Fantasy Take: Detroit Adds David Perron to Scoring Mix
Michael Clifford
2022-07-13
Detroit continued a very busy day of signings as they got their second-line centre in Andrew Copp, bolstered the back-end by adding Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta, and then went and got some winger help in the form of David Perron. We got it announced a few hours after free agency opened:
It was later announced for $4.75M a season. Let's go through what it means for fantasy owners.
What Detroit Gets
It seems the rebuild is nearing an end in Detroit. They have cleared out the plethora of bad contracts that were around post-Ken Holland and GM Steve Yzerman can start to formulate his team. One thing the Wings have been missing for years now is an adequate second scoring line. They started to fill that gap in recent seasons by acquiring Jakub Vrana and Robby Fabbri but adding the players they have today just solidified it. They may have a genuine third scoring line now, let alone two.
One thing Perron can do is score goals. He had 94 in 251 games in his third stint with St. Louis, or 31 every 82 games. He averaged 15.5% shooting in those four seasons and has a career 13% shooting mark. That kind of conversion rate will go a long way in creating a viable second scoring line.
At the age of 34, decline is always a concern. There are also his fancy-stat concerns. People may show a series of charts that show he doesn't drive play particularly well, and he doesn't. But according to Evolving Hockey's play-driving data, his offensive play-driving improved all four years in St. Louis as he aged, and his defensive metrics even improved. Where he can really help is on the power play, too. According to the same data, Perron was top-20 in the league among all forwards in driving dangerous shots with the man advantage, in the same range as names like Nikita Kucherov, Claude Giroux, Andrei Svechnikov, and William Nylander:
For those that don't want to rely on expected goal data, his actual goal-driving data keeps him in the top-20, sandwiched between Sidney Crosby and David Pastrnak. Whether by expected goals or actual goals scored, Perron was one of the top power-play contributors in the league in his St. Louis tenure.
This is an area Detroit needed a lot of help. Despite having enough talent for a top PP unit, they were 28th in goals per minute last year, nestled between Los Angeles and Montreal. If Perron can help make them even average, he could add 10-12 goals on the power play alone. That's a lot for one player.
There is also versatility to consider. He is a right shot that plays on the left wing but can also skate on the right side. My initial guess is that he goes and plays right wing. They have Bertuzzi/Vrana on the left but Raymond on the right. With those three named, plus Perron, plus Larkin and Copp in the middle, the top-6 looks set at even strength. This will move the likes of Robby Fabbri, Michael Rasmussen, and Filip Zadina to the bottom-6 unless injury hits (or they pull a Sam Reinhart with Perron).
What the PP looks like is uncertain. It's hard to imagine Detroit makes this signing without Perron on the PP in mind, so he, Larkin, and Bertuzzi appear to be the locks. My guess is Perron and Raymond join them, meaning secondary minutes for the likes of Vrana, Fabbri, and Zadina. This hurts Vrana's upside a lot, as he was around 15 minutes a game as it was. Getting 15-16 minutes with secondary PP time puts a 60-point season at his apex.
This is a power-play loss for St. Louis. They have a good mix of young and veteran talent but Perron, as mentioned, is one of the best in the league at what he does. It does open the door for someone like Pavel Buchnevich or Jordan Kyrou to take his spot, but it wasn't a heavily-used top unit, either.
Who this helps
Moritz Seider
Who this hurts