Wild West: Western Conference UFAs 2022
Grant Campbell
2022-07-11
With the unrestricted free agent deadline coming up on July 13th, I thought I would take a break from the looks at each western organisation and focus on the notable UFAs from each team in the West.
Filip Forsberg was one of the bigger UFAs but he came to an agreement with Nashville on an eight-year deal at $8.5 million AAV on Saturday. Alex Maclean had him at $8.38 million AAV.
Here are some of the most notable unrestricted free agents remaining. I've included Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik from Chicago as most reports indicate that Chicago will not be qualifying either player.
For salary projections, we will use our colleague Alex Maclean's projections.
We will start from the lowest projections and end up with the highest.
Paul Stastny (36 years old) (C) (Projected $1.25 million AAV)
Stastny had a pretty good year in Winnipeg last season with 21 goals and 24 assists in 71 games. He averaged 17:47 minutes per game, which is not an indication that he is slowing down yet. He is an effective penalty-killer and very good at faceoffs. Ideally, the signing team would like him on a one-year deal, but I'm sure he will be pushing for three years. I do think he will come in above the $1.25 million AAV projected and sign a two-year deal at around $2 to 2.5 million AAV.
Mattias Janmark (29) (LW) ($1.25M)
Janmark was in Vegas last season as a third-line checking winger who averaged 14:21/game. He managed nine goals and 16 assists in 67 games, which is about his offensive ceiling at this point. I think Alex is right on with this projection and if any team offers Janmark two or three years above it, they are overpaying.
Andreas Athanasiou (27) (LW) ($1.3M)
Athanasiou was injured for most of last season with Los Angeles as he only played 28 games but did manage 11 goals and six assists. He scored 30 goals in 2018-19 and was on pace last year, but his defensive game is suspect, so he might have to sign a one or two-year deal between $1 and 1.5 million to prove his health and his ability to score at the 30-goal pace. He hasn't played more than 55 games in three years, but if a team can sign him for one year, he's a low-risk addition who could get you 20-25 goals.
Vladislav Namestnikov (29) (LW/C) ($1.47M)
Namestnikov has played for six different teams over the past five seasons, bouncing between Tampa Bay, NY Rangers, Ottawa, Colorado, Detroit and Dallas. His career-high is 22 goals and 26 assists in 81 games with TB and NYR in 2017-18 (nine PPG and 16 PPP). Last year he had 16 goals and 14 assists in 75 games between Detroit and Dallas. His powerplay days seem to be over, but he can play there if needed. If a team can sign him for two or three years near the projection I think Namestnikov would be a decent signing for a 15-15-30 third-liner.
Nick Leddy (31) (D) ($1.5M)
Leddy just finished his seven-year contract signed with Garth Snow with the NY Islanders at $5.5 million AAV. I've said for a few years now that, if Leddy doesn't produce 40-point seasons then he is battling to keep a roster spot. It has been five years since he last had 40-points and had three goals and 21 assists in 75 games split between Detroit and St. Louis. Once again, I agree with Alex's valuation 100% but I do think that a team will give him $2.5 to 3.0 million for a two or three-year deal this summer and I hope it's not the team I cheer for.
Braden Holtby (32) (G) (1.64M)
Holtby has had short stretches of fine play in the net over the past two years but has struggled to stay healthy and consistent as well. Last year he turned things around as he played 24 games and went 10-10-1 with a 2.78 GAA, a 91.3 save percentage and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) of 1.03 after back-to-back seasons in the negative 13s and 14s in GSAA. I think he will be limited to 25-35 games a year, but if a team can sign him for $1.5 to 2 million AAV for one or two seasons, they could get very good value if he can duplicate last season.
Alexander Edler (36) (LD) (1.66M)
I think Edler has one more year in him and strangely, there hasn't been much chatter if any about him coming back to the Vancouver Canucks. He only played 41 games last year but did put up three goals and 16 assists. The Kings managed his ice time down to 18:28/game which is what any team will need to do next year.
With the Sedins back in the fold in a development capacity and Patrik Alvin the GM, I can see Edler wanting to get back to Vancouver, but the question will be at what price? I don't think the Canucks can go much above the league minimum, but I think that other teams are still going to offer him in the range of $1.5 to 2 million for next season. I could see the Canucks offering him a two-year contract at under $1 million AAV.
Phil Kessel (34) (RW) (2.5 million)
It wasn't a good sign that Arizona was unable to trade Kessel last year at the deadline. He managed eight goals and 44 assists in 82 games with two goals and 12 assists being on the powerplay. At this point, he offers some offense with very little else. Does a team like Chicago sign him for $2 to $3 million for one year and hope that he has some chemistry with Patrick Kane? I'm not sure of many scenarios where he makes sense for a team to sign.
Reilly Smith (31) (RW) ($2.88M)
Smith has been a pretty consistent points producer over the past nine seasons with a low of 25 in 53 games and a high of 60 in 67 games. He should get 20-25 goals and 25-30 assists while seeing time on the power play and killing penalties as well. Health is becoming an issue as he hasn't played more than 74 games since 2016-17, but I still think he will get between $3 and 4 million AAV for three or four seasons.
Josh Manson (30) (RD) ($3.29M)
Manson had only played in the NHL with Anaheim for seven years until he was dealt to Colorado to help them win the Stanley Cup. His price tag might go up a little because of that to be fair to Alex's projection as I could see him getting between $4 and 4.5 million AAV for three or four years. He was able to dress for 67 games last year and had six goals and 10 assists with 179 hits and 70 blocked shots. I think any team will be overpaying if they come in over the projection as Manson averages 18-19 minutes per night and is now a fifth or sixth defender on most teams.
David Perron (34) (RW) ($3.41M)
Perron hasn't had a season under 0.81 pts/game over the past five. Last year he had 27 goals and 30 assists in 67 games. I think someone will give him $5 to $6 million AAV over three years and if Joe Pavelski can do it, Perron might be full value for it as well. Any team would love to have Perron on their roster as he should get 20-25 goals and 55-60 points while being defensively responsible.
Dylan Strome (25) (C) (3.6M Qualifying offer not given by Chicago)
I've included Strome here, but his rights should be traded if Chicago has any sense before the deadline. I kind of understand what Chicago is doing here, but I'm baffled as to why they wouldn't have traded Strome at some time over the past two years and got some value in return.
Strome is a big guy at 6'3" and 200lbs but has 65 hits in 273 career games. He's not a physical center, but he does provide offense and has improved in his end and the faceoff circle. Last year he had 22 goals and 26 assists in 69 games with the second half of 39-15-17-32. I can envision a team signing him for five to seven years at $4.5 to 5.5 million AAV and taking a long-term chance.
Evander Kane (30) (LW) ($3.76M)
I didn't think that Edmonton would be able to re-sign Kane, but with the Zack Kassian trade and the news that Duncan Keith is retiring, I think it will happen now. What will be the term and money is the big question?
Kane played 43 games last year in Edmonton and had 22 goals and 17 assists while in the playoffs he was even more prolific with 13 goals and four assists in 15 games. The Oilers want him and Kane needs the Oilers. So one would think, but the original complaint Kane has with San Jose terminating his contract is still up for determination with the league and the NHLPA.
Assuming that Kane is UFA, I think the Oilers would give him $5.5 to 6 million AAV over five or six years. Kane might want more than that, but he needs to remember that because of his actions, there probably isn't much of a market for him outside of three or four other teams willing to take him into their clubs. The Oilers might have more pull than we know and be able to come in at two or three years closer to Alex's projection at around $4 million AAV.
Dominik Kubalik (26) (LW) ($4.0M qualifying offer not given by Chicago)
I don't think the Blackhawks could trade his rights in this case as I don't think many teams would want to qualify Kubalik at $4 million.
Kubalik averaged 0.68 pts/game over his first two NHL seasons with Chicago before regressing a little in year three where he had 0.4/g with 15 goals and 16 assists in 78 games. Kubalik has averaged 2.3 shots/game in his 202 NHL games and has a shooting percentage of 13.1 in those games. If he plays 70 games next season and gets 2.3 shots/g he would have 161 shots on goal and if he had a shooting percentage between 12 and 14 he should get 19-22 goals each year. He has some defensive deficiencies but he should command $2 to 2.5 million AAV on the open market.
Andre Burakovsky (27) (LW) ($4.16M)
In the three years that Burakovsky had been in Colorado, he averaged between 0.78 and 0.83 pts/game with a high of 22 goals and 39 assists which he had last year in 80 games. He might struggle to duplicate that production outside of Colorado, so any team offering him a contract in free agency should temper their expectations between the 0.46 pts/g he had over five years in Washington and the 0.8 he had in Colorado.
If he goes to a new team he might produce 45-55 points a season and the projection might be spot on between $4 and 4.5 million AAV over five or six seasons.
Darcy Kuemper (32) (G) ($5.88M)
Without the Stanley Cup win this season, Kuemper is still full value for any contract he might get. Over his past four seasons (three in Arizona, one in Colorado), Kuemper had a GSAA of 26.61 in 2018-19, 16.27 in 2019-20, minus 0.68 in 2020-21 and 18.11 in 2021-22. He's in the top five in the NHL in that category for that period. The reason the Avalanche don't need him isn't that they didn't want him. They know now that they only need average goaltending to win, which is what Kuemper provided in the playoffs. Anything more would be valuable cap space used in an area they don't need.
Kuemper should get $5.5 to 6 million over three or four years and there are only a few teams left that will be bidding and two of them are Edmonton and Toronto.
Valeri Nichushkin (27) (RW) ($5.93M)
I don't think anyone could have watched this year’s playoffs and not been impressed by the play of Nichushkin. He finished with 25 goals and 27 assists in 62 games and nine goals and six assists in 20 games which on the surface don't scream out $6 million AAV.
There are some uncertainties as he has only put it all together for this one season after playing six NHL seasons before. My thinking is that even if he regresses offensively to 20 goals and 20 assists every year for the next four or five, what he brings defensively is worth $5.5 to 6 million AAV for those years. The risk will come in with someone offering him six to eight years.
John Klingberg (29) (RD) ($7.02M)
While it is very likely that Klingberg will sign with Dallas or someone else for $6.5 to 7 million AAV, the concern is that the duration might be six or seven years.
He fits the mold of a Tyson Barrie in terms of production but is probably a better overall defender. I'd be more comfortable paying him $5 to 5.5 million AAV over five seasons than what he will get. Last season he had six goals and 41 assists in 74 games with 20 of those points on the power play. He will need to be a PP1 quarterback and I only see fits in Carolina, Anaheim, Seattle and perhaps Boston.
Nazem Kadri (31) (C) ($7.8M)
I'm still waiting for Kadri to slow down from last season as he just stayed hot the whole year. His career-high after 11 NHL seasons was 32 goals and 29 assists with Toronto in 2016-17. He exploded for 28 goals and 59 assists in 71 games last year with seven goals and eight assists in 16 playoff games including his first Stanley Cup.
Kadri could be a first line center on some teams and can run the power play, take faceoffs and is defensively strong. I don't like the idea of a team giving him a five or six year deal at $7.5 to 8 million AAV as the last three or four years could be a problem. There is a good chance that he will bring 60-65 points from here on.
Johnny Gaudreau (28) (LW) ($10.6M)
I think Gaudreau will likely be back in Calgary if they can get him at around $9.5 million or under over six or seven years or maybe $9 million for eight. Other teams are what will drive the price tag up as there is a big market for a 28-year old player coming off a season where he had 40 goals and 75 assists in 82 games. He had 99 points in 2018-19 but there has to be a little concern for any team that he had two off years in a row before last season. In 2019-20 he had 58 points in 70 games and 48 points in 56 games in 2020-21.
I can comfortably put Gaudreau into the top 20 cap hits in the NHL which is $9.5 million but I'm not sure I would consider him in the top 10 where the cap hit starts at $10.5 million AAV. At the same time Johnny Gaudreaus don't grow on trees, so other teams might jump at the chance and overpay.
As usual every year, the prudent thing to do for most GMs is to avoid UFAs altogether as there are rarely any good signings that come out of this silly season. Most UFAs get too much term and too much money. We will see if the new GMs this year are any wiser than their predecessors.
Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.