punched. $9M or more? $10M? NHL general managers would step over their own mother to have a proven 100-point player in their lineup. But now, in terms of optics, Kadri is an 83-point player with his second-best season at 61 points. Does that mean $7.5M or $8M now? The value of the contract is significant because it will dictate how his coach uses him. Whichever of the above numbers he ends up signing for, it will likely have him as a top three paid player on his next team. And that will mean first dibs on linemates, and the go-to guy on the power play. No matter where he ends up, he's a safe bet to reach a point-per-game next season, with the only risk being if he lands with the Islanders or a defense-first team like that.

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Auston Matthews reached 250 career goals on Saturday, in his 397th game. Only seven players have done it faster, with The Great One topping the list at 302 games (Bossy, Lemieux, Hull, Ovechkin, Selanne and Kurri).

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The Panther's line combos with Anton Lundell in the lineup since the Claude Giroux trade:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:2221.4REINHART – MARCHMENT – LUNDELL1019281.811473.3
10:1319.3BARKOV – DUCLAIR – VERHAEGHE20212860.0171160.7
9:3418.0GIROUX – HUBERDEAU – BENNETT1015455.68850.0
7:1313.6THORNTON – LOMBERG – LUOSTARINEN0004180.06275.0

What a solid lineup, and that's with Patric Hornqvist, Noel Acciari and Maxim Mamin scratched or injured.

It looks like Giroux's trial alongside Barkov is over. Duclair and Verhaeghe are back with their familiar linemate, while Giroux is now taking a turn with Huberdeau. Not a bad consolation prize?

With a pair of assists Sunday, Casey Mittelstadt has eight points in his last eight games. He's also getting top PP time (both of his assists were with the man advantage). By the end of the game, Peyton Krebs moved onto Mittelstadt's line in place of Rasmus Asplund.

Olofsson's ice time was down to 11:53 on Sunday, which was a season-low.

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Despite missing 15 games, Josh Norris is already a 30-goal scorer. With the hatty on Sunday, he has 30 in just 52 games. He is 13th in the NHL in goals-per-game average and has 16 points in his last 13 games. With a S% of 22.4%, it's obviously not a sustainable rate. However, last season his S% was 17.7% so he's always going to have a bit of an inflated number here. Just where that settles in, we'll need to wait and see, but I'm not ready to say he'll be a 40-goal guy just yet.

It's interesting to see third-liner Mathieu Joseph (in Tampa Bay) become first-liner Joseph in Ottawa. Joseph is thriving alongside Norris and Brady Tkachuk – and that's an understatement. Seven (!) points in two games for Joseph. If he works out, then that frees up Drake Batherson to play with Alex Formenton (or Shane Pinto) and Tim Stutzle, which offers up a solid second line. Connor Brown on the third line offers solid scoring depth. The situation with Joseph is one to keep an eye on for keeper leagues – his upside is limited, especially compared to the other two guys on his line, but if he stays on it he will definitely reach that upside.

Anton Forsberg, in his last seven starts, has six QS and a 0.930 SV%. He signed a three-year contract extension on March 21 and the timing on his career trajectory couldn't be better. The Sens are about to really take off, and he stands a good chance to their guy when it happens.

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Tough news for Jack Hughes, and owners of Hughes, as he suffered a serious-looking knee injury here (20 second mark):

Word is that Hughes tore his MCL. I think you can expect him to be out for the season. Hughes was on a 94-point full-season pace, and 48 points in his last 36 games.

That probably means that Yegor Sharangovich drops back down to 'minimal fantasy relevant' status. But it also means that Andreas Johnsson could see a bump. If you recall, Johnsson was New Jersey's leading scorer until Hughes returned. After that, Johnsson rarely saw the score sheet. Well, Hughes is gone again. It may not be a terrible hunch to play, grabbing Johnsson again.

I don't think Dougie Hamilton returned to action February 24. Just eight points in 19 games since then, when he had 20 in 30 before that. It was just a broken jaw, but psychologically it might be weighing on him a little, causing some tentativeness. Those in one-year leagues may want to keep that in mind. He has yet to tally a power-play point since his return.

J-G Pageau had himself a four-point game Sunday. He's been playing with Kyle Palmieri and Josh Bailey lately, and that seems to be the magic potion. Pageau has nine ES points with those linemates. That makes up 37.5% of his ES points…yet he's only played 17.2% of his ES shifts with them. I don't often see that kind of discrepancy, so Pageau is a better option than you think.

With Ilya Sorokin out, Cory Schneider had his first start and first win in two years. Interesting, but hardly fantasy-worthy. Although Sorokin's return date is not known, I suspect that Semyon Varlamov will get the next three starts if need be, making it doubtful that the 36-year-old Schneider gets another shot.

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Who knew that his team grabbing Marc-Andre Fleury would turn Cam Talbot into a superstar? Undefeated in regulation since the move, and four out of five Quality Starts. So far, the Wild are rotating the two veterans.

With three more points Sunday, Joel Eriksson Ek has 12 in his last 14. His linemates Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway have eight points each in that span.

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To put Justin Braun into the lineup, the Rangers scratched…Braden Schneider. Granted, he came off a game in which he was minus-3 and an xG% 5v5 of just 34.1. But it was one game. Anyway, Braun was minus-1 against his former team the Flyers on Sunday though his CF% was a solid 75.0. I suspect that Braun heads into the playoffs as the No.7 defenseman – which is an extra.

Since joining the Rangers, Andrew Copp has eight points in seven games playing with a pretty good player in Artemi Panarin.

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Keith Yandle – a healthy scratch for back-to-back games now. You knew it was coming. But with him in the press box, we're seeing Cam York become 'the man' on the blue line running the power play. He has four points in seven games, though yet to post a PP point. The organization is pushing him to see if he is ready for the job next year, or if they need to look to free agency for the short term.

Only getting secondary PP time? Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim.

Since the trade deadline, Kevin Hayes leads the Flyers in scoring with eight points in seven games. Next is Joel Farabee at six, followed by Travis Konecny and James van Riemsdyk with five each.

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That Clayton Keller injury is just brutal news, given the season he was having. Out until likely September with a fractured leg that required surgery, Keller had been on pace for 77 points. But really he had 57 points in his last 51 games – he was producing at a 90-point pace.

The ripple effect there is Nick Schmaltz who had finally found his mojo after needing a few weeks to get going after his own injury. Now Schmaltz is playing with Travis Boyd and Matias Maccelli, which is a hefty downgrade.

Despite the offense being crippled, the Coyotes won and Karel Vejmelka was a big part of that. The 25-year-old 6-4 rookie started his eighth consecutive game, picking up his third Quality Start in that span.

Chicago's Dylan Strome has 22 points in his last 16 games. Kudos to you if you were able to get in on that early and buy low, because he was having a horrible season on the heels of an equally horrible 2020-21. Continued production like this might price himself out of Chicago in the summer, as Strome's contract is up and he'll be an RFA.

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In his first game since March 8, Robin Lehner returned to post a Quality Start on Sunday. In his absence, Logan Thompson was phenomenal. Since March 17, Thompson was 6-2-0, 2.13 GAA, 0.934 SV%, +5.784 GSAA and 75% QS. I think he's won the backup job for Vegas next year.

Jonathan Marchessault has been on a crazy run with another two points on Sunday it gives him 10 points in five games. He also has 23 in his last 19. He's now going to finish with the second best season of his career, and continued production like this would see him take a run at his career best (75 points).

Scary moment for Brock Boeser, who left the game after taking a missed hit by Elias Pettersson that seemed to bend his arm weird. He did return for the next period.

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I'm thinking that Tyson Barrie just needed Brett Kulak as his defense partner in order to get going. Darnell Nurse clicked reasonably well with him, but Kris Russell was an anchor (as always). Barrie picked up three points on Sunday, as did Kulak, and Barrie has five points in his last four games. He's also a plus-7 in that span.

Connor McDavid doing Connor McDavid things – 26 points in his last 13 games. He scored his 40th on Sunday and added two assists.

Zach Aston-Reese has points in two straight, but his fantasy relevance lies in his Hits. He already has a career high right now with 205 Hits on the season (13th in the NHL) and averages 3.53 per game. He's 12th in the league in Hits/60 minutes of ice time with 16.3.

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We have launched our new DFS subscription. These tools have a very solid track record. And for the late portion of the season and playoffs, we are offering $20 off. Avid DFS players will more than make this money back over the remainder of the season I'm sure. Right now it is for Draft Kings, but we will have other DFS tools available over time. Yahoo daily fantasy tools are being tested as we speak.

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See you next Monday.

3 Comments

  1. Antti 2022-04-04 at 08:01

    What is the source for Hughes` torn MCL? I only found one troll account (Pat Myaz) talking about it on Twitter.

  2. Striker 2022-04-04 at 15:37

    I went & grabbed Strome for a 2nd round pick in my deep H2H league on Feb. 13. Opens a ton of trade options for me before our protected rosters are due in late Sept. Have only dressed him once as I also own Point, Kadri, Nelson, Couture & just added Mittelstadt. I’m actually going to roll the dice in our semi-finals starting today and dress Mittelstadt with 4 games over Couture with 3. Couture has been playing with Gregor and Balcers, Hertl with Meier and Barabanov. The pool is all offensive categories so worth the risk.

    • Striker 2022-04-04 at 15:38

      Losing Kadri sucks but what can you do.

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