One of the big storylines heading into the Stanley Cup final was whether or not Tampa Bay's Brayden Point would be ready to go for Game 1. He suffered a lower-body injury weeks ago in the first round and hasn't played since. There was some thought he might return against New York if the series went seven games. For now, it looks like he may be ready for Game 1 against Colorado:

Brayden Point centering line with Paul and Colton at today's practice. First time doing rushes in full skate

— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithTB) June 13, 2022

It would certainly be a big boost to the Lightning and would help give them another edge in the matchup, considering Nazem Kadri may not return these playoffs. Good news for Tampa fans.

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The New York Rangers lost in six games to Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference Final. All told, it was a pretty good season for the Blueshirts. Just anecdotally, it didn't seem many people had them as a top team before the season – I didn't think they were a top-10 roster – so to finish in the Final Four is a very impressive campaign. That they were up 2-0 in the ECF to only lose four straight games must be frustrating as all get out, but taking the long view, this was a big step in the right direction for a team that isn't that far removed from a rebuild.

Today, we'll go through the season some players had, the work the Rangers have to do this summer, and what they could look like for 2022-23. All of this will be in the prism of fantasy hockey, of course. Data from Natural Stat Trick and our Frozen Tools, unless otherwise indicated. Cap information from Cap Friendly.

The Kid Line

Perhaps the biggest development for the Rangers in the postseason was the emergence of the Kid Line. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko combined for just 71 points in 194 combined games (0.37 ppg) in the regular season, as the latter two fought injuries at times. They combined for 23 points in 59 games (0.39 ppg) in the playoffs, a small uptick during some very tough games. What's more is that per Moneypuck, that line led the Rangers in expected goals generated, and actual goals generated, at 5-on-5 throughout the postseason. In fact, they were the only Rangers line to sit at or above 50% of the expected goal share. They were arguably the team's best 5-on-5 line, though often in softer deployment. Let's talk about them one at a time.

Lafrenière was the team's first overall pick in the 2020 Entry Draft. He hasn't really broken out offensively yet, but a lot of that is due to his line mates. Both Chytil and Kakko have struggled to score in their careers, and the left winger was often skating in the team's bottom-6, away from guys like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin. In fact, out of the Quebecer's 1661 5-on-5 minutes for his regular season career, he's spent less than 38% of his TOI skating with either of those offensive stars. As a result, his on-ice goal rate is under 2.5 for his total 5-on-5 time with the Rangers, a half-goal lower (or more) than guys like the two named, plus Ryan Strome. With an on-ice goal rate of 2.46, and an individual scoring rate of 1.05, Lafrenière's line mates scored just 1.41 goals per 60 minutes. It shows scoring promise that the 20-year-old was scoring nearly 43% of his line's goals, but the lack of scoring means a lack of assists, and that means muted production. Combine that with a secondary PP role on a team that uses its top unit heavily, and we get his relatively low point rates.

But that brings us to one of his issues: he's not a great playmaker. From Corey Sznajder's Patreon, Lafrenière's primary shot assist rate – passes leading to team shots – was above the league average for the playoffs (8.86 per 60 minutes), and that was an excellent performance from him in that regard. It also was similar to players like Brandon Hagel and Corey Perry, which is not really great company.  It was a huge improvement from the regular season, though, where he was well below average at 6.02/60 minutes, not far off from players like Gregory Hoffman in Columbus and Joel Armia in Montreal. Again, not great company. It was good to see improvement in the postseason, but if he is to be a more well-rounded fantasy asset, improving those playmaking skills is the top priority.

Another note is that his transition game needs a lot of work. He was well below the league average in controlled zone entries, as well as scoring chances generated off those entries. For the regular season, Lafrenière's controlled zone entry rate was similar to Nate Thompson in Philadelphia. Again, not good company to keep for offensive transition work. In sum, this leads to very little offensive play driving, as evidenced by his offensive (and defensive) impacts as calculated by Evolving Hockey:

Where he has been successful is in his finishing. That mark of 1.05 goals/60 over the last two seasons leads the Rangers, is tied with Nathan MacKinnon, and is nearly in the 90^th percentile of the league. Goal scoring is still worth a lot, and he's not bad defensively, so there is something here. However, on top of more favourable deployment via skilled line mates and PP1 time, he needs to fix his transition game. Without all those things, he could be in tough to take a leap in fantasy-relevant production. He could get a PP1 role if Ryan Strome is not re-signed, but that's still up in the air.

Filip Chytil, on the other hand, continued his ability for good transition work. His controlled zone entry rate for the regular season was similar to players like Tyler Bertuzzi and Elias Pettersson, which is good company for once in this article. He was second among Rangers forwards in this regard (a distant second behind Panarin) and was even third on the team in scoring chances generated off those entries (again from Sznajder's data):

Another thing Chytil improved this year was shot selection. It is easier to generate good shots off controlled entries, and that paid off in 2021-22 as he tied for the lead among Rangers forwards (with Chris Kreider) in expected goal rate. His problem was he shot 6.6% at 5-on-5, a big decline from the 9.3% he shot in his first three full seasons. Overall, he shot 5.9% at all strengths, a huge downgrade from his 10.2% in those three years. He may have been short-changed by five or six goals, which could have helped him set a career-best, even in just 67 games played.

Conversely, we saw how things can go right for him when that shooting percentage turns around. He had 7 goals in 20 playoff games, shooting 15.6%. Maybe a bit high, but even 11% shooting would have him on a 20-goal/82-game pace in his postseason contests. That was with very low TOI at 13:24 per game. Should Strome move on, it's not unreasonable that Chytil gets moved to his spot on the second line with Panarin. Even without PP1 time, Chytil has 40-point potential in 2022-23 as long as he gets that 2C role. We'll see what they decide to do.

Finally, there's Kaapo Kakko. He was finally healthy scratched in the playoffs and was skating just 12 minutes a game as it was. I wonder if it's even fair to judge his season, given all the interruptions he had due to injuries. He fell off the map in his transition work, going from slightly above league averaged in COVID 2021 to well below league averaged in 2021-22. He does have some good defensive skills – his forechecking pressure and defensive zone puck retrievals ranked very well this season – but the offence just hasn't come along whatsoever. It's fine being a good defensive forward; there are lengthy NHL careers to be made off that. But they don't need him to be a good defensive forward, they need him to be a well-rounded, top-6 winger. Having similar controlled zone entry rates to Zack Kassian in Edmonton and Sam Gagner in Detroit does not scream "well rounded top-6 winger".

But, again, I wonder how injuries factored in here. In the shortened 2021 COVID season, he averaged over 9.1 controlled zone entries per 60 minutes. In his rookie 2019-20 campaign, that number was 9.2 per 60. This past season, that cratered to 5.75 per 60. So, he had two seasons north of 9.1 per 60 then had that rate fall by 37% in his third year. Again from Evolving Hockey, he went from nearly one standard deviation above the league average in offensive play-driving in 2021, to this in 2021-22:

Even with the offensive issues, his defensive game was still fine, even if it fell off a bit. But the offence just fell apart and it's either a function of a young player getting worse after two seasons of improvement, or, again, injuries being a factor.

All told, of the three, it seems Kakko has the longest road to fantasy relevance. If Andrew Copp is re-signed and Strome walks, I would wager that all of Copp, Lafrenière, and Chytil have the edge in potential PP1 minutes. On the other hand, Copp could end up the 2C and if Frank Vatrano walks (he's also unrestricted), they have both top-6 right-wing slots open. He might be the furthest from a reliable PP1 role, but he might also be closest to a consistent top-6 role. Then again, if Vatrano is brought back for cheap and Copp stays at RW2, Kakko's fantasy relevance will be nil.

What really compounds Kakko's problem is the lack of peripherals. He had a career-high in TOI this season but a career-low in shots per game. He also rarely hits, so he's a big dud in multi-cat leagues. We have to wait and see what the team does this offseason, but he could be right back to his RW3/PP2 role, and in that case, 30-40 points and no hits/PIMs with little PP production doesn't mean much in our game.

Perhaps the biggest note for the Rangers' season was the emergence of K'Andre Miller. He was above-average in controlled zone exits, a year after being well below average. His defensive zone play was very strong, particularly on the penalty kill, where teams largely struggled to generate anything from the dangerous areas (from Hockey Viz):

His improvement in the defensive zone was notable as the team went from 2.72 expected goals against with Miller on the ice in his rookie campaign to 2.56 with him on the ice this season. That isn't super-elite or anything, but it was an improvement in a season that was much higher scoring than we had seen in a couple decades. Better defensive numbers in a higher scoring environment speaks to his growth as a defender.

Miller's size and strength always lended itself to being a good defensive defenceman. It is the improvements offensively – like the controlled zone exits – that are very notable here. He's starting to round into a balanced blue liner, and a future top-pair guy. That may happen sooner rather than later, too.

But, yes, it's the summer that will determine a lot here. They have less than $14M in cap space with Strome, Copp, Vatrano, and Tyler Motte as UFAs with Kakko and Alexandar Georgiev as RFAs. Realistically, it won't take much to sign any of those guys not named Strome or Copp. So, even with just $14M in space, all of Copp, Vatrano, Motte, and Kakko could be back in Ranger blue next season. It was very important that the Rangers saw growth from their kids, and they saw growth in three of their four future cornerstones. That's a successful campaign for them and the franchise, all considered.

This team will largely stay together in 2022-23 and, of course, they have arguably the best goalie on the planet in Igor Shesterkin. Even with some very expensive contracts, the future of this team is looking brighter than it was a year ago. They need those aging players to maintain their elite play and if they do, along with more growth from Chytil, Laffy and co., we should see this team back in the playoffs in 2023.