The Journey: Early Sleepers for 2022-23 (Hischier, Romanov, Lehkonen)
Ben Gehrels
2022-04-16
Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll take a closer look at three players who may be undervalued heading into next year's drafts.
How high is Nico Hischier going to go in drafts next year? His trade value has been relatively low for a while now as a former first overall pick who looked to be developing into neither a bust nor a star. He is almost 100 games past his 200-game Breakout Threshold, nearing the end of his fifth season in the league, and had never broken 60 points in a year. It'll be interesting to see whether the majority of fantasy managers realize that he's a point-per-game (ppg) player now. Here are his ppg numbers over the four quarters of this year: 0.63, 0.75, 1.0, 1.3. That's a player whose trajectory is headed straight up.
Luckily for Devils fans, Hischier's breakout seems to be coinciding perfectly with that of rising superstar Jack Hughes, who finally pushed past the ppg mark himself this year. Hischier hasn't simply been riding his dynamic teammate's coattails either. Although the two line up together on the power play, Hischer has played most of his five-on-five shifts alongside Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha, and Tomas Tatar. Since Hughes went down with an injury on April 3rd, Hischier has scored eight points in five games.
Does the average fantasy player consider Hischier (2.8 points/60) roughly as valuable as stars like Alex DeBrincat (2.8), Brayden Point (2.8), and Elias Pettersson (2.7)? I doubt it, and that means there might be a buy-low opportunity here. Treat him as a 75+ point player with strong faceoff totals and decent hits moving forward but keep in mind that he doesn't shoot a lot (2.15 shots/game) and his power play totals (0.18/game) are lower than we'd like to see from a high-end star. But he's driving play well against high-quality competition and putting this many points on the board without the benefit of the constant offensive zone starts that Hughes gets (46% to 62%).
This guy is for real. Check out these two recent clips of him in action. The first one gives me Sidney Crosby vibes and the second one shows off his unreal hand-eye coordination: he settles down a massive saucer pass while entering the opposing zone at top speed, dekes a defender, then sends a perfect pass across the crease to his open teammate. Hischier is consistently making eye-popping plays like these recently.
Another interesting player in fantasy to watch heading into next year is Alexander Romanov. I recently took part in a draft for a new dynasty league (strange timing for that, I know) and Romanov's value was a bit of a hot topic. It's a multi-cat league that tracks banger stats like PIMs, Hits, and Blocks, and Romanov was taken in the 18th round ahead of more established defencemen like Colton Parayko, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen.
Here are Romanov's season-long rate totals: 0.17 points, 0.6 PIMs, 1.4 shots, 2.96 hits, and 1.88 blocks. Those numbers are very similar to well-known multi-cat fillers like Calvin De Haan (0.12 points, 1.6 shots, 2.1 hits, 2.5 blocks) and Ristolainen (0.24 points, 1.5 shots, 3.5 hits, 1.9 blocks) but Romanov is only 22, his ice time has risen over five minutes since the start of the season, and he should hit his Breakout Threshold by the end of the 2022-23 campaign. In the 30 games since Martin St. Louis took over coaching duties for the Habs, his shots and blocks have risen but his hits have declined somewhat. Regardless, the increased ice time is very promising for his future viability in fantasy.
The main question with Romanov continues to be his offensive upside—-or lack thereof. So far, he's been exactly as advertised: a steady, hard-hitting defensive defenceman who can occasionally contribute to the scoresheet. Aside from putting up 14 points in 14 games in two consecutive U20 World Junior tournaments, Romanov has never posted the kind of numbers in junior that we expect to see from offensive-minded defencemen. That WJC production shows that he at least has the potential to put points on the board when called upon and given the opportunity. But by statistical models and historical comparables, he doesn't project as a player who will post 35+ points a year. But if he could hit 25-30 while maintaining his strong peripherals, he could be a useful player to own in bangers leagues. And his youth makes him an attractive gamble.
Sticking with Montreal draft picks for a moment, Artturi Lehkonen is already 26 and just played in his 400th game but he's never really had the offensive breakout that Habs fans expected from him. When Montreal selected him in the second round in 2013 (!), he had a high star potential of 42% on the strength of scoring 30 points in 45 games in his draft year as a teenager in the Finnish Liiga.
As you can see, his star potential then dropped dramatically as he posted slightly worse numbers in the Liiga in his D+1 year before spending two middling campaigns in the top Swedish league. With the Canadiens, when he finally crossed the ocean to North America, he averaged between 13 and 16 minutes a night over most of six seasons and never scored more than 31 points. He's always been a sneaky source for solid peripherals in bangers leagues (2+ shots and 1.5 hits/game) but was largely waiver fodder because of the lack of scoring.
At 5-11 and 179 lbs, he is not exceptionally sized and should thus qualify for a 200-game BT. But with his recent trade to Colorado and him having just passed 400 games, I wonder if there might still be a small breakout coming for him as an Av. He's been consistently seeing above 50% of the available power play time and almost a minute and a half more at even strength since the trade playing alongside JT Compher and Valeri Nichushkin.
It's a small sample size, but he's on pace for 50 points with a hit and almost three shots per game so far with Colorado. That would certainly make him rosterable in most formats. The question will be consistency and role. He'll be a restricted free agent at the end of 2021-22, but if he has a strong showing in the playoffs, it wouldn't be surprising to see Joe Sakic lock him down for a few years at a reasonable cap hit.
He's an effective two-way top six forward and drives play against tough competition. Everything is lining up here to make Lehkonen a sexy sleeper pick in redraft leagues heading into next year. The late trade means that his season-long numbers, which most managers will refer to, won't look as good as his recent production with the Avalanche. He'd make a great speculative add in the later rounds, and perhaps earlier if he plays a big role in a deep playoff run.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.