Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll take a look at how Kaapo Kahkonen performed over his brief audition with the Sharks after a mid-season trade from Minnesota in order to project his value in fantasy moving forward. We'll also highlight OHL star Rory Kerins and shed some light on why many New York fans seem so low on former golden boy Nils Lundkvist.

Kahkonen owners must be feeling uneasy heading into 2022-23 after the Finn was traded to the Sharks mid-season. His former team, Minnesota, is on the rise thanks to a developing core of young talent (Kaprizov, Fiala, Boldly). By contrast, the Sharks appear to be much further behind the Wild in terms of both rebuilding and contending. They have their ageing blueline pillars, Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, signed for the next three to five years, and their main two forwards, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, signed for the next five-plus years. That's a ton of money and term tied up in four players, three of whom are on the wrong side of 30.

San Jose does have the 11th overall pick in this year's draft, plus multi-cat stud Timo Meier (25; RFA after next year), emerging star William Eklund, and the mercurial Ryan Merkley on defence. But other than those three and a few skilled middle-sixers like Jonathan Dahlen and Thomas Bordeleau, their pipeline is pretty barren. It looks like the Sharks' plan is to hope their young players develop quickly enough to catch the end of their older stars' windows. If everything breaks right, San Jose has an outside chance at being a mid-pack team and seeing some playoff action over the next few years before tearing it down and rebuilding in earnest. But this cloudy outlook certainly casts a shadow over Kahkonen as a fantasy asset.

A key factor for the viability of that plan is strong goaltending, and that's where Kahkonen comes in. Or is it? The Sharks' newest acquisition does not yet have a clear path to the starter's role because incumbents James Reimer and Adin Hill are both signed until the end of next season. Kahkonen owners will be hoping that the Sharks move either Reimer or Hill in the offseason and then dub the other 1B to Kahkonen's 1A. Before even looking that far, though, San Jose first needs to convince the 25-year-old RFA to stick around.

Assuming he does resign with the Sharks, those of us who own Kahkonen in keeper leagues will have to assess whether or not he is worthy of a keeper slot. Let's have a close look at his 2021-22 to help ease that decision.

Big picture, Kahkonen turned in a solid-but-not-spectacular 2.87 G.A.A. and 0.912 SV% over 37 starts between the Wild and Sharks last year. Impressively, 56.8% of those games were Quality Starts (QS)—meaning that he stopped more than the median save percentage of the league (roughly 0.917). That rate was good for 11th league-wide (minimum 25 games) ahead of premier tenders like Jeremy Swayman, Frederik Andersen, and Thatcher Demko. On the flip side, he also turned in a high Really Bad Start (RBS) percentage—games in which he had a SV% lower than 0.850—of about 19%, which tied him for 38th with the beleaguered Jordan Binnington. Consistency was an issue for Kahkonen in 2021-22, in other words, but he also showed stretches of dominance.

How much of that dominance took place with San Jose specifically? Quite a bit, actually. After the trade, Kahkonen started roughly 50% of the Sharks' remaining games. Seven of the nine games he started were Quality Starts, and only one was a RBS where he let in four goals on 14 shots against Dallas. It's too small a sample to read into too far but it suggests Kahkonen has solid upside with San Jose and wasn't simply a product of a strong system in Minnesota.

One thing to keep in mind, though, if you plan on rostering Kahkonen next year: wins will be scarce even if his ratios are solid. Despite the fact that he turned in seven QS, the Sharks only won two of those nine games, going 2-7-1 with Kahkonen between the pipes. Look for San Jose to lock him down with a multi-year deal over the off-season, something Minnesota clearly wasn't willing to do. Even before they traded him for next to nothing (defenceman Jacob Middleton), Minnesota perplexingly exposed him in the expansion draft and got lucky when Seattle passed on him in favour of defenceman Carson Soucy. It's not clear what concerns Minnesota and Seattle had about the young keeper but the Sharks may have quietly pulled off one of the savvier trades of the year.

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While OHL scoring leader Wyatt Johnston (DAL) grabbed most of the headlines in prospect circles this year with 124 points in 68 games, Rory Kerins (CGY) was right behind him with 118 points in 67 games. Not bad for a former sixth-round pick (2020). After going nearly a point per game in his draft year, Kerins fell victim to the cancelled OHL season in 2020-21, only getting in four games all year with the Flames AHL affiliate. But like Johnston, Luke Evangelista (NAS), and others, Kerins came back with a vengeance once the OHL got back up and running.

Kerins established himself as a goal scorer in his D0 year by potting 30 goals in 64 games. He further cemented that reputation this year by scoring 43 goals in only 67 games—a mark that tied him for sixth in the league. Watch his economy of movement on the following play as he anticipates a pass, steps up and intercepts it, then roofs it—really only touching the puck twice before it's past the goalie.

Hounds are buzzin' and GFL Memorial Gardens is LOUD!@NHLFlames prospect Rory Kerins finally has his first-career #OHLPlayoffs goal in Game 3. #FLNTvsSOO pic.twitter.com/jyA94ZEQbc

— OntarioHockeyLeague (@OHLHockey) May 10, 2022

His playmaking was also on display this year, as his 75 assists placed third overall. Here's an example of his vision and passing skill: he slides the puck through a seam past two defenders to set up a teammate in a high danger area.

Soo stays hot 🔥@NHLFlames prospect Rory Kerins (@kerinssy23) connects with @TBLightning prospect Jack Thompson (@jackthompson_22) as the @OHLHoundPower take it away. #SOOvsGUE pic.twitter.com/9JmkeJO52q

— OntarioHockeyLeague (@OHLHockey) May 1, 2022

Kerins is now 20 and should play full time in the AHL in 2022-23. The transition to the pro ranks can be challenging for prolific junior scorers used to the extra space and time afforded to them by sloppier systems and weaker defenders. As with every player making the jump, fantasy owners will get a clearer picture next year whether Kerins is a top-line or more of a middle six fantasy asset.

Kerins profiles well according to historical comparables despite the lost D+1 campaign. Hockey Prospecting gives him a 22% chance of averaging about 60 points a year over his career. That might sound low but those odds are actually decent; it's incredibly difficult to make the NHL, let alone become a star-level player. At his ceiling, Kerins could turn into a lower-end star like Oliver Bjorkstrand, while Emerson Etem, who had comparable junior stats but never exceeded 15 points in the NHL, is a snapshot of a worst case scenario.

Rory Kerins is quickly becoming one of the Calgary Flames best prospects. #Flames pic.twitter.com/siA3XBp6l4

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) February 6, 2022

The Flames endured a discouraging loss to the Oilers in this year's Battle of Alberta but there is help on the way. The smooth-skating Oliver Kylington finally broke out this year, as did the enigmatic Noah Hanifin (5th overall, 2015). Jakob Pelletier went a point per game in the AHL and should make the Flames next year. And Kerins will be pushing to be the next in line after Pelletier and maybe Matthew Phillips. He's currently ranked outside Dobber's top 200 forward prospects, so he's likely available in shallower keepers and dynasties; get him now before that changes.

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Rangers fans seem to have soured incredibly quickly on defenceman Niks Lundkvist (NYR) over the past year. After a record-breaking D+2 year in the SHL (31 points in 45 games), Lundkvist's star seemed pointed straight up. He then spent one more strong campaign in Sweden before splitting time this year between the AHL and NHL. The 21-year-old didn't light it up offensively at either level, but he did put a few points on the board with under 14 minutes per game and minimal power play time with the Rangers.

His half-a-point per game pace in the AHL might not seem great but it's important to remember that the Hartford Wolf Pack was a bottom-five team in 2021-22 with no star prospects to speak of. So Lundkvist didn't necessarily have the best situation there. With the Rangers, Lundkvist faced stiff competition for playing time from young defenders like Braeden Schneider and K'Andre Miller—both of whom have passed him on the depth chart.

As the deployment chart below shows, Lundkvist did only okay in a sheltered role in terms of play-driving:

It's not a perfect comparison by any means but Lundkvist is a bit like the Rangers' Sam Girard: he's a smooth-skating transition machine with great upside offensively who finds himself much further down the depth chart than he would be on a different team. Like Girard, Lundkvist would more likely thrive if traded to a team like Winnipeg, Pittsburg, Boston, or Arizona in need of a puck-moving power play specialist.

For fantasy purposes, now is an excellent time to acquire Lundkvist. In terms of PNHLe, a stat that equalizes junior production to allow cross-league comparisons, Lundkvist has been declining ever since his dominant 2019-20 campaign and is now at his lowest point ever.

Nothing has changed since this past September, however, since he was being called "The Prince" and considered by many in New York as an untouchable trade asset. He has an incredible shot, several seasons playing against men already under his belt, and now adjusted to the North American game. He was ranked fourth overall on Dobber's top 50 prospect defenceman list as recently as this past February. He currently sits ninth and is still one of the top offensive prospect defenders in fantasy—even if many no longer consider him in that stratosphere.

"This kid's going to be the prince. That's how good this kid is."@Rupper17 can't want to watch Nils Lundkvist. @NYRangers pic.twitter.com/GxWrtw9kF4

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) September 22, 2021

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.