Ramblings: Torts Hiring in Philly Official; Roto Rankings Fallers Duchene, Larkin (Jun 18)

Ian Gooding

2022-06-18

The Philadelphia Flyers officially announced the John Tortorella hiring on Friday. Read about what it means in fantasy leagues here.

For Flyers fans' sake, hopefully they receive the Columbus version of Tortorella that maximized the potential of that team as opposed to the Vancouver version who lasted only one season and never seemed like the right fit. I can remember fans here cringing when Torts stated in a press conference that even the Sedins would be blocking shots and killing penalties. If you're wondering why I'm not bullish on Torts improving the Flyers offensively, one example is the Sedins' 2013-14 season under Torts compared to the rest of their careers.

Daniel Sedin

2013-14: 0.66 PTS/GP

Career: 0.89 PTS/GP

Henrik Sedin

2013-14: 0.71 PTS/GP

Career: 0.91 PTS/GP

That's only one example over one season, I understand, but Tortorella teams haven't been known for their wide-open style. Don't expect any showboating on the Flyers either.

I had a laugh at the replies to this tweet saying this is why Torts is unemployed or will never be hired in the NHL again. They failed to account for the thinking of NHL GMs and how they like to recycle coaches.

Also, I don't usually speak in the first person when I write these fantasy takes, so I didn't mention that the one reason I kept Ivan Provorov on one of my teams all season (6 D) was his blocked shots total. I don't necessarily expect him to become a major scoring force under Torts, but I'd expect him to log a ton of minutes and thus continue to block a lot of shots. The downside to blocking shots, though, is the risk for injury – more so than in other roto categories. Taking one for the team could also mean time spent on the IR.

Unlike the Flyers, it seems as though the Chicago Blackhawks are embracing the full rebuild. According to several sources, they have been discussing a possible Alex DeBrincat trade with other teams. Although DeBrincat is hardly a grizzled veteran at age 24, his prime wouldn't likely align with a future competitive window for the Hawks, who still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on the books for one more season. A DeBrincat trade to a team in a better position to contend might ultimately help his fantasy value.

Now the Seth Jones trade-and-sign last summer really looks like a bad idea. The Blackhawks don't have anyone signed beyond three seasons from now, with Jake McCabe the only player signed for more than two more seasons.

Out NOW! Dobber's 16th annual Fantasy Prospects Report! Order it here – There is a reason why sales of this document have increased every year for 16 consecutive summers: when you buy it, you'll wonder why you ever went without it (and never make that mistake again!)

The Blue Jackets have signed Liam Foudy to a two-year contract extension. Foudy, the Jackets' first-round pick in 2018, spent most of this past season in the AHL, where he scored 19 points in 29 games.

Here's the Prospects Report writeup on Foudy by Hadi Kalakeche. Not exactly a ringing endorsement if you're waiting on Foudy in your keeper league (43% rostered in Fantrax leagues).

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Foudy endured a difficult season, regressing in his AHL point totals – 19 points in 29 games after earning 16 in 12 in 2020-21. Moreover, he appeared in just one game for the Blue Jackets as a result. The 6-0, 175-pound pivot has often had issues maintaining consistent results and seems to have slid down the pecking order, especially with the additions of Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson to the club's lineup. He's still 22 years old and has made some noticeable strides in his defensive game, which bodes well for the NHL, but proceed with caution if the opportunity to select him as a late-round prospect presents itself. The most likely projection for the skilled center seems to be as a bottom-six contributor with middling offensive numbers.

The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been published for June. Although these rankings won't really matter until single-season drafts start happening in September (at the earliest), I'll still tweak and refine them based on both offseason moves and digging deeper on player statlines.

This month I concentrated on finding a few fallers. Yesterday I listed two, and today I have two more for you.

Matt Duchene

Entering season 3, Duchene's seven-year, $56 million contract signed in 2019 appeared to be an anchor for the Predators' salary cap situation. His first two seasons consisted of 52- and 31-point 82-game paces. But then out of nowhere, Duchene exploded for a career year with career highs in both goals (43) and points (86).

Duchene was able to find chemistry in particular with Filip Forsberg, who finished with just one fewer goal and two fewer points despite playing in nine fewer games. Both Duchene and Forsberg finished with higher-than-expected analytics, particularly in shooting percentage, 5-on-5 shooting percentage, and PTS/60.

S%5on5 S%PTS/60
FILIP FORSBERG18.611.74.0
MATT DUCHENE18.911.53.5

I'm concentrating on Duchene here, since Forsberg will be a UFA and could find a new home, which could alter his value even more than any statistical normalization. In fact, the absence of Forsberg is another reason that Duchene could regress next season. Forsberg's 42 goals will be difficult to replace for Nashville. His absence could push Duchene's goal and point total down further than natural regression would.

In Duchene's defense, he took a career-high 228 shots, which contributed to the major scoring increase. If he maintains that, 30 goals might be within reach, but 40 seems like too much to budget for. Although Duchene proved last season that he is still a viable point producer, his 2021-22 output still seems like too much of a statistical outlier. 

Dylan Larkin

I don't feel as strongly about a potential downturn for Larkin as I do Duchene, as moving him down was more of a rankings correction than anything. That being said, Larkin had his share of red and orange on the Buy/Sell Meter on his Frozen Tools Advanced Stats page. Most notable was a 14.6 SH%, but also worth mentioning are his 9.9 5-on-5 SH% and his 3.0 PTS/60.

Although Larkin's 212 SOG was decent, it wasn't nearly as high as his 287 SOG from a few seasons ago. He was able to score 32 goals that season. Based on previous shooting percentages, he's going to have to shoot more in order to reach 30 goals again. Otherwise, expect a drop in goals.

Larkin does have a couple of things working in his favor for next season. One is a low secondary assist percentage (31.6%), which could push his assist total to over 40 next season. The other is that he will be entering a contract season next season, unless the Wings can sign him to a long-term extension this offseason.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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