Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the trade deadline having come and gone and most fantasy playoffs underway, the temptation is to latch onto season-long totals when assessing players. But it's now more important than ever to know those for whom appearances may be deceiving, whether it's so you can try and acquire them at less than actual value, or to sell high before what could be a late season slow down. With all that in mind, the three players coming under scrutiny this week are Adam Fox, Nicolaj Ehlers, and Fox's teammate Mika Zibanejad. Do you have what it takes to sniff out who's too hot, too cold, and just right? Give it a shot and then see if you nailed all three. Stats are current for games played through – no fooling – April 1st.

Adam Fox (66 games, 10G, 56A, 125 SOG, 31 PPPts, 24:02 TOI, 2:56 PP, 70.5% PP%)

Originally drafted in the third round by Calgary, many forget that New York is Fox's third organization, having been traded to Carolina in the Dougie Hamilton deal and then, as Fox was starring for Harvard, flipped to the Rangers in Spring 2019 for what ultimately became two second round picks. The Rangers plopped Fox directly in the NHL for 2019-20 and he shined to the tune of 42 points in 70 games despite Tony DeAngelo's superb season. Once DeAngelo was removed from the equation though, Fox exploded, posting 47 points in 55 games last season, with 32 of those points coming in his final 29 games. For 2021-22, Fox hasn't eased off the gas pedal, as he's on pace to meet or exceed the point per game mark. Has he only begun to scratch the surface? Or can we at least look to him for this type of output for the future? Neither, as signs point to Fox unsustainably overachieving.

The biggest factor in Fox's scoring being bloated is his SOG rate, which, as with his other seasons, is below two per game. If that sounds low for a rearguard as productive as Fox, that's because it is. Not just low, but quite low. Looking at just defensemen over the last 25 seasons, a total of 41 scored at a 0.85 points per game rate in 40+ games, translating to a 70-point full season scoring pace. Of them, just two averaged less than 2.1 SOG per game; and one of those two was Fox himself last season, the other being a 35-year-old Sergei Zubov. More typical were d-men who shot a ton, as just under half (19 of 41) averaged three SOG or more when doing so. Of the four who had point per game seasons, as Fox is on pace for thus far, their average SOG rate was 3.18. Yes, Fox doing this two seasons in a row does make it less glaring; however, you can't argue with data like this, which suggests that a defenseman who's as selective of a shooter as Fox should not be scoring at anywhere near the rate he is.

Why, then, is Fox's scoring rate so high? For starters, his IPPs, which, at 62.3% overall and 75.6% on the PP are more typical of a scoring forward. For a defenseman, they're sky high. In fact, they're in line with Roman Josi's, which we can agree aren't representative of what Josi truly is. Let's look at Cale Makar for comparison, as Makar, like Fox, is a young d-man on the rise. Unlike Josi and Fox, Makar has already posted a point per game season in his career. Makar's IPPs this season? Try 54.3% overall and 60.4% on the PP. Wouldn't it be more reassuring to see Fox's IPPs resemble those of Makar, not Josi? I'd sure say so.

Let's focus more on the power play. As I write this, Fox is tied for first overall in rearguard PPPts despite having taken the ice for only the 13th most PP minutes and ranking just 21st in PPSOG. Moreover, he has zero PPGs, and only two other rearguards – Quinn Hughes and Seth Jones – have even a third as many PPPts as Fox despite no PP markers. Also, for 2021-22 the Rangers are clicking on the PP at the second highest rate in the NHL, this after finishing 13th last season when Fox broke out. When assessed on top of Fox's high PP IPP, a picture is painted of Fox having lucked into more PPPts than he should've received.

Let's shift the focus back to Hughes, as he provides an interesting basis for comparison. When Hughes scored at 60 and 64 point paces in his most recent seasons, his SOG rate – like that of Fox – was just below two per game. This season Hughes has inched upward so as to be right at two SOG per contest, yet still he's only scoring at a 67-point scoring rate. Let's also not look past the fact that Hughes sees 30 seconds more PP time per game than Fox.

Why then, should Fox be doing better than Hughes, as he is by quite a wide margin? The answer is simple – he shouldn't, as other than an edge in PP conversion percentage, which should be compensated for via Hughes' added PP time, the Rangers and Canucks have almost identical goal totals. Hughes also takes the ice for not just 30 seconds more on the man advantage per game, but also two minutes more per contest of non-SH ice time, plus has a slightly higher OZ%.

It's not all "bad" news regarding Fox though, as his OZ% being 55.2% indicates that he's not being too sheltered, plus his secondary assists percentage is 42.9%, which, if anything, is a bit low for a rearguard. He also won't technically hit his 200-game breakout threshold until next season.

There's no question Fox is among the group of young defensemen poised to be fantasy forces for the next decade. And I'm not here to suggest his stats are going to crater, as if anything his OZ% and secondary assist % leave room for him to perhaps improve, plus he's not going to reach his breakout threshold until next season. Still, we can't look past his low SOG total, sky high IPPs, and too favorable PP production. We need look no further than Quinn Hughes to see how Fox should be producing were it not for unsustainable good luck. But it's the low SOG total that's the true elephant in the room; and until/unless Fox starts shooting a whole lot more, he should be regarded as a having a realistic 65- to 70-point range, which, accordingly, means he's been far TOO HOT for 2021-22 and gets a rating of 9.5.

Nikolaj Ehlers (49 games, 21G, 19A, 192 SOG, 6 PPPts, 18:09 TOI, 2:05 PP, 40.6% PP%)

In the NHL for good just a season after being selected ninth overall, Ehlers produced at a solid 43-point pace in his rookie campaign. His overall rate disguised how well he was playing as the season ended though, with 22 points in his final 27 contests. Ehlers proceeded to score at a 60- to 67-point pace in three of the next four seasons, establishing himself in the process as a reliable producer but someone poolies weren't sure could get the deployment needed to truly shine, that is until he posted 46 points in 47 games in 2020-21. This season he's back scoring in his usual 60s. Was 2020-21 a mirage, or does Ehlers in fact have more in him than he's shown in other prior seasons and thus far for 2021-22? Although Ehlers is still not being gifted the best minutes on a regular basis, signs point to him being able to produce at or perhaps even slightly above what we saw last season.

What jumps out looking at Ehlers' numbers this season is his ice time, which is easily a career best yet still not so high as to be unable to rise further. What's interesting though is Ehlers easily saw the most minutes this season in Q1, when his production rate was worst. If we remove Q1 from the equation, he's essentially a point per game player, just like last season. But he still likely needs even more ice time to improve, as looking at the past ten seasons there were 176 instances of forwards who scored a point per game or better in 30+ games, and just six averaged less ice time than what Ehlers is for 2021-22.

When discussing Ehlers, his inability to penetrate PP1 is at the forefront of the conversation. Yet slowly but surely his percentage of PP time is creeping upward, from a low of 26.7% of his team's PP time in his outlying 49-point pace 2018-19 campaign, to 28.5%, then to 34.1%, and this season at 40.6%. One issue though is with the trade deadline departure of Andrew Copp, Winnipeg's second unit is less potent, consisting of Ehlers plus a past his prime Paul Stastny and no one else of significant talent. Last season Ehlers had Copp and Pierre-Luc Dubois on the second unit, plus Mathieu Perreault, who, although never a great success in the NHL, had fared well with the man advantage.

The drop in talent surrounding him on PP2 must be the reason Ehlers' PP scoring rate has plunged, right? Not so fast. Last season he sported an 86.7% IPP on the PP, which seems high until you see that it was 83.3% the prior season and twice before had been 77.8%+. Yet this season, despite Ehlers easily being the best player on the second unit, his PP IPP is only 60.0%. If anything it should be as high or higher, as the best players on the ice during the man advantage tend to figure in PP scoring at the highest percentages. Yet now as the players around him are arguably the weakest, his IPP on the PP has dropped by quite a bit. One has to expect he'll get back on track, and, with that, his scoring rate on the PP will rise over the remainder of the season.

What is encouraging, however, is Ehlers' SOG rate, which is by far the highest of his career and puts him just outside the top five in the entire NHL in SOG/60, with those ahead of him, namely Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Timo Meier, Nathan MacKinnon, and Patrice Bergeron, all having one or more season of 100+ point production to their credit, or, in the case of Meier, being on the verge of a career best above a point per game. So that bodes well for Ehlers to rise back to the 80+ point rate we saw from him last season even if somehow his PPPts lag behind what they were and his ice time doesn't climb higher.

Going back to IPPs, Ehlers had made a career out of consistently high IPPs not just with the man advantage but overall, with his rates in the past three seasons being 82.1%, 90.6%, and 78.7%. What's his number this season? Still very encouraging at 71.4%, but clearly below what we've already seen him produce several times. His prior overall IPPs compared to his lower number this season, combined with his far lower than usual PP IPP, suggest Ehlers can, and should, be scoring at a much higher rate.

Lest anyone think that Ehlers' 2020-21 output was an outlier, the data suggests otherwise. He's a player whose 2021-22 IPPs are below his usual top tier rates, and he's getting more ice time and also shooting the puck at a rate well above his prior best. Even if we resign ourselves to him being stuck on PP2 and his ice time not allowing him to truly reach his full potential he's TOO COLD for 2021-22, as he should at an 80- to 85-point scoring rate which, incidentally, he's right at if we subtract the first quarter of the season. As such, he gets a rating of 1.75.

Mika Zibanejad (69 games, 26G, 44A, 191 SOG, 16 PPPts, 19:39 TOI, 2:59 PP, 71.6% PP%)

Grabbed sixth overall by Ottawa over a decade ago, Zibs landed directly in the NHL and saw his production rate inch upward to cross the 50-point threshold by his last season with the Sens in 2015-16. In the Big-Apple it was initially more of the same, with Zibanejad failing to take his game to the next level. In 2018-19 he crossed the 20:00 per game threshold and responded with 74 points. Still, no one could've imagined what he'd do in 2019-20, when he exploded for 75 points in only 57 games. Rather than build on, or at least sustain that rate, he dipped back to a 73 point pace in 2020-21, although he did finish with 39 points in 30 games which gave poolies hope he'd bounce back once he was able to play a full season. Yet here we are nearly though 2021-22 and Zibs is producing just at a point per game level. Who's the real Zibanejad? Seemingly the one we're seeing now.

Before we look at what Zibs has done lately, let's dissect his 2019-20 output. For one, he had 41 goals in 57 games, shooting, in the process, 19.7%, which was far and away the best rate in his career. In fact, prior to that season he'd shot 11.6%, meaning that had he shot at that same rate in 2019-20, his goal total would've shrank by 17. Although some of the lost goals might have been repackaged as assists, if none were then Zibs' scoring rate for the 2019-20 campaign would've been 58 points in 57 games, or roughly a point per game. While he has shown in his two subsequent seasons that he can shoot at a higher rate than his prior average, as he's been at 13.6-14%, it nevertheless doesn't compensate for the far higher than normal rate in what just happened to be his outlier scoring season.

Sticking with 2019-20, it wasn't just Zibs' SH% that was a career best, his IPPs – both on the PP and overall – marked career highs, at, respectively, 84.4% and 80.6%. This from a player who had an overall IPP between 64.4% and 67.6% in five of his other most recent seasons, including 2021-22, with it being slightly higher (75.5%) and slightly lower (58.7%) in those other two seasons. As for his IPP on the PP, it'd been trending upward, yet this season and 2020-21 mark the two campaigns in which he's sported his lowest PP IPPs since becoming a full time NHLer, even as his percentage of PP minutes are on a par with what they were in 2019-20. This adds further fuel to the fire that Zibs is not the player we saw in 2019-20, nor should we hold out hope that, at 28 years old and with a SOG rate on the decline for the second straight season to now his lowest since his first campaign in the Big Apple, he will find a way to duplicate what we saw in 2019-20.

Now that we know what Zibs isn't, what is he? Is he the 70- to 75-point player whom we saw in the seasons sandwiching 2019-20, or instead a point per gamer as he's been in 2021-22? Going back to the Ranger PP, which, as noted above when discussing Fox, is the league's second best, Zibanejad has still produced well with the man advantage despite his low – for him – PP IPP. Even if the team cools in that area, one would presume that Zibs will once again be able to grab a higher share of points on the PP, making it a wash.

Yes, his SOG rate this season is lower; but selective shooting is leading to his SH% being above his career average for the second straight season. And it's not like his SOG rate has fallen off a cliff, as it still sits just below three per game, which is strong for a center. This also marks the third straight seasons of Zibs scoring double digit PPGs, with no other pure center having also done so in all five seasons, and the likes of Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl being the only pivots who did so four times. That is a sign of PP prowess and, with that, Zibs being able to keep producing well.

What do other metrics tell us? His secondary assist rate – at 34.1% – is actually lower than it was in his explosive 2019-20 campaign but similar to his step back 2020-21 season, so that doesn't point us in any direction. His OZ% is starting to tick downward though, and, at 47.7%, would be the second lowest of his career, making it challenging to score in droves. On the plus side, Zibs is starting to see a reduction in how much shorthanded time he sees, although he still does get trotted out there regularly for the PK.

Looking at the cumulative numbers, the ironclad conclusion that can be drawn is Zibanejad will not be producing another season like he did in 2019-20, when the stars aligned for him to go nuts. All the other data seems to point in enough directions as to suggest that what we are seeing from him in 2021-22 might just be his new normal, as he's shooting less but also more accurately, and continuing to pile on PPGs even as his PP IPP is low. Yet his overall IPP is right in his usual wheelhouse, as is his secondary assist rate. While this would be the only time in his career that Zibanejad scored right at a point per game rate, it seems to be where he should be and what we ought to come to expect from him until he starts to decline in his 30s. As such, his 2021-22 has been JUST RIGHT and gets a rating of 4.75, to suggest he might be closer to an 85-point player than an 80 point guy.

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Questions for Mailbag 

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