Ramblings: Regular Season Ending; Playoff Draft Tips; Matthews Hits 60 Goals; Stamkos Notches Point #100 (Apr 27)
Alexander MacLean
2022-04-27
As this is my last Ramblings before the end of the regular season, I want to touch a little on championship matches, NHL playoff races, and playoff pools. Best of luck to those of you who still have matches to be decided, and also thank you to all you readers who read, interacted, and bought the Dobber products, you make everything we do here worthwhile. Cheers!
On my end, three of my five head-to-head leagues are still running, and I'm in tight championship matches in two (in the consolation finals in another). I finished on the podium in the other two as well (first in one and second in the other), so overall it was a very successful year for me.
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The best part is still to come though. I have three favourite parts of the hockey season: opening night, the World Juniors, and the first round of the playoffs. The first round might just be the peak of it all in my opinion as we have excellent teams butting heads over and over, they aren't exhausted from at least a dozen games of grinding, every game means so much, and there is always a game on in the evenings.
To add an extra layer to it for us, we all love getting into a playoff pool or two, and as unpredictable as the playoffs can be there are a few constants when it comes to how to navigate playoff pools. The strategy in playoff pools is really quite simple: pick the best players on the best teams. Got it? Great. Well so does everyone else. That's why we're here to give you a little edge. The biggest asset you have is Dobber's playoff draft kit which will walk you through all the steps to get you set up for your draft.
On top of the draft kits though, picking the right teams is a bit of an art. The regular season records can almost get thrown out the window, and you do want to take a lot of other factors into account. Some key things I consider include: who has the better special teams, is there a goalie that can steal a game or two (or the opposite), how the styles matchup between the two teams, and what the most recent games showed (not just wins/losses, but cold streaks, effort levels, injuries, etc).
Sometimes you also just get a feeling. I picked Columbus in all of my brackets and pools when they were up against Tampa in the first round after Tampa's incredible 126-point regular season. I also had a good feeling about the eight-seed LA Kings in 2012, and they ended up taking home the Cup. Don't ignore the gut feelings this time of year.
The couple of guidelines that I try to follow when drafting for a playoff pool include not selecting players from more than four teams (two from each conference), and ensuring that I have enough players on those teams that I won't be beat out at the end by someone who is looking at those same teams. That means you have to keep track your friends as the draft goes on, and if you are taking Avalanche players, then you want to at least match value with the other GM trying hardest for Avalanche players. Balance that in the first couple of rounds for your top two teams, and then let the flow of the draft dictate your second two, and grab the top players from a few overlooked teams (more on that later).
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Over on the forums, we currently have a playoff draft going. I had the second overall pick, which can be a difficult spot to be. Personally, I prefer to actually pick later in playoff drafts, as then you can stack your first two players on one team. With an early pick, instead you want to pick one of the best players on a team that you're more certain will at least make it to the final four.
In our draft, Aleksander Barkov went first overall, and then I took Nathan MacKinnon at number two. The Avalanche should be facing an easier opponent in round one than anyone in the Eastern Conference, but I can't fault any of the first number of picks that we saw between Auston Matthews, Johnny Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, and others. Coming back around in round two, a few of the next Avalanche players had gone, and I considered Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri. However, they were both injured of late, and there were safer options. The top options were mostly off the board, but from the Panthers, only Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau had been selected, leaving Claude Giroux still on the board. I ended up taking Panthers in back to back picks, which keeps my options from getting too diluted.
I'll likely stick with Colorado, Florida, and maybe one other team, dependent on who is left on the board. With the last few picks though, taking a fourth-liner or fourth defenceman on Florida or Colorado may only get you a handful of points even if they make it to the finals. Instead, look for a team that isn't expected to go far, but isn't picked over. Last year for me it was the Predators, and I was able to snag their whole top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene. They may not have been around for too long, but they combined for 12 points in four games. These picks, if they do win a round (and in the NHL that happens fairly frequently for lower seeds), then you squeaked out some great picks in the last few rounds. On the flip side, those fourth liners also aren't guaranteed to make it out of round one either.
This year I would be looking at whichever of Pittsburgh, Washington, or Boston that your league mates are ignoring, along with either Los Angeles (matched up against Edmonton who struggles to get out of round one) or Nashville (riding Juuse Saros). There will be some options late in your drafts to stack on a very reasonable team with a good chance to advance. Just make sure your teams aren't playing each other in round one. You don't win playoff pools by hedging your bets.
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In the meantime, as we lead up to the beginning of the playoffs, there are still some championships in the balance. Two of my leagues are done, but I still have four running until the last game of the season. After tonight's games, there are two jam packed days on Thursday and Friday before the season was initially scheduled to end, then there's one last game remaining with the Jets and the Kraken that will have zero playoff implications, meaning we will know the final seeding as late as April 29th, while still-running fantasy leagues won't be able to crown championships until the 1st.
In the one league I have still running that has weekly adds, I am in a tight championship battle. I'm going to save two of my four adds for the matchup for that final day to try and target a specific category. With there being three busy days and two off days, there wasn't an add/drop that made sense to burn an add on for streaming. It also allows for some flexibility if I need a goalie add as well as a skater, or if there is an injury that comes up, as there are plenty this time of year.
Brennan's Injury Ward will have all the season-ending updates for you later today.
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Onto the games:
Steven Stamkos scored point #100 (and finished the game at 102), with two goals and two assists on the night. He's up to 22 points in his last seven games! That is the kind of performance that can win you a fantasy championship.
Stammer's previous career high was 98 points, and this was only the second time he had topped 95 points in the last decade. It just makes you wonder, like with Sidney Crosby, how much did we miss of the prime of a superstar's career?
At 32-years-old, this is a definite sell high offseason on Stamkos, though if you are shopping him, don't feel like you have to move him because he can still produce and will still have excellent seasons ahead. I would only move him if I get the equivalent value of an 85- to 90-point player.
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We now have the first 60-goal scorer since that amazing Stamkos season a decade ago. Auston Matthews potted goal #59 and 60 against Detroit. It now becomes a lot easier for the team to sit him in the final days after reaching that plateau. The playoffs are the only thing that matters now, so it shouldn't shock anyone if that's the case.
Now we watch Mitch Marner chase 100 points. He seems a little more likely to play in the last few games (and a little more healthy overall).
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One of my bargain targets in cap leagues for next year is going to be Erik Haula. The Bruins' second line centre has 19 points in his last 18 games (after a goal last night), and that scoring uptick coincides with when he was bumped up to line-two full-time. He has one year left on his current deal paying him $2.375 million per season, and should be a good bet to put up at least a 65-point pace when lined up with Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak.
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Artemi Panarin is one of the few players that can regularly take over a game, and it's one of the reasons that I will be taking the Rangers to beat what will likely either end up being the Penguins or the Capitals – the better bet is that one of them can knock off Carolina and their patched-up goaltending.
Unfortunately, Panarin left the game midway through and there's no word yet on what the ailment may be. Keep an eye on news out of NY as Andrew Copp also missed the second half of the game. It sounds as though both could have returned if this game meant more, but they were held out as a precaution. It’s always tough this time of year.
Sticking in the Metro, Alex Ovechkin missed last night's game and is day-to-day. Likelihood is that he will be playing in the playoffs, but you wonder if he's 100% at this point. T.J. Oshie also hobbled off after blocking shot. He did return to play, but he may get some rest between now and the first round.
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Jason Robertson hit 40 goals this year, and after starting a little slow, it’s not out of the question to think he can hit 50 as early as next season. However, the quieter 40-goal season and maybe an even better shot at 50 next year in my mind comes from Alex DeBrincat.
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Thomas Chabot returned to the lineup catching me off guard in a couple of leagues. He was supposed to be done for the year, but he returned with four games left on the Sens' schedule. Chabot scored last night,
That's a good note for next year, if you have IR spots then make sure you're not dropping players too early, as they do return early more often than not. It also means you need to scan your waiver wire as there was one (one-year) league where I was able to scoop up Chabot.
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The Preds and Flames do not like each other. It's a highly possible playoff matchup at this point and oh boy would I love to see a seven-game series between the two of them.
Unfortunately for the Preds, they not only lost last night’s game, but Juuse Saros was injured as well. David Rittich has shown in limited action that he can’t carry this team, so hopes of a run lie squarely on Saros’ shoulders. That being said, if Saros can’t go, then Connor Ingram should be given a shot to try to carry this team. I’ve mentioned him a few times over the last year or two in this space, and he would give the Predators a much better shot in the playoffs than Rittich would. Maybe not actionable intel for playoff pools, but food for thought overall anyways.
In the meantime, the Preds passed 60-majors for the first time by any team in ten years. If you need some late season PIMs, then don't hesitate to look into some Nashville options. Between Tanner Jeannot, Mark Borowiecki, recent call-up Mathieu Olivier, and many others, there are lots of viable options there for the end of the year.
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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
Cheers!