Ramblings: Roster Selection Tips, Goalie Injuries to Jarry, Andersen; Lafreniere, Beniers (Apr 17)
Ian Gooding
2022-04-17
Fantasy playoffs are top of mind for many of you reading this, with normally routine roster decisions becoming more magnified. I've seen a higher-than-normal number of start/sit questions on Twitter this weekend, many of which were very challenging! Complicated questions often don't have easy solutions, so I'll try to share some factors that I normally take into consideration.
Player valuation. In a normal week, I would suggest that you never bench your elite players. These are players capable of better results than the average player, even in a slump. At least if you lose, you can say you did it with your best players and not be left with the feeling that Canada had after the 1998 Olympics when Gretzky was left out of the shootout.
Specific categories. However, there are certain instances where it might make more sense to bench a stud for a specific category specialist. For example, you might start Tanner Jeannot over a better scorer if the scoring categories have already been decided but hits are close. Your best players might be the reason you are playing for a championship, but don't be afraid to use all the tools in your box either.
Matchups. Who is playing in net for the opponent? Conversely, which team is your goaltender facing? Obviously, anything can happen in a game, but you draft a top player for results over an entire season. If they are facing an unusually tough matchup, then you might have to consider benching them. Back-to-backs and home/road splits could also come into play.
Recent play. Who is holding the hot stick? Players produce when they are confident and in a rhythm. This might also relate to better linemates and/or an increase in icetime or power-play time. Player valuation is always changing.
Gut feeling. It's easy to fall into the trap of analysis paralysis, which happens when we receive an overwhelming amount of information to the point that it's impossible to make a decision. At that point, you might have to assume that the simplest explanation is most likely to be correct. Or just take a step back and trust your gut and go with your initial take.
Even after running through a decision-making process, the result might come down to dumb luck. After you make your selection, you'll just have to cross your fingers and hope for the best.
Sunday features a lighter schedule than Saturday, so you may not be forced into as many of these lineup decisions. Some of this advice might be useful for Sunday anyway, or you could bank this information for the busy days of the last two weeks of the season. If you need information for today, you can check out my possible waiver-wire picks from yesterday's Ramblings. If it's next week that you're focused on, the Looking Ahead article might help you.
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Alexis Lafreniere broke out of his eight-game point slump with a goal. Then he added this second one as the cherry on top.
Maybe someone who watches the Rangers more than I do can shed some light on this, but it doesn't seem right that Lafreniere is not used on a scoring line more often. Maybe he hasn't made the most of his opportunities, or maybe the Rangers are in enough of a win-now mode that they can't afford to wait on him to develop. Either way, the talent is there, so it might simply be a matter of being patient. Submitting a buy-low offer to an impatient Lafreniere keeper owner might be something to consider.
It wasn't all good for high-upside forwards on the Rangers. Kaapo Kakko left the game with a possible leg injury. This was just his fourth game back in the lineup after missing over two months with an upper-body injury. Kakko hasn't been an NHL star, but he hasn't had the greatest luck either. Kakko had scored two goals of his own in his last game.
Igor Shesterkin earned his 35th win of the season and his fifth shutout of the season, stopping all 20 Red Wings shots that he faced.
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Tristan Jarry is currently listed as week-to-week with a lower-body injury. One report suggests that he has a broken bone in his foot, which sounds like he would be done for what's left of the regular season. Casey DeSmith, who has now played in three of the past four games for the Penguins, started again on Saturday in the Penguins' 2-1 loss. The Penguins don't play again until Thursday of next week, but DeSmith deserves a pickup if you can stash him on your bench for a few days. The Pens face Detroit and Philadelphia in what should be a favorable back-to-back next weekend.
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More Mike Smith on Saturday. The veteran goalie picked up his second consecutive shutout on Saturday, stopping all 39 Golden Knights shots he faced. Smith also has five consecutive quality starts and six consecutive wins, giving him the advantage over Mikko Koskinen at the moment. I wrote more about Smith a couple days ago, so I'll keep it brief. Bottom line: he's a legitimate goaltending option for your fantasy playoffs, even if you vowed that you'd never add him again.
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Apologies to Dobber Prospects associate editor Pat Quinn, who benched Brayden Schenn on my advice (which comes with no guarantees or assurances). The Blues forward scored the overtime winner and added two assists on Saturday, outscoring numerous higher-scoring players on Pat's roster. That's how it goes sometimes when it all comes down to one day.
The Blues are on a roll right now, having won eight games in a row. Following a home game against Boston on Tuesday, they have some very winnable games in San Jose, Arizona, and Anaheim later this week. Forwards like Schenn and Pavel Buchnevich (also 1 G and 2 A on Saturday) should be able to pad their stats. Buchnevich in particular has a nine-game point streak with 17 points over that span.
With two goals and an assist, Ryan Hartman has reached 31 goals on the season. You probably expected him to reach that number in points for the season, not goals. Hartman has scored four goals over his last three games, which includes a two-goal performance during his "flipping the bird at Evander Kane" game on Tuesday.
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Mikael Granlund's goal on Saturday broke a 19-game goal drought. Not to worry, as he had recorded 11 assists over that span and added one more as well on Saturday. Jakub Voracek is the only forward with more assists than Granlund (45) but fewer goals than Granlund (10). Voracek has five goals and 49 assists on the season. I listed both as weekend waiver-wire options yesterday, so I'd have to assume that the lack of goals are a reason that both 50-point scorers are still available in many leagues.
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Tim Stutzle extended his point streak to eight games with a pair of goals. Stutzle has recorded multiple points in each of his last three games as well, with 13 points over the eight-game streak. I wrote more about Stutzle on Friday.
Mark Giordano scored the overtime winner on Saturday along with a pair of assists. Over his last nine games, Gio has eight points (2 G, 6 A). Over his 13 games as a Leaf, Giordano has also averaged over a hit per game and two blocked shots per game. Since his acquisition, the Leafs have won 10 of those 13 games. Could he really be that missing piece?
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Saturday also had its share of high-scoring games, with the teams being some of the usual suspects. Washington piled up eight goals on Sam Montembeault, including one from Alex Ovechkin.
Ovechkin has his eye on another 50-goal season. After Saturday, he only has to score three more goals to reach that milestone.
Anthony Mantha scored two goals and added two assists. Mantha snapped an eight-game goal drought, but he also has seven points over his last four games.
Dmitry Orlov returned from injury and scored a goal and added three assists. Orlov entered this game with just one point in his previous six games, so you can't be blamed if you didn't activate him for this game.
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Winnipeg built up a 4-2 lead on Tampa before the Lightning responded with five unanswered goals. Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman each recorded four points for the first time since the second game of the season.
Brian Elliott has now won three games in a row. For more about his situation, see the Saturday Ramblings.
Brayden Point is ice cold at the moment with just one point in his last seven games. That includes nothing from Saturday's seven-goal explosion from the Bolts.
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Frederik Andersen was helped off the ice after making a save late in the third period. A potential Andersen injury is why I opted for Antti Raanta insurance on one of my teams. The Hurricanes have an absolute banger of a schedule next week, starting with a juicy Monday matchup against the Coyotes, followed by the Jets, Devils, and Islanders. Add Raanta immediately if he is available (21% Yahoo, 34% Fantrax) and you need goaltending help. Raanta seems to fall to injury when he is counted on to handle a heavy workload, so hopefully this isn't anything long-term for Andersen.
Overall, it wasn't a game to remember for Andersen, who had allowed seven goals to the Avalanche before leaving. Although scoring seven goals is nothing unusual for the Avs, I'm wondering if Andersen's performance and subsequent injury are at least somewhat wear-and-tear related.
The Canes also lost Jordan Staal to injury after he took a hit from Cale Makar. Staal scored a pair of goals and took five shots before he left the game.
Mikko Rantanen scored a goal and added two assists for the Avalanche, while Nathan MacKinnon and J.T. Compher each scored two goals.
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Then the Flames pounded the Coyotes with nine goals in the late game on Hockey Night in Canada. Honestly, sitting through this one felt like an international matchup between a top-tiered country and one making its first-ever appearance in a tournament. You know the result. Let's just see how far they run up the score.
With two goals and two assists in this game, Johnny Gaudreau is now up to 105 points. He's now tied for third in the scoring race, just five points behind Connor McDavid in the scoring race. Johnny Hockey was also a plus-4 in this game, putting him at an insane plus-59.
Gaudreau's linemates Matthew Tkachuk (2 G, 2 A) and Elias Lindholm (1 G, 3 A) also finished the game with four points.
These two stats are pretty cool.
The Coyotes have now allowed a staggering 38 goals in their last six games – an average of over six goals allowed per game. Start all your Hurricanes on Monday, your Blackhawks on Wednesday, your Capitals on Friday, and your Blues on Saturday. Yes, those are all home games in the desert, but do it anyway and thank me later. And don't test fate and stream any Arizona goalies either. Maybe they beat Chicago on Wednesday, but the Coyotes are playing as badly as you thought they would before the season started.
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For the first time since the 2015-16 season, Kyle Okposo has 20 goals in a season. That was Okposo's last season as an Islander before signing a lucrative free agent contract with Buffalo. Who knew it would take him that long to reach 20 goals as a Sabre?
Over his last 11 games, Victor Olofsson has 12 goals, including six goals. Oh, and he plays the Flyers again today (Sunday) if you need a waiver-wire pickup.
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Second overall pick Matty Beniers scored his first NHL goal on Saturday. That gives him points in each of his two NHL games. Beniers' goal was on the power play, where he is taking on first-unit minutes along with scoring-line even-strength minutes with Jordan Eberle.
Sneaky scheduling tip: Remember that postponed game with the Jets earlier this week? Because it will be added by both Yahoo and Fantrax (not sure about the others), the Kraken play a league-leading eight games over the final two weeks of the season. They are also the only team to play four games over the final week of the season. Beniers is just 1 percent rostered in Yahoo (40% in Fantrax), so he's definitely worth taking a flier on in single-season leagues.
Dobber Prospects Profile – Matty Beniers
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Happy Easter! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.