The Carolina Hurricanes had the run of play in Game 5 and skated out with a 3-1 win over the New York Rangers to take a 3-2 series lead. Igor Shesterkin had a very solid game but the skaters struggled to generate much, if any, sustained pressure outside of power plays. That has been the case for a lot of teams visiting Carolina these playoffs, though.

Seth Jarvis had a very slick assist on Teuvo Teravainen's game-winning power-play goal in the second period, and then had to leave after taking a Ryan Strome stick to the face (on a follow through). A tough game for the kid, but he just keeps impressing as the playoffs get deeper.

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It has been a couple weeks since they were eliminated but the Minnesota Wild not advancing to the second round kind of stung for me. I thought they had the depth all over the roster to challenge all the top teams in the Western Conference, Colorado included. They were unceremoniously dumped in six games by St. Louis, and now they have a lot of tough cap decisions to make, namely Kevin Fiala. He is due for a big raise and because of their cap crunch – involving the bought-out contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise – they will need to rely on a lot of cheap contracts. Those involve not only guys already on the roster like Matt Boldy and Ryan Hartman, but guys that should push for a spot in training camp like Calen Addison and Marco Rossi.

To that end, it's probably worth looking at the seasons that Addison and Rossi just had, and what they each might be able to bring to the fantasy game in 2022-23. Let's start with the blue liner.

Sometimes, it seems there are guys who thrive in the AHL that seem like they should be in the NHL contributing, but their team doesn't see it the same way. The name that comes to mind immediately for me is Ville Heinola in Winnipeg. I thought there would be a chance he would have been on the roster for the shortened 2021 season, and that was two regular seasons ago. He has a grand total of 25 NHL games and hasn't made an impact in the top league. We could say the same about Addison.

The 22-year-old blue liner has been very good in the minors, posting 58 points in 77 games across three seasons. His last couple years have seen his shots per game hovering around 2.5, a good sign of his involvement in the offence. Deeper stats aren't as widely available for the minors, but he finished second in points/game among defencemen two seasons ago (min. 30 games played) and fourth in 2021-22 (min. 40 games played) so it's clear he's at the top of the AHL class for production. He has nothing left to prove there, at least offensively.

And he did spend *some* time with the NHL club this year. It was just 15 games, but according to HockeyViz, those 15 games saw a big jump in offensive generation for the Wild when Addison was on the ice:

We won't stuff this article with visuals, but the defensive side of things were about average (if not above average). Again, this is far too small a sample for definitive conclusions, but it seems we have yet another data point going in the right direction. We have great AHL production, we have a good (and small) play-driving sample in the NHL; what else could we use?

Well, there's a prospect analyst I follow on Twitter named Byron Bader. His website 'Hockey Prospecting' is where his model analyzing drafted players can be found. Simply put, his model looks at where a player is in their development curve, how they've performed at various levels, and gives us the chances they'll be an NHLer, a star, and which players had comparable production at comparable levels of hockey. Not that the comps mean "this guy will play like that guy" but just that the two had similar stats at a given point in time. Clear as lake water? Great. This is how Addison's looks:

That looks… it looks pretty good. It seems Mr. Bader's model thinks not only will Addison be a full-time NHLer (and probably soon), but stands a very good chance at being a star for Minnesota if he does end up a full-time NHLer.

That's where things stand on Addison from my perspective (short of doing a video analysis of his season). I've always been impressed when watching him play his short stints at the NHL level. Beyond that, his AHL production is excellent, his NHL underlying stats (in just 15 games) looked great, and there's at least one prospect model that thinks he could be a breakout performer for the Wild very soon. There are many different things we can point to as to why Addison should have success in very short order at the NHL level. The problem is whether A) we're wrong or B) the team doesn't see things the same way. Many pro teams will not play a defenceman if they think he'll be a defensive liability, whether they're right or wrong about that assertion. It seems that's the final step for Addison, and we'll see what he can do come September. It is worth noting they have six regulars signed for next year, and that doesn't include the possibility of re-signing Jacob Middleton.

He could be a very good fantasy asset in short order, though. Suppose what we've discussed comes to fruition and he becomes a successful puck-mover for Minnesota in 2022-23. Who, really, is holding him back from prime PP1 minutes? They had a rotating cast of Spurgeon, Brodin, Dumba, and Goligoski all season long. Jared Spurgeon got the most looks, but the PP struggled a lot at times and that's what led to the constant turnover. If Addison can assert himself, why can't he run the power play?

It is a lot of ifs and maybes, but I don't think Addison is far from being a top-50 fantasy defenceman as soon as 2022-23. If he can stand out in training camp, he could get those prime production minutes, even if he's not playing 22 minutes a night overall.

What about Marco Rossi?

First and foremost, we have to remind readers of his COVID issues. The 9^th overall pick from 2022 missed the 2020-21 season, at any level (outside of one game), because of complications arising from COVID. At a time when hockey players were in tough for development, he missed an entire season of development just recuperating from the heart issues that came from COVID. He is still just 20 years old (September birthday) and missing his age-19 season because of serious health issues should always be kept at the forefront.

The Austrian forward did return to the ice for the 2021-22 season and did so in very productive fashion. I think a lot of people would have been happy just to see him regain some semblance of his old form and put in a full, healthy season. He finished tied for the Iowa Wild's team lead with 53 points, averaging about 2.5 shots per game. Not super-elite totals, but considering where he was a year ago at this time, a successful year. Iowa wasn't even a good team, missing the playoffs and scoring the fifth-fewest goals in the league (well, tied for fifth fewest).

Now, because of the time missed, we really don't have a lot else to go off of. He has just two games at the NHL level and that's basically useless as a sample, even if we were just going by the eye test. The prospect model mentioned earlier from Byron Bader is still very high on him – higher than Addison – but that doesn't mean stardom at the next level is guaranteed.  

There is also the question of where he might fit, should he get to the NHL in October. Assuming Fiala has played his last game for Minnesota, Rossi could slide to the wing and take that spot. The problem, of course, is that Fiala is probably the team's second-best forward and sliding into his spot means he's gone, which would hurt Rossi's prospects. Even if Fiala sticks around, are they going to run a line of Boldy-Rossi-Fiala for 82 games? It seems unlikely.

I am personally still high on Rossi and think he could be an all-star within a few years. Maybe a full offseason of training gets him where he needs to be, but there are more roadblocks to him being a top-end fantasy performer than there are for Addison. That is, assuming they both make the team in October, which isn't a guarantee itself.

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Speaking of prospects that could make an impact soon, I noticed Buffalo's AHL affiliate was knocked out of the playoffs. Their goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was injured for their final series, effectively ending his season.

At this point, Luukkonen is not a lock to be the goalie of the future. Heck, letting go of Linus Ullmark, their supposed goalie of the present, seemed to indicate all their goalie plans were up in the air. To UPL's credit, he has just 60 total AHL games with over half of them (35) coming this past season. Is he still the goalie of the future? I guess we'll find out in September, but this is someone to keep an eye on. It isn't as if there's stiff competition for either the starting or backup job in Buffalo. Some people are clamouring for a 40+ year-old Craig Anderson to return. That's where things are right now.

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Speaking of Buffalo, this tweet from Cap Friendly caught my attention:

We have rolled the website over to the 2022-23 season!

Upper limit: $82.5M

Tampa Bay Lightning have the highest current cap hit
Buffalo Sabres have the most cap spacehttps://t.co/3B8UOBLIyt pic.twitter.com/EO4t1P3cOy

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) May 26, 2022

This was a team that seemed to come together in the second half of the season, going 22-20-5 in the team's final 47 games. Alex Tuch stepped in admirably, they started to develop depth scoring, and the duo of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power looked mostly great. Could they be an attractive offseason destination for some key UFAs? They'll have lots of space for a big signing or two.