Fantasy Hockey Poll: Sustainable Season Scoring Streaks

Rick Roos

2022-06-22

It's normal for skaters get better as they gain NHL experience; however, in most case the improvement happens quickly and followed by stabilization or with some ups and downs before leveling off. For this month's poll we're going to look at players who are riding streaks of several seasons where they've seen their scoring rate increase, in order to vote on which ones are the best bets to continue their trends.

Each of the 20 players listed below has either seen his scoring rate (i.e., his 82 game scoring pace, not necessarily his actual point total) increase for three or more straight seasons or has been in the NHL only three seasons but seen gains every season thus far. I opted to include the latter category of players because there weren't enough fantasy relevant skaters who met the three or more straight years criteria to fill out the 20 poll spots, so I figured the next best thing would be to include notable skaters who, although they've each played only three seasons, have seen their scoring rate increase every season thus far.

You should vote for however many players you believe will post a higher scoring rate in 2022-23 than they did in 2021-22, keeping their "streak" alive in the process. You could vote for each and every one of the 20 choices if you believe all will continue their upward trends, or, if not all of them, then for however many you think will actually do so. In other words, unlike some of the polls I've run there's no set number of votes you must cast.

With the necessary explanation and voting rules out of the way, here are the 20 players, listed in alphabetical order along with their scoring rate for 2021-22 plus an indication of the number of consecutive seasons of scoring rate increases they've had through 2021-22 or whether they are one of those who's only played three seasons and had an increase every season so far. A link to cast your votes will be at the end of the column.

Rasmus Andersson (50-point scoring pace in 2021-22; four season streak of increased scoring)

Is Andersson a 50-point defenseman based on his own skill? Probably not, as he made the best of a great situation in that he was the unquestioned top option for blueline offense for one of the highest scoring teams for 2021-22. But former top five overall pick Noah Hanifin finished 2021-22 with point per game scoring over his last 20 games, getting more man advantage time in the process. If Hanifin builds on that success or Andersson falters, then Andersson's streak of scoring gains is likely to come to an end no matter how great his team's offense continues to be.

Tyler Bertuzzi (75-point scoring pace; five seasons)

While the headline surrounding Bertuzzi for 2021-22 was his status as the only unvaccinated NHL player, he just kept on rolling in terms of upping his scoring output. Given that he's locked into the top six and PP1, plus has room for still more gains in ice time and SOG, and Detroit is a team considered to be on the rise, he has a good shot of further gains in 2022-23.

Pavel Buchnevich (85-point scoring pace; five seasons)

Although he saw less TOI overall and didn't take the ice for even 50% of his team's man advantage minutes, Buchnevich nevertheless played amazingly, forming great chemistry with Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko. Moving forward, with Tarasenko still a possibility to be traded, will Buchnevich be able to bolster his success? Seemingly yes, as his ice time and PP minutes both can improve in the normal course, as can his SOG. That having been said, St. Louis found success with three scoring lines, so more ice time might not be in the cards, which could stand in the way of Buchnevich's continued upward trajectory.

Andrew Copp (60-point scoring pace; six seasons)

Teams looking at Copp as a UFA will no doubt see his scoring trends and think he can do more of the same, particularly if given a higher profile role than the middle six, PP2 spot he's had over the past couple of seasons. But will Copp do better once looked upon as more of a "the guy" player, or could he falter under the increased spotlight and scrutiny?

Noah Dobson (52-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Yes, new Islanders coach Lane Lambert is considered more alike than not to the now departed Barry Trotz, and we all know that Trotz prioritized defense over scoring. Still, with Dobson tallying 36 of his 51 points in his last 47 games, while playing for Trotz, it's difficult to envision him not being able to end 2022-23 with scoring rate gains yet again, especially with 2022-23 set to coincide with his 200-game breakout threshold.

Anthony Duclair (64-point scoring pace; five seasons)

From barely in the league at one point, to now a proven scorer, Duclair rounding into form has been a great story. He was deemphasized in the playoffs however, which is concerning. At times in 2021-22 he was moved to the bottom six yet found a way to get back onto a scoring line every time and even was frequently on PP1. At this point, I find it difficult to bet against him given what we've seen.

Aaron Ekblad (77-point scoring pace; three seasons)

As the top defenseman in all situations for Florida, Ekblad had a superb 2021-22. But was it so great as to make it difficult to top? Quite possibly, as not only will Florida's offense find it hard to equal its amazing 2021-22 output, but Ekblad's cumulative injuries might start to take a toll.

Joel Eriksson Ek (53-point scoring pace; four seasons)

It's pretty easy to see what Eriksson Ek's recipe for success was in 2021-22, with it being the PP, as he held down a spot on PP1 for pretty much the entire season, netting him more than a third of his 50 points. With Kevin Fiala and Matt Boldy angling for more PP time, Eriksson Ek could find it difficult to maintain his grip on that precious spot; and if he's ultimately relegated to PP2 there's little chance of him being able to keep this streak intact.

Adam Fox (78-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Just when it looked like he was slowing down, with only seven points in his final ten regular season games, Fox proceeds to tally 23 points in 20 playoff games. He doesn't shoot the pick anywhere near as much as most prototypical high scoring rearguards; however, at some point it just might be that he defies comparison, in which case further scoring gains could be in the cards, especially with him starting 2022-23 at career game 204, which puts him right at his breakout threshold.

Jack Hughes (94-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Before he got hurt, Hughes had posted 47 points in his last 36 games, which translates to a scoring pace of 107, so all he really needs to do to continue to see scoring rate gains for 2021-22 is to play like he was, which seems realistic, especially given that he's on an improving team and is set to hit his 200-game breakout threshold in 2022-23.

Adrian Kempe (57-point scoring pace; three seasons)

Perhaps the most surprising 35-goal scorer not just of 2021-22 but in recent memory, Kempe looks like he's the sniper LA needs. Even though he only had 19 assists, 11 of them were secondary assists, plus a bevy of young LA forwards are set to make their mark; and lurking in the equation too is Victor Arvidsson, who's a more proven sniper and seemed to reawaken as a King. Although Kempe's scoring rate from 2021-22 isn't as high as most forwards on this list, he might have among the tougher times besting it.

Jordan Kyrou (83-point scoring pace; three seasons)

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With a scoring rate just below Buchnevich's, Kyrou did what he did despite two full minutes less ice time and fewer PP minutes. His SH% was reasonable and he had a high SOG/60, plus he's not hitting his 200-game breakout threshold until this coming season, suggesting he can still do more if given the chance, which, even with the Blues' dedication to three scoring lines, seems likely to occur after what Kyrou has shown.

Cale Makar (92-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Under normal circumstances, it'd be ludicrous to even consider it realistic for a d-man to better a scoring rate of 92. But normalcy doesn't apply to Makar, who, like Fox, has shined even brighter under the spotlight of the playoffs. Oh, and Makar isn't even due to hit his 200 game breakout threshold until this upcoming season. Perhaps the only concern is Makar already being a Certified Band-Aid Boy, as we saw what that did to the once amazing Mike Green. Still, bets against Makar, for at least the time being, seem like losing endeavors.

Andrew Mangiapane (55-point scoring pace; four seasons)

Similar to Kempe, Mangiapane reached new overall scoring heights due largely to his goal output. But Mangiapane's SH% was solid and unlike Kempe he didn't have a high secondary assist rate. If somehow Johnny Gaudreau leaves, chances are Mangiapane gets first dibs for a spot alongside Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm, unless upstart Dillon Dube, who ended the season with nine points in nine games and starts 2022-23 right at his 200-game breakout threshold, has something to say about things.

Auston Matthews (119-point scoring pace; five seasons)

We all know there will come a time when Matthews stops improving; however, is he there yet? With his unmatched goal scoring and being a fixture on the high scoring Leafs, he's as poised for huge success as any other NHL forward. Still though, 119 is a pretty high threshold to clear.

Josh Norris (68-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

With 29 points in his last 31 games for 2021-22, all Norris needs to do is more of the same in order to see further improvement. Plus, he's a sniping center, a PP whiz, and due to hit his 200-game breakout threshold in 2022-23, making it such that, on paper, he seems like an more solid bet than most of these other players.

Jason Robertson (88-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Although Dallas wasn't quite like St. Louis, Robertson was limited in his ice times at ES and on the PP, making his scoring all the more impressive. With Rick Bowness now gone though, chances are Robertson becomes even more of an offensive focal point, with that, plus him hitting his 200-game breakout threshold in 2022-23, likely leading to even further scoring gains.

Chandler Stephenson (66-point scoring pace; three seasons)

For 2021-22, Stephenson went from passenger on a line with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty to actual scorer. He also didn't vanish upon the arrival on Jack Eichel. Still, if everyone on the Golden Knights is healthy, Stephenson likely will be relegated to PP2 and perhaps the second or even the third line. Then again, if Vegas tries to spread around its offense like St. Louis, he could still shine. He's definitely the real deal, but will that be enough to continue his momentum?

Nick Suzuki (61-point scoring pace; only been in the league for three seasons)

Although Suzuki only improved upon his 2020-21 scoring rate by one point in 2021-22, he did so for a Montreal team that tallied fewer goals and while getting 20 PPPts on a mere 34 PPGs in total that the Habs scored as a team. He also finished with 36 points in his final 33 games, plus Martin St. Louis, under whom Suzuki flourished, is now the official head coach. Oh, and Suzuki is starting 2022-23 at game #210 of his career, putting him right at his breakout threshold. It's difficult to envision Suzuki not being able to parlay all that into a higher scoring rate for 2022-23.

Devon Toews (71-point scoring pace; three seasons)

What do you get when you take a defenseman who has talent and pair him with Cale Makar? Apparently, a 71-point scoring pace. Despite Toews' lofty point total, he actually ended 2021-22 colder, with 25 points in his last 36 games after emerging with 32 points in his first 30 contests. It's a tall order to even score at a 70-point rate for any d-man; and for Toews to be able to best that seems like a major stretch.

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Can all 20 of these players continue to up their scoring, or will some of their streaks come to an end in 2022-23? Chance are it's the latter; but you have to predict – with your votes – the ones who will be able to sustain their scoring rate increases versus those whose upward trajectory will be halted. In other words, vote for any and all players you believe will score at a higher 82-game pace than they did in 2021-22. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

Next week's mailbag has room for a couple more questions. To get yours to me, either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.

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