Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Cory)

Who are 3-5 players for each position (forward, defenseman, goalie) you believe will produce much better next year, and why? These could be guys bouncing back, recovering from injury, or just poised to break out due to normal circumstances.

Great question, since if we rely solely on season-long totals we often won't be able to pinpoint true buy low players, as overall numbers can, and often do, disguise that status. Also, let me stress that buy low doesn't necessarily mean dirt cheap; it's someone who should be available – whether in drafts or via trade – for a cost less than what he'll ultimately end up being worth. Lastly, these are players who I see as buy lows for next season, rather than players who will only start to pay dividends further down the road, although some might get even better in future campaigns. With all that out of the way, here are several names for each position (G, D, F), with more defensemen than goalies and more forwards than defensemen, so as to reflect the composition of most fantasy teams' rosters.

For goalies, the ones that jump out are Jordan Binnington, Elvis Merzlikins, Ilya Sorokin, Anton Forsberg, and Semyon Varlamov. With Binnington and Elvis, their GAA and SV% are headed in the wrong direction for the third (Binnington) and second (Elvis) straight seasons; but Ville Husso will almost assuredly leave as a UFA and Binnington is paid too much not to get a long leash to rebound, with it being a similar story for Elvis, due to Joonas Korpisalo departing as a UFA. Both are worth a gamble. Sorokin's price might be higher than you'd want to pay; however, at worst he'll be "the guy" in 2023-24 when Barry "timeshare" Trotz and Semyon Varlamov (more on his below) will be gone, if not sooner. Let's not forget when Sorokin started every day, as he was in the first month of the season, he was otherworldly. Don't let the next potential Igor Shesterkin slip through your fingers. As for Forsberg, his numbers are brought down by a dreadful early stretch. Discount that though, and he's been stellar. Plus, even if Matt Murray isn't bought out, the chances of him both staying healthy and playing well are slim to none. Varlamov is tricky because whoever owns him likely paid a lot, and in turn would be hesitant to let him go cheap, and I do think he gets moved before drafts, which would cause his price to spike. Still, I believe he's worth trying to get right now for a decent price.

Turning to defensemen, I like Thomas Chabot, Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg, Rasmus Dahlin, Dougie Hamilton, Tyson Barrie, and Vince Dunn. I covered Chabot in a Goldipucks column, where I saw good things lying ahead; and sure enough, he was enjoying a ten-game point per game stretch before he got hurt. His numbers for the season are weak enough to disguise how strong he looked, regardless of his production upon returning for the last few games. Klingberg and Heiskanen both will benefit from no longer being on the same team; but act quickly, as their prices will rise as free agency nears. Dahlin is following Quinn Hughes' playbook, which is a good thing, and the Sabres aren't even very good yet. He's poised to explode. Hamilton had a weak first season in Carolina and then went nuts. Look for that to happen again in New Jersey starting in 2022-23. Barrie is a good get in the offseason, as his recent play has been better and you don't want that fresh on folks' minds. Dunn will be "the guy" in Seattle with Mark Giordano gone, so grab him before poolies' eyes get reopened.

For forwards, my list includes Mark Stone, Brayden Point, Mathew Barzal, Nick Suzuki, Jack Roslovic, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Comtois, and Brandon Hagel. Stone's value won't have cratered; but he could be had for less than he's truly worth due to missing significant time. Point seems to save his best for the Stanley Cup playoffs, so best to get him now, as once he plays a full season with Nikita Kucherov he could top 90 points again. Barzal is a good stash for when Barry Trotz is gone after next season at the latest, as let's not forget he had 85 points right before Trotz arrived, which can't be a coincidence. Suzuki has ignited under Martin St. Louis, so best to grab him in the offseason as well, when memories of his torrid late season play will have faded at least somewhat. Roslovic has stepped up after the injury to Boone Jenner and with vastly increased ice time, but his season totals still show disappointment. He's worth grabbing, as 2022-23 could be when he finally figures it all out. Bjorkstrand started on fire then cooled, but he's still talented and even as he's struggled he's remained on PP1, showing the faith the team has in him. As for Comtois and Hagel, they're the most risk/reward players, as Comtois' output is way down; but it looks as though Anaheim is still eager to find a place for him in the top six. Hagel could sneak onto a Tampa scoring line too. Grab them cheap and hope for the best.

In sum, those are players I believe could qualify as "buy low" either in general or based on the price it should take to acquire them at the right time. Also consider skaters who'll be hitting or just past their 200 game breakout threshold in 2022-23, including the 20 covered in my most recent Poll. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Ariel)

In a 12 team H2H keep 6 league starting 2C, 2RW, 2LW 4D, 1UTIL, 2G (min 3 starts) and 5 bench spots, with categories of G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, GS, W, GAA, SV% and SHO, which 6 of the following players should be kept?

C: Jack Eichel, Logan Couture, Dylan Larkin, Elias Lindholm

LW: Jake Guentzel, Alex DeBrincat, Jack Hughes, Jonathan Huberdeau

RW: Teuvo Teravainen, Matt Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Jesper Bratt

D: Cale Makar, Mackenzie Weegar, Jacob Trouba

G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, Spencer Knight

What jumped out to me about this league is, even assuming the utility spot is used on a forward, 36% of active skaters are defensemen. As such, you probably want to consider two defensemen keepers. Although Makar is the best of them all, neither Weegar nor Trouba is keep-six worthy. I would go into this hoping to have an excess of forward keepers so as to be able to consider trading for another top d-man.

Before getting to forwards though, let's iron out your goaltending. As great as Swayman and/or Knight might become, they are not retainable in a league with 72 players being kept and you already having Vas. If somehow you can trade them, try to do so, but my guess is you won't find a suitor, as teams who do opt to keep a goalie – and I'm guessing most won't – will need more locked in value than either of them will be able to provide in the near term.

Who makes the short list among your forwards? I'd say Eichel, Larkin, Lindholm, Guentzel, DeBrincat, Hughes, and Huberdeau. Your RWs are all quite good; however, TT isn't superb in multicat, Zucc could fall victim to father time, Kreider's magical season probably won't repeat itself, and Bratt is fine except his upside is likely limited, as I noted in a Goldipucks column.

That leaves the seven Cs and LWs. You'll be keeping at least three, in addition to Vas, Makar, and, perhaps, a d-man for whom you trade. Which forwards are must keeps? Huberdeau isn't this amazing, but Florida is a powerhouse and you have to hold onto him. In multicats, I think Lindholm has the next highest value. Yes, he's at his best in cap leagues, but he's not a huge "name" so trading him won't do you any good. Still, Lindholm really stuffs the stat sheet and I'd look to keep him, that is unless Johnny Gaudreau signs elsewhere, in which case Lindholm's value will shrink enough for him not to make the cut. Hopefully final keeper decisions don't have to be made until after UFAs have signed.

The third guy I'd keep is Eichel. Yes, it's concerning given what he's been through and him not having looked great since he returned. However, you wouldn't be able to get close to value for him in trade, and based on what he did with the Sabres when he was essentially a one-man team, hopes are still high he can return to top form once he's able to play a full campaign for the Knights.

That leaves your RWs, DeBrincat, Larkin, Hughes, and Guentzel as trade bait to get another defenseman. The guy I hate to not keep is Hughes, so if you really want to keep him I can get behind it, as he looks primed to enter the upper echelon. Still though, I think there's consideration to getting Victor Hedman or John Carlson and keeping him as a second rearguard. Yes, both are starting to age; however, each still seemingly has gas left in the tank, receives amazing deployment, and even stuffs the stat sheet well. I believe either Hedman or Carlson would make your team even better than any of those four, with the sole exception of perhaps Hughes, whom you might have to include in a trade to get one of them.

In sum, my keepers are Vasilevskiy, Makar, Lindholm, Huberdeau, Eichel, and, assuming you trade for one, Hedman or Carlson. If you really want to keep Hughes, I can see doing that over either trading for Hedman/Carlson or perhaps over keeping Lindholm if Gaudreau doesn't re-sign with the Flames. As for your other assets, do try to move them too, since you have a few who'd merit being kept in this set up, and, as such, hopefully they can fetch you – in addition to Hedman or Carlson – draft picks that will allow you to reassemble a team as great as this one undoubtedly was. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Steven)

I’m in a 12 team salary cap keeper league. Our rosters consist of 23 players. We start 9F, 6D, 1G per night. Games are maxed at 82 x 16. The cap is set at the NHL's salary cap (total salary, not AAV) plus 10%. We can keep 13 players each year, so we draft fewer – ten – than we keep. Still, we also have 10 free agent moves that we can make during each season; so between drafting and pick-ups there is room for some risk/reward when it comes to keepers. Categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, SHG, W, L, SV, SO. My current roster – with 2022-23 salaries denoted – is:

F: Nicolas Roy (RFA), Anthony Duclair ($3.0M), Ryan Hartman ($2.0M), Evan Rodrigues (UFA), Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Leon Draisaitl ($8.0M), Ryan Strome (UFA), Isac Lundestrom (RFA), Alex Killorn ($4.45M), Nicolaj Ehlers ($4.75M), Robert Thomas ($3.2M), Evgeni Malkin (UFA)

D: Zach Whitecloud ($3.0M), Torey Krug ($8.0M), Roman Josi ($9.75M), Kevin Shattenkirk ($4.95M), K'Andre Miller ($0.925M), Mario Ferraro (UFA), Vladislav Gavrikov ($4.2M), John Carlson ($6.0M)

G: Kappo Kahkonen (RFA), Alex Nedeljkovic ($3.5M), Tristan Jarry ($4.5M)

I see three "no brainer" keeps in Draisaitl, Gaudreau, and Josi. What other ten would you choose, assuming you agree with those I identified?

Keeping more than half your players seems like a treat, but it also can make things tricky, especially when you throw in this being a cap league and no fewer than nine of your players on tap to sign new deals this summer. If things get close enough for money to matter, we may have to do some guesswork in terms of how much some these players will sign for, in which case I'll use the list put together late last year by DobberHockey's resident salary cap expert Alex MacLean in order to get a better sense of what some of the keepable guys figure to make on their next deal.

One thing that immediately jumped out is although the one goalie who starts comprises just 6% of your starting line-up, goalie categories represent 40% of scoring (i.e., four of ten overall categories). As such, and although Jarry has had a fine season, you ought to try and trade for a tier zero (i.e., better than tier one) goalie, of which there are two – Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. I happen to think Igor Sorokin will join their ranks as soon as next season, or no later than 2023-24, so you could consider him as well. How do you get one of them? Jarry plus Josi. Yes, the idea of trading Josi given his production seems crazy, but this is a player who turns 32 in June and whose metrics scream unsustainable to begin with, plus who in all but one of his last seven seasons scored at a 56- to 62-point pace. I've said this many times but it bears repeating – it's called selling high for a reason. Turn Josi and Jarry into Vas or Igor, and then sit back and reap the benefits.

Looking at your original list, Josi is now gone, and I definitely agree with Gaudreau, no matter what he signs for or where, as well as Draisaitl; so with the goalie you acquired we still need ten more. The easy ones are Hartman, Duclair, Ehlers, Thomas, Malkin, and Carlson. The first four are extremely solid for their price, and Malkin has looked quite good since he came back this season. Carlson isn't cheap, but he's still got a 70-point floor, which is superb.

That leaves five more. Put me down for Strome, who'll either stay in New York and, if so, presumably remain tethered to Artemi Panarin, or will go to another team, where his salary will have him command major minutes and great deployment. I think Killorn is unspectacular but solid, and he seems to find a way to always stay in the scoring mix.

The last two are going to be steps down though, and would be selected from the group of Ferraro, Miller, Whitecloud, Krug, and Rodrigues. Of the five, Rodrigues is the risk/reward pick, as he could sign a UFA deal that leads to him getting thrust into the top six and then looking as good as he did for portions of the season for the Pens. On the other hand, he just as easily may end up attracting little interest and in turn end up in a situation much like the one he's in now, where he's barely getting any playing time and not making the most of what he does receive. If you have a tolerance for that kind of risk, and want to conserve funds, I'd go with him as one of the two. As for Krug, he's gone from top producing defenseman to 50-point rearguard for St. Louis, which is not great for his cap hit. Still, if he can rise back to 60 points, he could be a nice asset. Miller or Whitecloud both are cheap but they're also unspectacular and don't stuff the stat sheet nearly as well as does Ferraro, who's a UFA, which is a bit scary; however, Ferraro is unlikely to be prohibitively expensive.

In sum, trade Josi and Jarry for Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin. Assuming that occurs, your keeps are the goalie you acquire, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, Hartman, Duclair, Ehlers, Thomas, Malkin, Carlson, Strome, and Killorn, plus two of Whitecloud, Miller, Ferraro, Krug and Rodrigues, with the choice being yours given the pros and cons I listed above. If it was up to me to choose the two, I'd roll the dice on Rodrigues as one, as well as Ferraro for the other. That, though, would leave you with only two d-man keepers, so I could see swapping in Whitecloud or Miller (I'd do Whitecloud) for Rodrigues. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Andrew)

I’m in a 12 team, keep 12 actual salary league (i.e., not AAV, and equal to the NHL cap) with 10F, 5D, 2G starting plus 6 bench, and with categories of G, A, W (2 points), SO, OTSOL. The last couple of years I've been in the top 3 and decided against a rebuild this year plus took some chances in our draft. Things so far have worked out and I'm a lock for top 3 again (2nd as I write this). I'm hoping you could help me pick my 12 keepers, as a bunch of my risky plays involved contract year guys. I'm also terrible at drafting goalies; hence, I've employed the shotgun method of picking a bunch and hoping some pan out. Trading is available in the offseason but very difficult as most GMs don’t respond to offers until the last minute. Drafting forwards is easiest, as most teams keep 3-4 defensemen and 2 goalies.

Players who I could see as perhaps being keepers – with 2022-23 salary noted – are:

F- Pavel Buchnevich ($5.5M), Alex Debrincat ($9.0M), Anthony Duclair ($3M), Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Roope Hintz ($4.45M), Nazem Kadri (UFA), Evander Kane (UFA), Kuznetsov ($5.0M), Mark Scheifele ($5.5M), Mats Zuccarello ($7.5M)

D- Rasmus Andersson ($4.55M), Dougie Hamilton ($6.3M), Kris Letang (UFA), Pietrangelo ($8.0M)

G- Thatcher Demko ($4.5M), Cal Petersen ($4.0M), Ullmark ($6.0M), Kahkonen (RFA)

I’m leaning towards keeping Buchnevich, Hintz, Kuznetsov, Scheifele, Zuccarello, Andersson, Hamilton, and Demko, but am less clear on the other four. Which 12 of these 18 would you keep?

In this case, where 12 of those listed are going to be keepers and only six aren't, let's try to get to the keepers by instead focusing on those players who won't be kept. For starters, there are your goalies, and I can't see a universe in which Ullmark or Kahkonen are kept. Ullmark is at best a 1A at this point, while KK might be the presumed starter in San Jose, but that team still looks like it's going to struggle so even though he'll likely still be a bargain I don't think he merits keeping. Peterson is a maybe, and I agree on keeping Demko.

Switching to defense, I'm inclined to not keep Pietrangelo. Although Shea Theodore hasn't made him obsolete just yet, Pietrangelo has seemingly crossed into territory where his name value, not to mention his salary, are both higher than his actual worth. I like keeping Andersson and Hamilton as you planned, and Letang is a maybe for now.

For forwards, I think Kadri has post-UFA let down written all over him. For him to have performed so far above and beyond any past season, and at age 31, just doesn't make sense. I fear he is going to crash hard next year in what presumably will be a #1 center role. Let's also not forget Kadri was sheltered by Nathan MacKinnon this season in that teams had no choice but to focus on Mac's line and, in so doing, Kadri's unit got easier match-ups. All this spells disappointment in general, but especially so given the huge raise he's poised to receive. He's not a keep from where I sit. Another forward I'm omitting is Kane. He's done pretty well with Edmonton, but not great, and points-only isn't his forte. Yes, he's not likely to be paid a ton because teams are afraid of committing a lot to someone like him, but I still think he doesn't pass muster given who else you have. For forwards, I'll put down Zuccarello as a maybe due to his age and high cost.

So the last cut is Letang, Zuccarello or Petersen. I realize you said most teams keep two goalies, but the impact of their categories don't seem to justify doing so, or at least not when one is Petersen. Still, you know your league better than me, so if you believe Petersen must be kept, then let's focus on the drop out of Letang and Zucc. For me it'd be Letang, who's not best in points only and his run of non-injury good luck is bound to end soon, perhaps right after he signs his one last big UFA deal.

To review, the goalie drops are Ullmark and Kahkonen, and – perhaps – Petersen. The skater casualties are Pietrangelo, who isn't playing up to his salary level and has little risk of rebounding, Kadri, who screams post-UFA overpaid disaster, and Kane, who might be a bargain but hasn't even been that great for Edmonton and has little risk of coming back to haunt you given the league's categories. If Petersen is kept, then Letang can be tossed back in the draft pool. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Kasey)

In my league our rosters are officially locked and as such I'm now looking towards next season and wanting your opinions on a few things. It's a 10 team cap ($82.5M next season) league with 1 point for a goal, 1 for an assist, and with each +/- counting for one point each either way, plus 2 points for a goalie win, 1 for an OTL, and a bonus 2 points for a shutout. We keep up to 7F, 3D, 1G, plus 1 more from any position. Our minimum starting roster is 12F, 6D, 1G. We also have 4 optional bench spots. It's a season long league, not H2H, and has maximum starts of: Forwards = 984, Defensemen = 492, and Goalies = 82. There are no positional requirements for forwards. Here is my roster, with 2022-23 salaries denoted:

F: Aleksander Barkov ($12M), Kirill Kaprizov ($10M), Mitch Marner ($8M), Jonathan Huberdeau ($ $6.2M), Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Elias Lindholm ($3.85M), Joel Farabee ($3M), Troy Terry ($1.55M), Brandon Hagel ($1.45M), Nolan Patrick ($1.4M), Trevor Zegras ($0.925M), Marco Rossi ($0.925M), Kappo Kakko (RFA), Philip Tomasino ($0.832M)

D: Morgan Rielly ($8M), Aaron Ekblad ($6M), Tony DeAngelo (RFA), Brandon Montour ($3.5M), Gustav Forsling ($2.5M), Oliver Kylington (RFA), Alexander Carrier ($0.750M)

G: Igor Shesterkin ($6M)

I'm leaning toward keeping Barkov, Kaprizov, Huberdeau, Marner, Lindholm, Zegras, Rossi, Ekblad, DeAngelo, Carrier, Shesterkin, and, as my any position keep, Terry. That would leave me with $26.3M to spend on DeAngelo and players at the draft. If DeAngelo gets a huge deal, I'd probably go with Kylington or Forsling to save some $$. Alternatively, I could go "all in" and keep Gaudreau and/or Rielly instead of Rossi and Carrier, but that would leave me with scraps to spend at the draft. Still, my team's core would likely be so strong that it is tempting.

My questions are, who would be your keepers and why? Would you roster the best possible players or try to leave more cap room for the draft to have options? Would you prioritize using salary for proven forwards and go inexpensive on defense, or try to keep the high point producing defensemen?

First off, kudos for all the information and perspective you provided. For those of you reading this, it's always best to provide me with anything and everything you believe could be relevant to me giving you the best and most complete answer to your question(s).

With that out of the way, as I read this one thing stuck out to me big time: plus minus is HUGE in this league. There are some defensive defensemen who could have nearly as much value as a tier one or definitely tier two goalie, and it also affects relative values of forwards and defensemen for sure. That all having been said, planning around plus minus is risky. Why do I say this? Well, how about the fact that a mere three – yes, just three – skaters in the entire NHL were +10 or better in each of the last five seasons, with only 13 meeting the criteria in four of the five. That means when looking at the entirety of players in the NHL, a mere 17 were +10 or better in 60% or more of the past five seasons. As I write this, there are no fewer than eight Flames in the top 50 overall for plus minus when just last season they had none in the top 50. Yes, that's an extreme example; however, it does show that other than in a few cases it can be difficult to rely on year-to-year consistency in plus minus. Still, let's bear it in mind here, as it might make the difference in "close call" keeper decisions.

I like your list, other than Rossi and Carrier. Yes, given the dead cap space Minnesota will be carrying over the next three seasons they will do everything they can to try and make it work with Rossi; but he's still not yet playing in the NHL, while Matt Boldy, who's essentially the same age, is with the big club despite being a wing, a position where the team is more deep than at Rossi's center. Yes, Rossi is doing pretty well in the AHL and the expectation is he'll be with the Wild for good next season, but I worry that as a smaller player he might not hit his stride until the 400 game NHL mark; and even though he'll be on his ELC for several seasons to come, he might be too much of a downside risk to keep. As for Carrier, here is where I invoke plus minus, as both Kylington and Forsling strike me as better options given how they're faring in that area and the likelihood they'll stay strong beyond just this season.

What forward do I prefer over Rossi? One of my Question #1 buy lows – Hagel. He's poised to be the next Ondrej Palat, who we saw could thrive in the top six. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hagel skate as the third member of the Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point line, and to me that risk/reward is better than going with Rossi. The question thus becomes whether to remove not just Carrier for Kylington or Forsling, but also DeAngelo too, making it so you do save money. DeAngelo would be a tough omit, but let's not forget he was in a similar position in 2019-20 then shot himself in the foot once he had a nice new contract in his back pocket. Will he make the same mistake again? Who's to say really. Yes, he is one of the few d-men who has 70+ point talent and on Carolina he's quite plus. But I think he's a time bomb waiting to go off again, so let his new contract and ten cent head be someone else's risk. Keep Forsling plus Kylington rather than DeAngelo and Carrier, and keep Hagel over Rossi. Good luck!

Question #6 (from John)

I'm in a 12 team, 20 rostered (10F, 4D, 1G daily starts), keep 9 (8, plus 1 rookie) league. Scoring is 1 point for each G, Pt, PPPt, and SHG, so quite goal-centric. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 5 for a SO. Not only must a rookie be kept, but one must be drafted and one has to be on the active roster at all times. So you know, most teams don't choose to keep a goalie.

My keepers thus far are; Steven Stamkos, Kyle Connor, David Pastrnak, Alex Debrincat, Kevin Fiala, Mathew Barzal and, as my rookie, Evan Bouchard. Which two more would you keep from this group: Yegor Sharangovich, Arthur Kaliyev, Alexander Barabonov, Seth Jones, Cam Fowler, Sean Durzi, Miro Heiskanen, Charlie Coyle, Jared McCann, Anton Lundell, Brandon Hagel, and Gustav Nyquist? I'm leaning towards Heiskanen and Jones but have the feeling Kaliyev and Lundell may become special players. My goal for my team is to finish in the top echelon, so I do want to make sure I have the right players to win now. Still though, those youngsters are tempting. What would you do?

First off, you'll get no pushback from me on your anointed keepers. They all pass muster, so we just need to focus on who the other two should be.

Not surprisingly given that he was one of my buy lows, I'm going with Heiskanen as one. His problem has been a combination of expectations being sky high after the 2020 playoffs, plus the ongoing presence of John Klingberg. With Klingberg likely subtracted from the equation next season, Heiskanen will be in a better position to succeed, which is key since to date the team hasn't deployed him favorably in the regular season. Heiskanen should be a "do it all" kind of d-man who will eat big minutes in all situations, and I think it could light a fire under him to the tune of 60+ points, although you never know for sure and he could instead be a Nick Leddy, Cam Fowler, or Jared Spurgeon type who tops out at 45-50 points. Speaking of do it all defensemen, that's a label which surely applies to Jones, who, despite the struggles Chicago is enduring, is still faring quite well and in my opinion is the hand down second keep. For him, 55 points is the floor, and he could go higher. His goal total isn't what it was, but he's still rock solid.

I like that you're thinking outside the box to consider Kaliyev and Lundell; however, when you have options like Heiskanen and Jones, and you want to win now, you shouldn't overcomplicate things when it comes to keepers. Perhaps if this was a true dynasty or there were 16+ teams it might be important to focus more on youth; but given what you've laid out, you want to assemble the best squad via keepers and then focus on youngsters at the draft. So keep Heiskanen and Jones, and redraft the other two if you still want them. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Francois)

In a 12 team points-only, keep 8 league, with starting line-ups of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 1U, 2G, I’m in the second season of a rebuild and believe I have a chance to contend in 2022-23 considering the players I have and the draft picks I’ve acquired through trades this season, which put me with two picks in each of the first four rounds, plus in the 6th and 13th as well.

The players I intend on keeping are Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Hughes, Lucas Raymond, Nick Suzuki, Jesper Bratt, Moritz Seider and Igor Shesterkin. That leaves me one more spot, and I have it narrowed to Miro Heiskanen, Matt Boldy or Anton Lundell. I'm intrigued by what Heiskanen might be able to do if John Klingberg leaves, but I could also see Boldy and Lundell becoming top young players.

You have three players – Kaprizov, Hughes and Shesterkin – who figure to be among the top 50 in a points only format with your roster sizes. That is a bit below average for a 12-team league, where, theoretically, each team should have four (i.e., 4×12=48) top 50 guys. Also, with the possible exception of Bratt, the rest of your envisioned keepers are players who likely will be good but not yet great in 2022-23 but who also have realistic room to get very good if not by 2023-24 then in the near future.

What I'm driving at is you strike me as still in the midst of a rebuild based on your keepers, so you have two ways you can choose to proceed – (1) use your draft picks to get immediate upgrades to try and help you contend now, or (2) use 2022-23 as a way to stock your cupboards for the 2023-24 season, by which, as I noted, you should have an even better team for the present and the future. My take is you'd be better off with the second option. Use your draft picks to grab a mix of risk/reward players plus surer bets. That way, by this time next year you should have a group of eight keepers which will have more top tier players and put you on a course to win in 2023-24 and stay competitive for seasons to come.

Looking at the three contenders for the final keeper spot, as I noted things are indeed shaping up for Heiskanen's deployment to improve significantly if, as expected, Klingberg leaves as a UFA this summer. Yes, Heiskanen has yet to come close to duplicating the success he had in the 2020 playoffs; however, his IPP on the PP had risen in each of his past two seasons, and with him presumably getting a shot on PP1 that should equate to a big boost in his output. As discussed above however, there is a risk he becomes more of a Fowler, Spurgeon or Leddy type, namely a player who, even with PP1 time, isn't more than a 40- to 50-point defenseman most years. Of course Heiskanen is still only 22 and has yet to truly get a shot on PP1, so it's not yet clear what path his career will take. Also, if you don't keep Heiskanen, you'd only have one rearguard keeper at a position comprising 28% (i.e., 6 of 21) of your starting line-up, meaning that ideally two of your eight keepers (i.e., 25%) would be defensemen.

Then there's Boldy and Lundell. For Lundell, he's stuck on a great team that doesn't need him, at least not yet. He's a third liner, as although Sam Bennett's "spot" alongside Jonathan Huberdeau is not set in stone, Bennett's SOG volume meshes well with Huberdeau being a set up guy primarily, plus Bennett brings a bit of a sandpaper edge to that line, helping to deter other teams from taking as many liberties with Huberdeau as they otherwise might. Though Lundell could conceivable play wing, it's not clear whether he'd be elevated by doing so, as Sam Reinhart already is a hybrid wing/center and he's signed for two more seasons. I like Lundell, but he's a safe redraft for now.

As for Boldy, a big lure is he's all but assured a locked in spot within the Wild's top six, as Minnesota has $12.7M, $14.7M, and $14.7M in cap penalties over the next three seasons, such that the Wild will need to lean on home grown talent like Boldy as much as possible. Still, he plays the same position as Kirill Kaprizov, so he'd have to shift to RW to be able to take the ice with Kaprizov, and we've already seen that Minnesota has been reluctant to slot Kevin Fiala, a natural right wing, with Kaprizov, making it so Boldy is likely "stuck" on the second line. Still, he could find a spot on PP1, which as of now has two weaker links in Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson-Ek. Both are bigger players who the team likes to have out there with the more skilled Kaprizov and smaller Mats Zuccarello, so they might stay with that unit. Plus, if they don't, then Fiala might have first dibs on the vacant spot.

In the end, while Boldy has shown a lot and should continue to get favorable deployment, the lack of time on PP1 is a drawback, as is it being all but assured he won't skate with Kaprizov. Heiskanen has some ifs too, as we've yet to see him play anywhere near the level he did in the 2020 playoffs. That may be due to the long shadow cast by John Klingberg, and once he's gone, which it seems safe to say he will be, that will immediately turn Heiskanen into "the guy," which has served to elevate the play of many a d-man, but not everyone, with cases in point being Fowler, Leddy and Spurgeon. It's closer than it might appear due to Boldy's strong play, but I think Heiskanen is the "correct" keep. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Adam)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 6 league where a player's keeper cost is based on draft position and "increases" by 2 rounds each year (i.e., the kept player would be kept two rounds earlier) until it hits a 5th round cost, then "increases" by 1 round each year. If you own two players in the same round, you either have to get another pick in that round or keep one of them a round earlier. Undrafted FA pickups cost an 18th round pick to keep. The draft is 19 rounds, giving each team 13 picks to go with the 6 keepers. Starting line-ups consist of 2LW, 2RW, 2C, 4D, 2Util, 2G. Categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, Games Started, W, GAA, Shots Against, SV%. My roster is as follows, with keeper round and, if applicable, multi-positional eligibility indicated:

C: Sidney Crosby (1st), Andrew Copp (LW/RW, 18th), Jonathan Marchessault (LW/RW, 3rd), Josh Norris (12th), Patrice Bergeron (2nd), Robert Thomas (18th)

LW: Bryan Rust (RW, 7th), Jason Robertson (16th), Cole Caufield (RW, 16th)

RW: Nikita Kucherov (6th), Drake Batherson (16th)

D: Darnell Nurse (1st), Kris Letang (2nd), Tony DeAngelo (7th), Victor Hedman (1st)

G: Connor Hellebuyck (4th), Thatcher Demko (3rd), Linus Ullmark (2nd), Mike Smith (6th)

Right now, my keeper locks are Kucherov, Robertson, and Batherson. I think the best candidates for the other three spots are, in order of how I rank them, Norris, Hellebuyck, Demko, Caufield, DeAngelo, Rust and Copp.

As you can see, goalies are very valuable in our league, as although they account for only 14% of starting line-ups, 38% of our categories are goalie–related and three of the five are volume-based, so workhorse netimnders are especially coveted. And as I write this, Demko and Kellebuyck are ranked second and fourth in start volume and first and third in shots against, so I'm wondering if I should keep both, even though it would leave me with only four skater keepers and I'd likely be the only GM who keeps two goalies.

What do you think about the idea of two out of six keepers being goalies? Who would your keepers be and why?

In this league, keepers comprise a little less than a third of your roster, and there's the complicating factor of round retention. One thing that's clear to me, and I'm glad you seized upon, is it would take a lot to keep a player in rounds one or two, as even though certain players might be first or second round caliber, the reality is enough of these players won't be kept such that they're not viable for you to keep. In other words, when you can get players of similar value via the draft, plus, in turn, use your keeper spots on better bargains, that's what you want to do. In your case, Hedman and Crosby, while perhaps being first round quality players, most definitely are not retainable in that round.

You'll get zero argument from me on your three "locks," as whether or not they're the top three they all clearly make the cut as being among the top six. Yes, Kucherov now seems to be content to be "just" a 100 point player in the regular season, and to save his best for the Stanley Cup playoffs, but he'd merits a keep in that round. As for Robertson and Batherson, they both look to be on the cusp of stardom and are big time bargains in round 16 and, if need be, round 15.

The big question is do you keep two goalies. Hellebuyck has been downright awful, although as you correctly noted his status as a workhorse #1 makes him not only tolerable in your league, but still quite valuable. And let's not forget that after his prior worst season, which was 2016-17, his first as a full time starter, he proceeded to record his best season as an NHLer. Although it feels like he's been around forever, he doesn't even turn 29 until next month, so it's very plausible he bounces back. Demko is doing great, and he and Juuse Saros are seemingly signaling a return to teams giving young netminders 60-65+ appearances, which had fallen out of favor in recent years. I can't see Demko, or Vancouver, getting any worse, so he's likely to be just as great next season.

As for whether to keep both, you said it yourself that 38% of stats are goalie-related, and this would mean goalies comprise 33% of your keepers. So in theory the math works. Plus, Demko went in the fourth round this season despite there not being any surefire signs of what was to come in terms of his workload nor his stats. So if you didn't keep two goalies you'd likely have to use an early pick to get another one, and he might have more question marks than either of these two. So although you have several very solid skater keeper options, I think the best thing to do to position your team to win is keep both Hellebuyck and Demko, and forget about goalies until the mid to late stages of the draft.

Who, then, becomes your last keeper? Defensemen don't make up a large portion of your roster, and DeAngelo isn't a stat stuffer. Plus, as I said above, I worry that the last time he played great and landed a new deal, he was emboldened to act out and, in doing so, almost punched a ticket out of the NHL. Yes, he's one of maybe a dozen rearguards in the NHL who could score 80 points, but his round isn't amazing and, as noted, neither are his multicat stats. He's a non-keep from where I sit.

I'm also not on board with Rust, who likewise isn't a bargain but who also isn't a safe bet to produce numbers the likes of what we're seeing. For all we know this could be a pre-UFA push, and he could become one of a long line of players who disappointed with a fat contract in his pocket. We also can't be certain he stays in Pittsburgh, as although conventional wisdom is he, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang will all take discounts so the Pens can "keep the band together," Rust hasn't been as well paid as those other two and as such might leave to cash in. Long story short, I think he's enough of a risk to not be a keeper in that round.

As for Copp, he's become good enough to be a top sixer; however, it's not clear if he'll ever be able to command the ice time and PP deployment to be more than a 60 point player, if even that. I don't think twice about not keeping him.

The last spot comes down to Norris, Thomas or Caufield. Norris is a rare breed as a shoot first, sniping center. He just might be the fourth center dating back to 1990-91, within their first three seasons and by age 22, to average 0.55 goals per game, with 15+ PPGs and 30+ goals in a campaign, with the other four being Steven Stamkos, Eric Staal, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby. One star, and three superstars; not too shabby. As for Caufield, he's gone from looking outclassed to head of the class, as he's played nearly point per game hockey dating back to mid-February and firing over three SOG per game while also piling on PPPts. All this while defenses are focusing on his line due to the lack of depth of Montreal, making it all the more impressive.

For sure Thomas' best format is points only, not a league like this which counts SOG, HIT and BLK. Also, St. Louis figures to continue to trot out three scoring lines and Thomas is not a lock to be on PP1 even if David Perron and/or Vladimir Tarasenko leave(s), as both of are wings. Still, Thomas is doing what he is without unsustainable metrics. Plus, as Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn age, he'll become even more of a focal point, eventually finding himself on PP1.

I think it boils down to categories, as Norris has far better production across the board, especially in hits and blocks, than Caufield and for sure Thomas. Getting that kind of goal output from a center is a rarity; plus, unlike Thomas, Norris hasn't reached his breakout threshold and thus might only be starting to hit his stride, as are the Sens. While Caufield or Thomas would be rock solid guys to retain and round bargains are well, I'm keeping Norris in this league.

One other option would be to sub in Caufield or Thomas for one of the two goalies, but I still think retaining both Hellebuyck and Demko is better for this team overall. If Caufield or Thomas can't be traded, then they're very tough but ultimately necessary non-retentions. Good luck!

Question #9 (from Sean)

As I write this, I'm just starting my league’s semi-finals after a bye week due to finishing first in the regular season with a 19-2-2 record. But enough flexing – I'm actually thinking ahead to my keeper decisions. It's a 12 team, keep 15 (max 2 goalies), 23 Player (max 4 goalies), H2H league with starting line-ups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 3F, 4D, 2G, plus 8 Bench and 2 IR+. Categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, SHO.

I'm already set on my goalie keepers with Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin. I'm planning on only keeping two defensemen, namely Rasmus Dahlin and Thomas Chabot, as most of my other D are bangers who stuff peripheral categories but aren't really worth keeping as they are relatively easy to redraft or grab off the waiver wire.

The challenge is with my forwards for the remaining 11 spots. The 13 candidates are Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Mathieu Barzal, Jack Hughes, Tomas Hertl, Andrei Svechnikov, Kirill Kaprizov, Patrik Laine, Kevin Fiala, Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak, Patrick Kane, and Timo Meier.

It's worth noting that our league does allow off-season trades. The trade period generally opens when the NHL's free agency starts and runs until late summer, and we officially freeze rosters about a week before our draft. Trades are generally tough to make though as the value of draft picks tends to skyrocket compared to their value in-season, and most GMs figure that any player being offered for trade is likely just going to be dropped if not kept. So although in an ideal world, I would trade a couple players for picks, or facilitate a 2 or 3-for-1 trade with a weaker team to upgrade a keeper, this could be challenging to actually achieve. With all this in mind, which two of the 13 forwards would you not keep? If you have any trades to suggest, what would they be?

First off, I understand it's not easy to find a partner to do a trade that's seen as truly fair to both sides. Yet keep in mind you were the best team in the league during the regular season; so you making a trade might not give off the same impression as would another team – that is, your fellow GMs would be less likely to see your team as trying to unload spare parts via trade, but rather as having an excess of very good assets, hence your first place finish. In turn, they might be more inclined to do a deal – and not just any deal, but a fair deal – than they would with a team that was in the middle to lower portion of the regular season standings.

That having been said, the only name that jumps out as a possible guy to dangle in trade is Pastrnak. He's still seen as having 100+ point value, yet as I noted in a previous column both his 100+ point scoring pace seasons saw him average a PPPt every other game, which is very rare and which, more importantly, he's not come close to duplicating. Plus, either he'll continue to be separated from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, or, even if not, those two will likely start to slow and let's not forget he played with them in 2020-21 and still wasn't superb. If I were you, I'd float Pasta's name out there to see if you can get higher value than he's actually worth. You could offer him and Chabot for an upgrade at D, or you could just do Pasta for a draft pick, or you could package him with one or more of the forwards I'm going to mention below as your likely non-retentions if you don't make any trades.

The non-keeps likely would come from the group of Hertl, Barzal, Pettersson, and Fiala. Hertl signed a deal to stay in San Jose, which actually should hurt him more than help, as the team has cap issues and probably will be worse than average for the near term future. Still, Hertl is quite good in multi-cats and he's a lock for the top line at ES and on the PP. Fiala did his usual thing by struggling out of the gate; but he righted his ship earlier and is going to post by far his best ever scoring output. Still, the Wild seem to be reluctant to put him on PP1. Pettersson has looked superb since his dismal start, and has a realistic ceiling of 90+ points. Barzal is a casualty of the Barry Trotz system, as he went from 85-point rookie phenom to disappointment. His get out of Trotz jail card has a date of 2023-24 at the latest, and he's too talented not to rebound once that happens, at which time he'll still be in his prime.

I think you have to keep Pettersson, because he's too risky to let go. Barzal is perhaps a wise drop, as his numbers look the worst, making him a more viable redraft for next season or for 2023-24. That leaves Hertl and Fiala, and I think their scoring profiles are similar enough that Hertl's better multi-cat output makes him the keep. In the end, you let Barzal and Fiala go. Of course if somehow you feel that would be unwise, I could see keeping one over Chabot, although the concern is 30% of your active line-up consists of defensemen, so not even having two rearguards keepers out of 15 would likely leave you too thin. That, of course, gets you back to the idea of trading Pasta in a deal to get a defensemen, which I'd consider or at least toss out there to see what materializes. You could toss in Fiala or Barzal as a way to sweeten a deal, or one of the other two if you'd prefer to keep Fiala and/or Barzal despite what I noted above. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.