Fantasy Impact: Barry Trotz – Fired!

Dobber

2022-05-09

The New York Islanders have announced that Head Coach Barry Trotz has been relieved of his duties.

After a 37-35-10 record and a disturbing inability to get his team to put pucks in the net, Barry Trotz has been fired as coach of the Islanders.

It's a new era of scoring across the league, and the Isles are still in 2010. The team scored just 231 goals, good for 24th in the league. They were 30th in shots on goal and had the second lowest total time on the power play, with a PP that at 21.6% was slightly above average.

This move can only be good in terms of offense from the skaters. In 2019-20, the Isles had Mathew Barzal (72) and Brock Nelson (65) with a full-season pace of more than 53 points. In 2020-21, only Barzal (67) was above that full-season mark. This past season, again Barzal (66) and Nelson (67) had that pace. Every other skater produced at a sub-53-point pace. A lot of players stand to gain here.

Fantasy Players Impacted: Mat Barzal could really take off under the right coach. He had 85 points as a rookie and hasn't touched 73 (pace) since. He turns 25 soon and enters his prime – is 90 in the cards?

With Brock Nelson, I also wonder where his ceiling is. He'll be 31 in the fall, but he still has a couple of productive years left (depending on the new coach and how he is used). Is he another David Perron who seems to get better as he heads into his 30s? I cautiously think that under the right situation he can build on the career season that he just had. Though his goal totals will decline from 37 – his 21.6 S% is way too high.

Noah Dobson broke out last season, tallying 51 points. With everyone around him getting a bit of a boost, it stands to reason that Dobson will pile on some more apples.

Anders Lee had a rough start to the season returning from injury, but a stronger second half and he should return to his 55-point ways. Higher, if he plays with Barzal under the new coach.

Anthony Beauvillier was used a lot as a shutdown forward under Trotz the last three years. However in 2021-22 he was given more offensive minutes. The decline in production boggles the mind. Perhaps just a fresh start is needed? A new coach can only help. After three consecutive years of increasing production, and seeing him end 2020-21 with 35 points in 44 games – seeing the decline was unexpected. The fancy stats do not indicate an uptick is coming based on puck luck, and they do indicate that he was much weaker in all areas of the game last season, looking specifically at expected goals and possession numbers. Is Beauvillier truly a 45-point checker, or is he actually a 70-point scorer? We'll find out under a new coach. Let's just hope he gets himself ready with a strong workout regimen in the offseason.

Oliver Wahlstrom: Is the leash finally going to come off the budding power forward? The healthy scratches will probably stop, at least. But I think we see him cross the 40-point threshold as he takes the next step.

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Kieffer Bellows had his ice time carefully monitored and spent more than his fair share of time in the press box. Not great for development. But now he has a new coach he can impress, and likely a longer leash. His points-per-60 was fourth on the entire team (2.1). A shuffling of linemates and steady playing time is really all this guy needs to breach 45 points.

Ryan Pulock has had plenty of chances to become the power-play quarterback. Yes, at even strength he's been their shutdown guy, so he's been held back there. But on the power play he had his time to shine and he couldn't do it. With 345 NHL games under his belt, his highest production pace has been 42 points. A new coach will keep him as a secondary PP guy behind Dobson, though perhaps his ES numbers will rise. Some defensemen take 400 games to get going, so I'm intrigued on Pulock – just not "50-point" intrigued, more like 45.

And as for Josh Bailey – well, he's Josh Bailey. Other than the big contract year alongside John Tavares, you know what you're getting with Josh. No matter the coach, we've seen it all.

Ilya Sorokin is an elite goaltender. Barry Trotz makes bad goalies average, average goalies good, and good goalies great. But Sorokin is above all that, because he is elite. The furthest I'll go here is that instead of being a Top 3 fantasy goalie in terms of the numbers – he may 'slip' to fourth or fifth.

Since moving out a defensive coach helps all players, I'll hone in on my favorite three, in order:

Top 3 Fantasy Players This Helps (aka The Killer B's)

  1. Barzal
  2. Beauvillier
  3. Bellows

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