Ramblings: Keith Retires, Holdover Kane, Lafreniere Analysis (Jul 9)

Ian Gooding

2022-07-09

Day 2 of the NHL Draft took place on Friday, with the picks happening much more quickly than they did on Thursday for the first round. For a full list of picks from 1 to 225, head over to the NHL site. If you want to learn more about your favorite team's picks, or any other prospects, head over to Dobber Prospects and select the Teams – East or Teams – West menu. And of course, if you want the fantasy lowdown on the players that were just drafted, get your Prospects Report at the Dobber Sports Store.

All it takes is one move to create a rapid domino effect when it comes to the NHL market. For the goalies, that first domino was Alexandar Georgiev being traded to the Avalanche on Thursday. Later Thursday, it was Petr Mrazek to Chicago. Then on Friday morning, Ville Husso's rights were traded to Detroit and he promptly signed there. Then Vitek Vanecek to New Jersey. Did I miss anyone?

Goalies haven't been the only players on the move recently. Of course, the Blackhawks haven't wasted any time in starting their rebuild by parting with young scorers Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach (a little more on one of the players affected below). Defensemen have also gotten in on the fun, with Alexander Romanov off to the Islanders and Tony DeAngelo off to Philly.

I guess what I'm trying to say is if you're looking for my thoughts on every one of these transactions, you won't find it here today. NHL transactions tend to be a flurry of everything happening, then a whole lot of nothing. I'll have all summer to discuss these, so I'll probably cover everything bit by bit once the dust settles. In the meantime, you can find analysis of everything on the Fantasy Take – Latest NHL Moves page. Cliffy has been a superstar these past couple days with all of this work.

According to multiple reports, Duncan Keith will be announcing his retirement. With two Norris Trophies, two Olympic gold medals, three Stanley Cups, and a Conn Smythe Trophy win, Keith seems like a certain Hall of Famer. He was also named one of the NHL's 100 greatest players in 2017. Keith's top offensive season was 2009-10, when he scored 69 points (14 G, 55 A).  

In his one season in Edmonton, Keith finished with 21 points (1 G, 20 A) while averaging just under 20 minutes per game. He was regularly paired with either Cody Ceci or Evan Bouchard, and it sounds like the Oilers wanted Keith back to continue to be paired with Bouchard. Between the Keith retirement and trading Zack Kassian to Arizona, the Oilers find themselves with $8.7 million in cap space. It might be wise for them to find another defenseman, but I'd imagine that they are hot and heavy on the goaltending market, which includes the likes of Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell. Plus I'm sure they'd like to find a way to bring back Evander Kane if they can.

Keith had one year left on his contract at $5.54 million. However, his retirement will create a cap recapture penalty for the Blackhawks in both 2022-23 ($5.5 million) and 2023-24 ($1.9 million). That might not matter as much as it would for most teams, since the Hawks seem to be bottoming out anyway.  

The LA Kings have signed Adrian Kempe to a four-year contract worth $5.5 million per season. Kempe earned a substantial raise from his previous contract of $2 million per season, scoring a career-high 35 goals and 54 points this past season. Cap leaguers will need to account for that new amount, which is higher than what Alex had projected Kempe to earn in his recent Salary Projections. That means Kempe might not be as valuable in cap leagues as you'd think.

I listed Kempe as one of my personal top waiver-wire pickups of the past season, so I won't rehash that here. You can read more about Kempe in the May 8 Ramblings.

The Chicago Blackhawks have had quite the week, trading away two under-25 scorers in DeBrincat and Dach. Further to that, there are rumblings that Dylan Strome will not be qualified, which will cut into their depth even more. This tear-down and rebuild might be long overdue, and it was quite frankly the direction they should have taken last offseason when they opted to trade for and sign Seth Jones instead. So the Blackhawks next season will consist of the expensive Jones along with holdovers Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and… anyone else?

I'll focus on Kane here, since he's still a strong fantasy commodity. The departure of DeBrincat in particular could obviously hurt his production. Check out who Kane's most frequent linemates were in 2021-22 (from Frozen Tools):

1              432:01   30.7        PATRICK KANE – DYLAN STROME – ALEX DEBRINCAT

2              161:17   11.5        PATRICK KANE – ALEX DEBRINCAT – KIRBY DACH

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3              92:56     6.6          PATRICK KANE – DYLAN STROME – BRANDON HAGEL

4              74:08     5.3          PATRICK KANE – JONATHAN TOEWS – BRANDON HAGEL

5              71:25     5.1          PATRICK KANE – DYLAN STROME – DOMINIK KUBALIK

Of those players listed, it's possible that Kane, Toews, and possibly Dominik Kubalik are the only players on the Hawks next season. I'm assuming that Kane isn't traded because of the size of his contract ($10.5 million) or bought out (still too skilled a player). But who knows, maybe he will decide to push a trade as soon as possible instead of being a part of a lame-duck season in Chicago, which could be his last one there anyway because it's the final year of that contract.

Kane has been a point-per-game-plus player for much of his career, including nine of his last ten seasons. In addition, he's consistently been on pace for between 95-100 points over the past three seasons. Of course, age regression will hit someday (Kane is now 33). Yet even without many skilled linemates in what appears to be a tank attempt, anything less than a point per game would seem like a sudden dropoff. Don't classify Kane as an elite scorer any more, and based on recent events he'll probably be a faller in the July Roto Rankings (June rankings here). That being said, he's still a very valuable fantasy asset even as a standalone performer.

I'll take the time to answer a question I recently received on whether Alexis Lafreniere is for real. After two seasons, the 2020 first overall pick hasn't set the league on fire. Maybe there's the expectation that he should by now, but I'll remind you that he's still another season away from his fourth NHL season and another 65 games from reaching the 200-game breakout threshold. By this time next season, I think we will have a better idea of what Lafreniere is all about at the NHL level.

The advanced stats check out as normal except for one. Lafreniere had a secondary assist percentage of 50% in 2021-22, which is considered quite high relative to his first season and other players. His assist total (12) isn't high to begin with, so that shows some level of concern. Lafreniere recorded nine assists in 56 games in his rookie season, six of which were primary. Don't assume that Lafreniere will struggle to record assists, though, as he recorded 68 and 77 during his final two seasons of junior.

Lafreniere has scored just two power-play goals in his entire NHL career (both in 2021-22). However, if Ryan Strome leaves via free agency, Lafreniere is one possibility to move up to the first power-play unit in Strome's place. (I'll leave that there for whichever Dobber writer handles the "Strome to ___" piece if Strome is not back in NYC, if it’s not me.) The Rangers have only one left-handed shot on the first unit in net-front presence Chris Kreider, although that didn't seem to matter much for one of the league's top power plays.

If you haven't been impressed by Lafreniere so far, be patient. He is only 20 years old, and the Rangers have had the luxury of being able to ease him into the NHL. Perhaps this is even the time to send a trade offer to a Lafreniere dynasty owner who has been expecting instant gratification.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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