Ramblings: Johnson, Power, and Beniers Set to Debut; Updates on Stone, Couturier, Doughty, and Kadri – April 12
Michael Clifford
2022-04-12
This past week have seen a lot of big-name prospect signings as all of Kent Johnson, Matty Beniers, and Owen Power signed following the end of Michigan's season. It seems as if all three could make their debuts this week for Columbus, Seattle, and Buffalo, respectively. They are all prospects that we are high on for various reasons, so let's talk about them.
Johnson
His Dobber Prospects profile is here.
The 19-year-old is generally known more for his playmaking than his scoring. That isn't an issue for now, as we have seen playmaking centres turn into dual threats; Elias Lindholm and Mark Scheifele come to mind. Not comparing him directly to them, I'm just saying that Johnson is far from a finished product at the moment.
The British Columbia native should have lots of opportunities for a prime role with the Jackets, too. At least for this year. Cole Sillinger and Jack Roslovic have far from locks on top-6 roles, and it doesn't look as if Boone Jenner is coming back anytime soon. It's doubtful he gets 19 minutes a night, but starting low and ending up around 16 minutes a night within a few games seems at least a possibility.
Where things get complicated is heading into next season. Assuming Jenner is healthy, they could roll Jenner-Sillinger as their 1-2 down the middle, leaving Johnson as a 3C. That wouldn't be very good for his fantasy value. Perhaps he and Sillinger switch roles, and that would change the equation. What does seem likely is this will be a true meritocratic situation because Johnson/SIllinger/Roslovic are all expected to be part of the future. That leaves Jenner as the top-line pivot and the other three fighting for two roles.
As I've said repeatedly in prior columns, I am not a prospect guy. I rely on the observations of people I trust to largely for my opinion on any prospect. People that I read – here, The Athletic, Elite Prospects – all appear to have the outlook that if it all comes together for Johnson, he's a future superstar. Those are the types of players I target in fantasy because I believe in players being motivated to get better, given the financial upside of being a superstar, even in the NHL.
Just FYI: he was skating as a winger on a line with Justin Danforth and Oliver Bjorkstrand on Monday. He has played both the wing and center at various levels, so where they want to put him long-term is uncertain. Just something to keep an eye on, but if he were to stay on left wing, it could go a long way to ensuring top-6 minutes next season.
Beniers
His Dobber Prospects profile is here.
Here we have a guy who could have a rocket strapped to his back when he hits the lineup. Yanni Gourde is a guy who gets a lot of minutes, but there's nothing else for centre depth in Seattle, especially with Jared McCann being moved to the wing. Alex Wennberg, Victor Rask, whomever else, none of them are a real threat to Beniers and his ice time as long as he plays well. He really could step into a 2C role right away and keep that going into next year.
Beniers could really bring an element the teams desperately needs: goal scoring. Only Jared McCann has cracked the 20-goal mark for the team this year, and no one has reached 45 points. There are 10 games left in the highest-scoring season in 25 years and this team probably won't have a 50-point player and may only have one 20-goal scorer. It's wild.
What, exactly, Beniers's role looks like with Seattle remains to be seen. But he played in all situations for Michigan and that could lead to a lot of ice time, quickly, for Beniers. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic thinks he'll be a great play-driver, and when that's added to his new goal scoring dimension, well, we could have a very special player on our hands.
Our biggest issue here is surrounding him with offensive talent. The Kraken have a long way to go before they have even an average offensive team, and that could keep his production modest early in his career, even for a rookie/sophomore. Just give him time, because it may not be long before he's their best player.
The team doesn't seem to be easing him in, as he was on the top line in practice on Monday:
Seems like a good indication of how they want to use him next year.
Power
His Dobber Prospects profile is here.
This is the guy, of the three mentioned, that I'm least excited about, fantasy-wise. The biggest issue is Rasmus Dahlin's presence on the blue line. He has the inside track for top power-play minutes, and will for a while. Maybe Power can take over the role a few years from now, but it's hard to see him taking minutes away anytime soon. No top PP minutes on a team that is still turning the ship around means the point-production upside is limited. It isn't as if he's stepping onto a Florida or Colorado roster; he's stepping onto a roster that is bottom-10 in the league in scoring. Even a big improvement this year gets them to the middle of the league, and go look how many non-top-PP defencemen from mid-pack scoring teams like Winnipeg, New Jersey, or Dallas are having great years. There are a handful that pace out to around 40 points/82 games, and they are established players like Jacob Trouba, Dougie Hamilton, or Miro Heiskanen. Expecting that, immediately, from Power, even if the team does get better offensively, is asking a lot.
Not that I'm comparing him to Aaron Ebklad – Ekblad is a true top defenseman in the league these days – but I wonder if Power's fantasy production route takes kind of the same detour here. Ekblad had 39 points in his rookie year – a great season – but he also failed to reach the 40-point mark in his first five years. Brian Campbell and Keith Yandle took a lot of PP minutes early in his career, and then he eventually took over the role as the team improved at every position. Now, he's averaged 60 points/82 games over the last three years. Could we see a similar path from Power? It wouldn't shock me.
It could be an instance where Power has a much bigger impact for the Sabres than he does for fantasy owners, at least early in his career. He does seem every bit the top-pair defenseman they want him to be, but that doesn't guarantee fantasy greatness. At least, not yet.
*
The Kings provided a big update on their usual top blue liner:
The team is still in the thick of a playoff race and have more games played than the competition. Not having Doughty could be tough once they get (if they get) in the postseason, but they’ve been playing for a long time without him as it is.
*
An update on Mark Stone:
With Max Pacioretty having just returned, this team is starting to get to full strength at just the right time. They have 10 games left, one fewer than the teams they're chasing in the playoff race, but they're getting the full(ish) lineup back. How is this going to work, cap-wise? Well, that's for the team to figure out.
*
Sean Couturier was seen skating again:
A reminder that Couturier's new contract starts in 2022-23, so getting him healthy is paramount to the team. Getting a healthy Couturier and Ryan Ellis in the lineup next year will make this roster a lot more competitive.
And, speaking of the Flyers' future, Bobby Brink was at practice and on the top PP unit for them on Monday.
*
Good news for Colorado fans and Nazem Kadri fantasy owners:
The Avs are starting to get healthy just at the right time. They just need to get some good news about Gabriel Landeskog and they could really start rolling.
*
There has been a lot of talk this year about the big jump in goal scoring, and there's plenty of justification for that talk. Hockey Reference, going into Monday night, has teams averaging 3.12 goals per game. That is the highest mark since 1995-96, giving us the highest scoring season in 25 years. Most teams still have around 10 or so games left, so we'll see where things end up when the year is done, but this looks to be campaign with the most goals in the cap era, at the least.
What is curious to me isn't the jump in scoring. At least, not in isolation. What is interesting to me is that the jump in scoring came in the second half of the season. In fact, up until Christmas, teams were averaging about 2.91 goals per 60 minutes. (It isn't quite the same as per-game numbers, because of overtime considerations, but I prefer using minutes rather than games for that reason.) For reference, here are first-half scoring rates per 60 minutes since 2017-18, with the first half being defined as up until the Christmas break (excluding the 2021 COVID season):
| Season | Scoring per 60 |
| 2017-18 | 2.88 |
| 2018-19 | 3.00 |
| 2019-20 | 2.96 |
| 2021-22 | 2.91 |
Realistically, the first half of the season was very much in line with what we had seen in recent years. Which means we have seen a massive jump in scoring in the second half of the year. Let's look how that compares with those same seasons listed above:
| Season | Scoring | Change From First Half |
| 2017-18 | 2.91 | + 0.03 |
| 2018-19 | 2.91 | – 0.09 |
| 2019-20 | 2.92 | – 0.04 |
| 2021-22 | 3.14 | + 0.23 |
Power-play goal scoring did rise but it's not that simple. At 5v4, which is where the vast majority of PP time comes from, the goals/60 were virtually unchanged at 7.27/60 in the first half and 7.28 in the second half. There was a rise in other PP states (5v3, 4v3 etc) but those are also much smaller samples, and we're talking small samples as it is. All this is to say, there wasn't a real change in 5v4 scoring, which means the rise in scoring came elsewhere.
The question then turns to even-strength scoring. If it's not the power play that is largely causing the goal jump, then it is even-strength play. In fact, goals/60 at even strength in the first half of the season was 2.67 and that rose to 2.92 in the second half. That is a jump of a quarter-goal per 60 minutes, and that's a lot. What's changed? Is it simply goaltending? New coaching strategies that focus on shot quality? Players getting worn down after a rough November/December? Players being rested following the extended holiday break? Like most things, it's probably not any one explanation, but some amalgamation of a bunch of them.
My first instinct was that it had something to do with the Eastern Conference. The playoff teams had it wrapped up basically by Christmas, leaving half the East with no stakes for 50 games or more. Is it a coincidence that the five teams allowing the most goals per 60 since Christmas are all non-playoff teams from the East? As in, no Arizona, or Anaheim, or Seattle. Maybe it's a coincidence. Maybe New Jersey shouldn't have played half the season with AHL goalies, either, but here we are.
Whatever it is, it'll be interesting to see if this lasts into 2022-23. Anyone have any theories as to why we have a big jump in scoring this year, given that it's not driven by power plays? Let us know.
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