Ramblings: Dadonov to Montreal, Blais Signs, Roto Rankings Fallers Swayman, M. Tkachuk (Jun 17)

Ian Gooding

2022-06-17

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We have an offseason trade to announce. The Golden Knights have traded Evgenii Dadonov to Montreal for the Shea Weber contract. For more, see the Fantasy Take from Mike Clifford.

Something I'll add about Dadonov that you may recall: He was a point-per-game player in Vegas (16 PTS in 16 GP) after the failed trade to Anaheim. Vegas was dealing with injuries to Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Reilly Smith, but Dadonov can still contribute if in the right situation. As Cliffy said, the Habs are bloated when it comes to wingers – particularly middle-6 level – but there's still an offseason of transactions still to occur.

The Rangers have reportedly signed Sammy Blais to a one-year extension worth $1.525 million. Blais was acquired in the Pavel Buchnevich trade last offseason, but he played in only 14 games because of a torn right ACL. If Blais can improve upon his scoring (just four points – all assists – in 14 games), he may become a significant factor in bangers leagues. Blais registered 100 hits in back-to-back seasons with St. Louis prior to his trade, even though he did not play in more than 40 games in either season.

This could get awkward. The NHL revealed on Wednesday that the grievance exercised by Evander Kane and the NHLPA for wrongful termination of his contract with the Sharks could extend past July 13, the opening of free agency. A likely outcome would have Kane and the Sharks reaching a settlement, although you can imagine that Kane being directed to return to the Sharks would be like Johnny Depp and Amber Heard being forced to cohabitate after their bitter court battle.

Kane might not be one of many UFAs that will find a home exactly on July 13 (for workload reasons, I'd love it if these signings were spread out a little more throughout the summer, but I digress). The uncertainty of his contract will certainly have major implications in salary cap leagues in particular. For more on cap leagues, Jamie Molloy is back with a brand-new Capped column this week on some low-cost players currently playing for the Stanley Cup. 

Full disclosure: I entered two playoff pools this season, and I'm not even going to come close to winning either. The main reason? I didn't pick Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl in either one. One was a multiple-choice box pool, while the other was pick any 20 players. Seems crazy now, but I guess I didn't think the Oilers would make it as far as they did. Teams factored into my choices more than individual players.

The Oilers twin towers finished the playoffs with 33 points and 32 points in just 16 games each – a 2 PTS/GP pace. The next-highest player remaining in the playoffs is Nikita Kucherov, who has 24 points. If the final goes the distance, Kucherov's expected point total would be eight points from the six games remaining, which would give him 32 points. That would match Draisaitl but still not surpass McDavid. So it's entirely possible that one or both Oilers could still surpass every Stanley Cup Final participant in playoff scoring. 100 percent of playoff pool-winning rosters likely won't have both McDavid and Draisaitl, but I think a great many will.

This may have fallen under the radar with the Stanley Cup Final starting on Wednesday, but Gary Bettman has announced that the 2022-23 season will start on October 11. That's something to keep in mind if you need to plan your fantasy league's draft and other offseason activities. This season started on October 12, which is later than it had started in previous pre-COVID seasons. However, you wouldn't have to change much if you were simply looking to mirror your schedule from last offseason. Even though free agency starts July 13 instead of the usual July 1, the offseason length isn't cut down significantly.

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The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been published for June. Although these rankings won't really matter until single-season drafts start happening in September (at the earliest), I'll still tweak and refine them based on both offseason moves and digging deeper on player statlines.

This month I concentrated on finding a few fallers. Here are two for today. I'll have two more tomorrow. As always, feel free to review and leave feedback, which I will consider for next month's rankings.

Jeremy Swayman

All being said, Swayman had an impressive first full season. His 2.41 GAA was in the top 5 among goalies that had played in at least 20 games. His .914 SV% and 53.7 QS% made him worth starting most of the time. All of those numbers were comparable to tandem mate Linus Ullmark, who was signed to a four-year contract last offseason to be the long-term replacement for Tuukka Rask.

Even though Swayman has a bright NHL future ahead, much of a goalie's fantasy value is tied to the team in front of him. Unfortunately, there are a multitude of reasons that the Bruins are expected to fall in the standings. The injuries to top defenseman Charlie McAvoy and first-line forward Brad Marchand. The possible retirement of Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron. Even the firing of Bruce Cassidy, who was able to implement a strong defensive system as the head coach.

Add all of that up along with a potential timeshare with Ullmark, and Swayman doesn't appear to be a top-100 fantasy option heading into next season. Of course, the offseason still has to play out. Yet if there's one team that appears prepared to take a step back, it's the Bruins. As the roster stands, wins will be harder to come by, and that directly impacts the goalies.

Matthew Tkachuk

The elder Tkachuk brother had career bests in the following categories: goals (42), assists (62), points – of course (104), plus-minus (+57!), shots on goal (253), and power-play points (29). That's pretty well all of the non-bangers roto categories that are universal (yes, I threw in plus/minus to bug a few people). In other words, Tkachuk has never had a season like the one he just had.

Can Tkachuk only go down from here? At age 24, he has plenty of great seasons ahead of him. Yet some advanced stats show some cause for concern. Namely, a 16.6 SH%, a 4.3 PTS/60, and a PDO of 1056. Tkachuk has shot at 16% just one other season in his career, while the PTS/60 is significantly better than his previous season high of 3.3 PTS/60.

This is one that we're going to have to revisit when free agency starts in a month. By then, we will quite possibly know whether Tkachuk's linemate Johnny Gaudreau will remain in Calgary or find a new home. Tkachuk and Gaudreau were literally joined by the hip last season – much more so than in previous seasons. If another Dobber writer is writing a "Johnny Hockey Signs with Team Other than Calgary" fantasy take, hopefully they'll factor in a potential drop in value for Tkachuk – even more so than what I'd listed in the Roto Rankings. Even if Gaudreau re-signs in Calgary, could this duo possibly equal their phenomenal 2021-22 season?

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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