Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The 2022 playoffs have shown us the best of Filip Chytil. The 2017 first-round pick entered Game 2 with five goals over his last three games playing on the recently-formed Kid Line with fellow first-round picks Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere. These three players have all been burdened with the high expectations of being first-round picks – particularly the latter two as higher first-round picks. Because the Rangers already have many more established options on their forward lines, ice time has been an issue for all three. Kakko was the only one of the three to average more than 15 minutes per game during this past regular season.

Chytil is certainly helping his cause for additional playing time. Yet if the Rangers can’t find a way to better fit him in, he is at least building his trade value. For example, here in Vancouver, Chytil’s name has popped up in rumors as part of a package for J.T. Miller. Acquiring the former Ranger would be a major step in the team’s quest for a Stanley Cup. (june4)

2. Canucks fans can’t be totally blamed if they’re not sold on Chytil, though. After all, he has posted the following point totals over the last four seasons: 23, 23, 22, 22. It’s understood that his games played totals have been 75, 60, 42, and 67 – not really full seasons, but still not enough for fantasy teams (1% rostered in Yahoo). Even though he has been more noticeable during the playoffs, Chytil’s first 12 playoff games consisted of two goals and an assist. In other words, he’s never had a full-season pace of more than 43 points over his four full NHL seasons. The recency effect is something to be aware of.

If Chytil isn’t traded, there could still be a top-6 opportunity for him with the Rangers next season. Ryan Strome is set to become a UFA, so the Rangers might have to move on from him. If Lafreniere and Kakko can become anything close to the future stars they were expected to be, the Rangers could have a productive scoring line for years. Chytil is only 22, so there’s still plenty of time to build on that. (june4)

3. The Boston Bruins haven’t had a very long offseason, yet it has already managed to go from bad to worse. From Kevin Dupont (@GlobeKPD): More Bruins surgeries today: Grzelcyk, shoulder – out til early Nov. McAvoy, shoulder  out til early Dec. Reilly, ankle – should be OK for training camp.

Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk were 1-2 in terms of total power-play ice time and power-play points among Bruins defencemen last season. McAvoy in particular is a major loss, as he is their best defenceman. He far and away led Bruins defencemen in points (56) and all Bruins players in ice time (24:40). Assuming he recovers in time from his own surgery, Mike Reilly should benefit early on in terms of potential power-play time. Trade deadline acquisition Hampus Lindholm could also be used on the power play, although he was brought on to be more of a shutdown defender.

As for the Bruins, they might have a difficult time catching up in the standings with all of McAvoy, Grzelcyk, and Brad Marchand expected to miss the start of the season. Also, Patrice Bergeron‘s status for next season is still unknown. There was a major gap between the playoff teams and non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference this season, so perhaps this creates a little more parity as teams like Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa attempt to take the next step in their rebuilds.

4. If McAvoy returns on schedule in early December, he will miss approximately 20 games. Assuming a full season, he would play 62 games. If he maintains his current production, McAvoy would be projected for around 44 points. Knocking off a game missed here or there for other reasons and a dip from potentially reduced scoring options, we could round down to about 40 points.

With that potential production, McAvoy would be drafted outside of my Top 100. Draft him sometime after that when remaining defencemen start to thin out (similar to what I mentioned with Tom Wilson yesterday). Then when you can move him to IR, grab someone like Lindholm or Reilly. Or if you have McAvoy on your keeper team, consider adding Lindholm or Reilly as a handcuff. (june4)

5. As for Marchand, he has undergone surgery on both hips, which is expected to sideline him for the first month or two of the regular season. That surgery could put his season debut anywhere between early to late November, meaning that he will miss approximately 15 games. That works out to 67 games that he will be available, which doesn’t include any further injuries or suspensions. Keep in mind that he missed nine games due to suspensions last season, which is just a part of being Brad Marchand.  

Marchand’s production dipped from 1.30 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 1.14 PTS/GP in 2021-22. Let’s say he maintains a 1.1 PTS/GP pace, even at age 34. Over 67 games, that works out to around 73 points. That’s certainly rosterable in just about any league, but it’s far from the elite-level 100+ point pace that he’s produced at over his previous four seasons. That’s also assuming regular center Patrice Bergeron returns. If Bergeron retires, Marchand could be in for a further dip in production.

Obviously, you don’t have to make your keeper decision on Marchand today, but circumstances aren’t shaping up well for Marchand. That being said, it doesn’t mean you should sell all your Marchand shares for pennies on the dollar. His scoring hasn’t fallen off a cliff, and he will return at some point during the season. Also keep in mind that Marchand has three seasons left on a contract with a cap hit of just over $6 million (still ideal for cap leagues), so he still has significant remaining value. (june3)

6. Elsewhere, Tom Wilson is expected to need 6-8 months to recover from a surgery for a torn ACL. As Dobber said in a recent Ramblings, that puts Wilson’s availability at around Christmas. Wilson would miss approximately 30 games, which would cut significantly into his season production. Wilson scored a career-high 24 goals and 52 points in 2021-22, so his total production should be scaled back to about 35 points next season.

After racking up over 100 penalty minutes over his first six seasons, Wilson has ranged between 90 to 100 penalty minutes in each of his previous three seasons. He has also been credited with 200+ hits in seven of his last eight seasons. Although his hit and penalty minute totals have declined somewhat in recent seasons as the scoring has increased, Wilson has incredible value in bangers leagues.

In single-season leagues, Wilson is worth a late-round pick and IR stash, as he could turn into a second-half difference maker. The most ideal point to pick Wilson in fantasy draft would be when replacement-level players are being chosen. In other words, you’ll also have an easy opportunity to add a hot waiver-wire commodity once Wilson moves to IR. (june3)

7. Darcy Kuemper is a UFA this offseason and it remains to be seen whether the Avalanche can afford him. Next season, Colorado’s goaltending could easily be Pavel Francouz with a $2 million cap hit and another small-to-medium-ticket option. Assuming Kuemper (upper body) is out longer, Francouz could leverage a strong playoff run into a bigger workload than he had this season (21 GP total). The Avalanche are the kind of team that carries play enough that they simply need a dependable goalie – not a superhuman that has to steal games. (june3)

8. Darryl Sutter is your 2021-22 Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s top coach. I’m not going to quibble on this one, as Sutter took a team that missed the playoffs last season to a division championship. Sutter’s press conferences make me giggle, too.

Winning the Jack Adams was once considered (but maybe still is) the kiss of death in terms of job security. So far, all of the last three winners (Sutter, Rod Brind’Amour, Bruce Cassidy) are still employed by their teams. It would have been four if Barry Trotz wasn’t let go earlier this offseason. I wonder if that’s the longest streak ever. (june3)

9. The Montreal Canadiens made it official on Wednesday by signing interim head coach Martin St. Louis to a three-year contract. He took over in February from Dominique Ducharme and seemed to revitalize the team offensively. I saw a good breakdown from Jack Han – former coach in the Leafs organization who now does consulting work – about how the new coach changed the team’s offensive attack through the neutral zone.

Instead of just dumping and chasing, they’re adding a defenceman to the rush to give them more layers, which helps zone entries, which helps sustain pressure. There is a reason Nick Suzuki went from 1.86 expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (on-ice) under Ducharme through the first 40-some games (and 1.45 actual goals per 60 minutes) to 2.47 expected goals/60 (and 3.3 actual goals/60) under St. Louis. Not having Suzuki and Caufield dump and chase, rather giving them more playmaking options, reaped obvious results.

That persisted through the whole team. Montreal was 28^th by expected goals at 5-on-5 in 2021-22 under Ducharme, and 31^st in actual goals scored. Under St. Louis, they rose to 17^th by expected goals generated, and 12^th by actual goals. The offence had a big turnaround, and I would say the most important thing St. Louis did was get Suzuki and Caufield – their two young stars – on the path to high-end offensive performance. (june2)

10. An update on Frederik Andersen‘s injury: He won’t need surgery, so he should be just fine for the start of the 2022-23 season. Speaking of which, the Carolina Hurricanes were bounced in Game 7 of the second round by the New York Rangers. It was a successful season by many measures, but this team could look much different in 2022-23.

From Cap Friendly, they have Ethan Bear and Tony DeAngelo as restricted free agents on the back-end, with Ian Cole and Brendan Smith as unrestricted free agents. At least two of those players were everyday defencemen. Up front, both Martin Necas and Steven Lorentz are RFAs, with Max Domi, Nino Niederreiter, Derek Stepan, and Vincent Trocheck as UFAs. At least four of those forwards were everyday players for them. That means they have no fewer than six guys who need new contracts and with less than $20M in cap space, and those guys will eat most, or all, of that. We will have to see who they keep around, who they trade, and who they let walk. In that sense, let’s look at this team, holes they need to fill, and what their upside could be for next year. (june2)

11. The most glaring spot of need is at center. Trocheck is a very capable 2C but he’s due for a new contract and will likely get a raise on his $4.75M AAV from his last one. Last offseason, Mikael Granlund signed for 4x$5M AAV while Phillip Danault signed for six years with an AAV of $5.5M. Trocheck plays in all three phases and is productive. It seems the Danault contract is a good starting point for what to expect for Trocheck, and it’s a wonder if the ‘Canes want to pay it. They still have Jordan Staal for another year, and extended Jesperi Kotkaniemi for eight years at $4.8M per season. They could realistically go with a center mix of Sebastian Aho-Staal-Kotkaniemi-Stepan and let Trocheck walk. That would effectively slide Kotkaniemi into the Trocheck role, something he just doesn’t seem ready for at this point. There were some comments from Trocheck that makes it seem like he really wants to return, but until pen is put to paper, it’s TBD. (june2)

12. It looks like the Blues' forward depth is going to be very similar to last season, as David Perron is their only notable free agent up front, and looking to return. Perron has only ever signed contracts with STL, despite playing for five different NHL teams, so there’s no reason to think that would change now. 

Keeping Perron on an excellent two-way line (with Ryan O'Reilly and Brandon Saad) that saw the toughest competition and the most defensive minutes on the team, while still keeping a positive Corsi rating, will be huge for the continued production of lines two and three. (june1)

13. The second line with Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Vladimir Tarasenko was given the best offensive deployment on the team, and though I said above that the Blues don’t have a 100-point scorer, they may have a 90-point guy or two. Thomas just passed his breakout threshold earlier in the year, and he put up 46 points in the 41 games since that point, an easy 92-point pace.

Tarasenko also paced for 90 points on the season, but that was a career high for him, and his underlying numbers were a little elevated across the board this year. He’s shown in the past that he is more of a 75- to 80-point player. Meanwhile on the other wing, with a suspension along with some minor ailments to start the year, Pavel Buchnevich took a while to get acclimatized to the St. Louis system. Once he did though, he was hugely reliable, and he put up 28 points in his last 20 games. All of his numbers look a little more reasonable than Tarasenko’s though the name value isn’t quite there meaning he should be cheaper to acquire in the offseason or at the draft table. (june1)

14. Getting out from behind the shadow of the big guns in Colorado may be the best thing for Andre Burakovsky, as his numbers dipped a little this season despite seeing more ice time. As a free agent, the team signing him will likely have a spot on the top line for him, and with some further increased ice time on top of a rebound of his underlying numbers, Burakovsky could be primed for a career year. (june1)

15. Says Alex MacLean: How long until Cale Makar notches 100 points in a season? It’s a matter of when, not if, now. Roman Josi gave 100 points a run this year, and he did so playing a higher percentage of time on the penalty kill. Makar is also playing on a higher-powered offence, and though he didn’t factor into as much of his team’s offence this year as Josi did, he has the talent to. When that inevitably takes a jump, Makar is going to be cruising past 100 points by game 75. (june1)

Dobber's take: When I see the hype surrounding McDavid vs. MacKinnon I get it. Connor McDavid is the best player in the world and Nathan MacKinnon is Top 3. People will argue Auston Matthews, but regardless – there’s your three, right? Wait a minute, what about Leon Draisaitl? Some might chime in with that. What I find strange is that nobody is speaking up for the true No.2. Cale Makar! 

Makar is the McDavid of defencemen. MacKinnon only beat him by six points and he’s a defenceman! Makar’s arcade-level moves are just as sweet as MacKinnon’s and McDavid’s. How long before a series like this gets billed as McDavid vs. Makar? How long before MacKinnon gets pushed aside in the billing the Evgeni Malkin has for so many years in Pittsburgh? (may30)

16. Congratulations to Carey Price, the winner of the 2022 Masterton Trophy. Price battled his way back into the Montreal lineup late in the season after undergoing offseason knee surgery and spending time in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. Hopefully he is doing well and is back in the Canadiens lineup next season. (june4)

Earlier in the week, Eric Engels (@EricEngels) tweeted: Kent Hughes says Carey Price saw a specialist in PIT after the season, but still no clarity on his situation. Said, ideally, they would know if he can't play by July 13 (opening of free agency).

It certainly sounds like it’s possible that Carey Price doesn’t play in the NHL again, and ideally for Montreal, they would like to know whether to expect him on the ice at all next season or not. Jake Allen‘s value will be greatly affected, though regardless of Price’s status, the Habs need to bring in a better third goalie than the carousel of options they ran through last season. Having a full season of Martin St. Louis at the helm of the ship should help too though.

With the poor showing last season, the possible large volume, and the improved team in front of him, Allen actually may make out as one of the better bargain goalies at the draft table in the fall. (june1)

17. It might not feel like it, but Miro Heiskanen set a career-best in points this year with 36 (in just 70 games). This means he’s paced for over 40 points/82 games in three straight seasons now. He has 98 points in his last 193 regular season games, or roughly 42 points/82 games in that three-year span. That might not seem superb, but he did that in his age-20, age-21, and age-22 seasons.

It seems like he’s a grizzled veteran at this point and he doesn’t turn 23 until July. We should also note that just 29 of those 98 points came with the man advantage, or a shade under 30%. For reference, Adam Fox is at 42.3% for his career, with Cale Makar at 41.7% and Quinn Hughes at 46.7%. Other young star blue liners in their early-20s are getting lots of power-play time on the top unit, and Heiskanen is not. That persisted in 2021-22 where Heiskanen had a shade over 150 total PP minutes (well, at 5-on-4 anyway), and just 28 of them on the top unit. Conversely, teammate John Klingberg had roughly 195 PP minutes and 167 of them were on the top PP unit. The top PP unit scored nearly 10 goals per 60 minutes; the second unit was closer to 6.5. Not bad, in reality, but the gap means a lot to a defenceman. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Heiskanen] (may31)

18. He is a little bit older, but at the age of 25 (he’ll be 26 early in 2023), Thomas Chabot is in his prime for production. He had an injury-ravaged 2021-22, but still showed why he’ll be an elite point producer in this league. That viz pasted above with Heiskanen’s zone entry rates? See that Ottawa logo way at the top? It's labeled for a reason. No defenceman in the league had more scoring chances generated off his zone entries this season than Ottawa’s number-1 blue liner. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Chabot] (may31)

19. Jason Spezza has announced his retirement. I guess the Leafs didn’t see him as a fit for their plans for next year, which is a shame – on most teams he could be a 35-point player on the third line and a leader in the dressing room. On the Leafs, they probably couldn’t promise him a regular lineup spot, and instead offered him a front office position which he ultimately took.

The retirement is a shame in that he ends his career with 995 points. So close! In his third year (he played a year in between in the AHL thanks to the lockout) he broke out with 90 points in 68 games in what turned out to be the best points-per-game average of his career. But during that three-year span with Ottawa alongside Dany Heatley he had 90, 87 and 92 points – his three best years. Spezza ended up topping 80 points four times, and 60 points eight times. His best fantasy season was his fifth one, when he had career highs in goals, points and plus-minus with 34, 92 and plus-26, as well as his third-highest PIM total at 66. (may30)

20. The Gold Medal game at the Men’s World Championship went down on Sunday afternoon, with Team Canada losing Team Finland. You can check out the player stats/leading scorers of the tournament here. But of note:

New Detroit goaltender Magnus Hellberg was fantastic over four games (0.932 SV%). He was a highly-touted draft pick of Nashville’s who never panned out – and now he’s 31. So again, I harken back to my statement of not expecting anything from goalies until they are well into their 20s. The Rangers released him in 2017 when he was 26…just in time for him to find his mojo in the KHL. Right in that goalie career sweet spot.

In the five seasons since he went to the KHL, his numbers have been nothing short of stellar. And now that he’s signed with an NHL team in need of a backup goalie – I think he’s one to watch. Of course Alex Nedeljkovic would need to stumble or get injured to give Hellberg any value. [Follow the link for a few other players that caught Dobber's eye] (may30)

21. Chris Tanev played with a torn labrum and dislocated shoulder during the playoffs. He is having surgery and is out until around October, likely looking at a slight delay to his season. That should open the door for Juuso Valimaki to get some extra ice time. Valimaki is no longer exempt from waivers and there is no way the Flames risk losing him by trying to send him down.

Other Calgary news – Sean Monahan is ahead of schedule in terms of his recovery from hip surgery. He’ll resume skating by July. And now I wonder if his steep production decline was due to the hips (he had surgery on the other one a year ago). If those problems are now solved, adjusting for the usual 20-30 games to get back into the swing of things/timing, etc., I wonder if he could get to some semblance of fantasy relevance. He’s still only 27. (may30)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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