Lining Up: Top Even Strength Line Combinations and What It Means For Next Year

Peter Ryell

2022-04-26

Welcome back to Lining Up. Hopefully you are resting on your laurels for a job well done or locking down the championship during the few remaining days. This week will examine some notable top even strength lines from the season and dig into a few players that have exceeded expectations in their current deployment. It will also curate some honourable mentions and short thoughts on how continued deployment next year will provide extra value on draft day.

Let's dive in.

Top 20 Forward EV lines this season:

Elias LindholmJohnny GaudreauMatthew Tkachuk

No doubt one of the bigger surprises of the season is Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk getting to over 100 points each. The trio have played for over 75% of the season together at even strength and subsequently blown the second highest scoring line out of the water by nearly 20 more GF. It has been a unique combination where all three players remained healthy for the season and were seldom separated. For his part, Gaudreau nearly doubled his point output from the previous two seasons where he only paced for 70 last year and 68 the year prior. In Yahoo leagues, his ADP was 54 and he was selected well after names like such as Alex Debrincat, Mark Scheifele, Sebastian Aho, John Tavares and Elias Pettersson. All players he vastly outperformed. Additionally, his current point total is only comprised of 25 power play points. When considering this and the amount of time spent with Lindholm and Tkachuk, Gaudreau recorded nearly three quarters of this years' insane point total while playing on this line.

Tkachuk and Lindholm also saw their stock rise. In the previous two seasons they averaged a 67- and 66-point pace before now pacing for 105 and 83 points respectively. Lindholm for his part was taken around the 82 pick in Yahoo leagues and even he was able to outperform some the bigger star names noted above. Line mates have clearly made an impact and so long as they remain together next season expect a dominant performance from this trio. Lindholm in particular may sneak under the radar but should remain a point-per-game threat, averaging nearly three shots on goal that you can find in the sixth or seventh rounds next year.

Taylor HallErik HaulaDavid Pastrnak

This line from Boston was formed part way through the season when the Perfection Line was separated and Pastrnak was moved down, immediately boosting the value of Hall and Haula. They combined for 25 GF, 12 GA and a CF% of 55.6, solid production. As of this writing, Hall is operating near a 60-point pace with just over two and a half shots per game. This may not sound like much but a reminder that prior to him being united with Pastrnak, Hall started the first 19 games with only 11 points for a 47-point pace. Over the next 61 games he paced for 63 points. Should this line remain intact next season, Hall could be looking at his best point output since he was above a point-per-game in New Jersey.

Should Hall be taken earlier than expected due to the more recognizable name, Haula could be an excellent late round selection. He has also steadily increased his point production since the arrival Pastrnak, only putting up three points in his first 17 games. However his last 17 games have seen him post 18 points and that is with no advanced stats being above normal levels. Regardless, this line deployment has led to Haula having his best point production since the 2017-2018 season with Vegas. 

Brady TkachukDrake BathersonJosh Norris

This trio from Ottawa cracked the top 20 even strength lines of the season and Batherson missed nearly half of it. The only player of this line that did not wildly exceed expectations was Brady Tkachuk and he had the highest ADP by far due to his peripheral contributions, which were a little lower than in previous seasons at three and a half shots and hits per game. His point output increased from averaging a 52-point pace over his previous three seasons to a 67-point pace this season.

Norris on the other hand had an ADP in Yahoo leagues of 177 and increased his point production like Tkachuk from 51 last season to a 69 point pace this year including doubling his goals. The concern here is that he has a shooting percentage of 20.4 which is high for most players but because this is Norris' second season, we do not have any comparable data from previous seasons to say that it is inflated. Regardless, maintaining this spot on the top line between Tkachuk and Batherson as well as his power-play role should continue to pay dividends. If you can get him in the later rounds do not hesitate to grab him next year.

Batherson had a similarly shocking ADP of 172, he was certainly a player that many managers had pegged for around 50 points with good peripherals but he has rewarded those who drafted him by becoming a near point-per-game player. Currently on pace for 80 points, Batherson has been the one who benefited the most from this line deployment as he only finished last season with 34 points in 56 games for a 50-point pace, a career high at the time. He may not bring the same level of peripheral contribution as Brady but two and a half shots and two hits per game at even a 70 point pace is excellent value. Let someone else draft Tkachuk in the first or second round and then target Batherson in the mid rounds.

It will be interesting to see what the ADPs for this line is next year and whether or not Batherson and Norris in particular would have sustained this point pace through a full season without injury. At this point in time it is difficult to gauge in which round they can be expected to be drafted in but count on this line deployment to continue and make sure to draft them if you can.

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Honourable Mentions:

Michael Bunting

Bunting was slotted in alongside Toronto stars Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews early in the season and he has not looked back, playing nearly 50% of his time with the pair. The result is a 65 point pace this season for the rookie. Should this deployment continue into next season and his development as well, it would not be a stretch to pencil his floor at 50 points.

Nick SchmaltzClayton Keller

Prior to Keller's season-ending injury, these two were really showing some chemistry when lining up together. Schmaltz had a wild period of time in the third quarter between January and March, highlighted by a 7-point night (2 G, 5 A) and immediately followed by a 4-point night (2 G, 2 A). He and Keller are or were posting their best seasons to date, playing at 75- and 77-point paces respectively. Arizona may largely be bereft of fantasy stars but look to see whether these two are continuing lining up together and target them late in your drafts next year for great value.

Robert Thomas

Thomas went undrafted this year in Yahoo leagues and is on an 89-point pace for the season, including the absolute tear he has been on lately with 28 points in his past 17 games. Undrafted. Much of the damage has come from playing alongside Vladimir Tarasenko and Pavel Buchnevich. Should Tarasenko stay with St. Louis, be sure to not sleep on Thomas as he is poised to continue this monster year if that deployment continues.

Jeff SkinnerAlex TuchTage Thompson

This line spent nearly a third of their time together this season, Skinner and Thompson even more so prior to the arrival of Tuch and all three have had very good years. Skinner has been completely revitalized with 33 goals and 62 points in 78 games this year, his best season since 2018-2019. Tuch has been a great fit a similarly is at the best point pace of his career, largely due to the best PP deployment and averaging 18 minutes a night. Thompson has come completely out of nowhere and has 67 points in 76 games. Some advanced stats are higher than normal for these three but this line has really connected and all should be available late in drafts next year. Buffalo is no longer a wasteland for fantasy hockey.

Thanks for reading.

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