Bets and Props: Carolina’s Home-Ice Dominance and Draisaitl’s Elite Production
Shawn Wilken
2022-05-26
After how these two series got started, who would have thought that the New York Rangers would be heading back to Carolina with a 2-2 series tie? Or that the Edmonton Oilers would have the Calgary Flames on the ropes? Hockey is a funny sport and momentum can certainly swing the pendulum in either team's favor, seemingly overnight. It makes things interesting as an observer, but completely dreadful if you have money on the game and are trying to decide who's going to bring you a maximum return.
Taking a peek at tonight's two matchups, there are a few interesting factors at play. Taking into account all of the team's home and away records, and how well they've played rebounding from a loss, you'd think it's a walk in the park to determine outright winners. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Throw everything you know out the window and start digging into the underlying numbers and analytics that provide you with deeper insight, and you may find some intriguing nuggets of knowledge.
Fear not, the idea of the game is to make as much money as possible while risking as little of it on big gambles. Let's focus on what makes sense and tell your gut that it's time to take a backseat for this one.
Gold Pick
Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers– Pick: Hurricanes
The momentum is heavily in the favor of the Rangers heading into Game 5, and for good reason. After their top-six was stunned, and only one puck beat Antti Raanta in the first two games, there was an uneasy feeling in the air in New York. Fortunately for them, Carolina has trouble carrying over their home-ice success into enemy territory. Despite a strong defensive effort, New York was relentless at puck management and cycling and gave their fans something to cheer about. They scored twice on the powerplay and pumped Raanta for six goals, and once more into an empty net.
The Rangers were one of the better offensive teams in the first round, pumping the Penguins for 28 goals in seven games. Players like Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, and Artemi Panarin were the stars the team expected them to be, and defensemen Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba were undeniably fantastic as well. Sure, Igor Shesterkin struggled, but he's managed to turn things around against the Hurricanes. The problem now becomes their odds of defeating a team that is flawless on home ice. The Bruins couldn't do it despite looking like the better team on most nights, and the Rangers have been reduced to one goal in two games.
Silver Pick
Leon Draisaitl for Over 1.5 points @ +125
Pardon me, but how is a player who has registered 13 points in four games against the Calgary Flames a +125 going into tonight? Leon Draisaitl may be second-best to Connor McDavid's magical run, but Draisaitl is having himself a phenomenal series too. Factoring in secondary scoring from players like Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Kailer Yamamoto, the Flames don't know what to do anymore. The Oilers are rolling out waves of offensive domination, overwhelming Calgary's defense and destroying Jacob Markstrom's save percentage and goals against this series. This is a matchup that players like McDavid and Draisaitl chew up and spit out, so go ahead and take this bet. It isn't much of a gamble by any stretch when you take into consideration that the lowest amount of points he's registered against Calgary is three.
Bronze Pick
Edmonton Oilers @ Calgary Flames (Over/under 6.5) – Pick: Over
I originally had the Flames edging out the Oilers in seven and while that's still a possibility, the reality of it is quickly burning out. How the Oilers have scored 20 goals in four games is silliness and are numbers you'd expect from the 1980s era when goaltenders came out of their crease by a couple of feet and could barely play a butterfly style. This kind of production shouldn't be possible in this era, especially not against someone like Markstrom, who was absolutely brilliant during the regular season. Yet, here we are. The Flames are one loss away from being eliminated and the only way to prevent that is to defeat the Oilers in three consecutive games. You'd think that doing that against a goaltender that conceded a goal from the opposing team's blue line would be a cakewalk, but you also have to prevent the other team from scoring 4-5 goals per game.
You'd be crazy not to go with the over for this one, as the two teams have combined for 11 goals or more in three of four games. Both teams had two players hit the 100-point plateau during the regular season, so it was expected that this series would be a high-scoring affair. What nobody envisioned was the complete collapse of two goaltenders who played exceptionally well in Round 1.
Side Bets
New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – Pick: Hurricanes Point Spread (-1.5, +155)
Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer @ +145
Sebastian Aho Anytime Goalscorer @ +140