Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – What might the future hold for Nils Lundqvist? Will he have started to make a mark, if at all, by game 150, which is how long this GM could stash him on his prospect bench?

I see two possible scenarios unfolding. One is he gets traded, perhaps with the underachieving but also inexpensive Kaapo Kakko, in order to obtain someone – perhaps J.T, Miller or Patrick Kane – to help the Rangers push for a Stanley Cup next season. The second is New York looks at what's happened with Colorado and figures you can't have too much of a good thing, keeping Lundqvist just as the Avs haven't – as yet – traded Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, or Bowen Byram.

Lundqvist is a lot like Byram in that he projects to be a complete package, whereas Adam Fox, while supremely offensively talented, is not a prototypical true #1 d-man, at least not yet. The Rangers might want to hold onto Lundqvist to have a one-two blueline punch for the next decade. If that occurs, then Lundqvist probably would have a points ceiling, as PP1 time would be out of reach; but he should be part of a high scoring Ranger offense, which, if Colorado is any indication, was able to lead Girard to a 55-point pace and most recently Devon Toews to a 71-point pace. If Lundqvist stays in the Big Apple, I could see him hitting 40 points in 2022-23, and making a push for 50 within the next two to three seasons, but not likely producing more than 55 unless Fox misses time and Lundqvist steps into his plum minutes.

Another scenario is the Rangers figure that Lundqvist is worth more to them as a trade chip than as a player around which to build. After all, while he's highly touted no one really knows what the future might hold. As such, the Blue Shirts could move him as part of a deal for a Miller, Kane, or other rental. A trade presumably could give Lundqvist a more prominent role, although Vancouver has Quinn Hughes and Chicago has Seth Jones, so it's not guaranteed he'd step into a major role. As such, he might not net more points in the near term; but down the road, the result could be 60+ points on a regular basis, with a higher points ceiling given his resume.

In sum, I wouldn't hope for too much by game 150 no matter what happens. Best to expect a point every other game during that time frame, with a modest jump if he stays in the Big Apple but a slightly bigger eventual boost if he goes elsewhere.

Topic #2 – In a keeper league where goals are worth two points and assists worth one, who is the better own for the long and short term: Evan Bouchard or Miro Heiskanen?

Although they were picked just seven spots apart in the 2018 entry draft, Heiskanen has played over two seasons worth of games more than Bouchard. But Bouchard is now in the NHL to stay as well, and each one is entering 2022-23 with a much different outlook than they had when they were embarking upon the 2021-22 campaign. Note that as I write this, John Klingberg is still unsigned and Tyson Barrie is still rumored to be on the block, so things could change significantly.

Assuming Barrie stays, Bouchard showed he could produce and at times even wrested the PP1 job from Barrie. Although, within a week of then interim now official head coach Jay Woodcroft being installed on February 10th, Bouchard lost that job and saw his ice time drop, with him seeing only 20:00+ of TOI in a game six times in 37 games thereafter, compared to 32 of 45 games beforehand. In the all-important playoffs, it was more of the same. Yet despite this, Bouchard posted nine points in 16 playoff contests, which was a slight improvement on the 18 that he tallied in the 36 regular season games under Woodcruff. With Barrie signed for two more seasons and the Oilers window to win not in danger of closing any time soon, I fear that Bouchard will continue to be brought along slowly, especially since although Barrie did worse than Bouchard in the playoffs with just five points, Barrie had 24 points in the 35 regular season games that Woodcroft coached, with all the PP time that he could handle. Still, Bouchard has a chance to step in if Barrie falters or leaves town and his goal total is nothing to sneeze at.

As for Heiskanen, he was plugged into a major role from day one. The result is he's played 275 games by age 22 in his first four seasons, but not yet hit the point per every other game mark or averaged 2.3 cumulative shots per game in any season. What does that portend for his future? Tough to say, as six other defensemen also picked in the first round met those criteria dating back to 1990-91, with two becoming stars (Chris Pronger, Mrogan Rielly), two quite good (Wade Redden, Seth Jones), but two not doing that great (Derek Morris, Noah Hanifin). The two who had ice time most similar to that of Heiskanen were Rielly and Jones, plus, if ice time had been tracked, probably Pronger as well; so the two stars and one of the very good players, which is encouraging. Moreover, we've yet to see what Heiskanen can do when given the keys to the PP1 car, as John Klingberg had that role for all of Heiskanen's career to date; however, if indeed Klingberg leaves it paves the way for Heiskanen to grab the PP1 reins. And in 2020-21 when Heiskanen commanded 57.9% of Dallas' man advantage minutes due in part to Klingberg missing a chunk of games, Heiskanen had one PPPt per every five games, which, although not great, was still decent. Also, twice Heiskanen was above 71% in IPP on the PP, which bodes well for him to succeed in an expanded PP role.

If Barrie stays and Klingberg goes, for sure Heiskanen is the better near term option, what with Barrie in the Edmonton picture for two more seasons and favored by the new coach. Also, given what Pronger and Rielly did, he could also be the best long term even if Bouchard does eventually step into a PP1 role for the Oilers. Given the comparables and Heiskanen's decent output in the lone season where he was able to log more PP minutes, plus his PP IPP in two other seasons, I think I'm taking Heiskanen despite Bouchard's likely edge in goals.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team H2H league starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G and categories of, for skaters, points only, and, for goalies, W (2 pts) T (1 pt), SO (3 pts), which five should be cut:

C – Robert Thomas, Anton Lundell, Nico Hischier, Vincent Trocheck, Bo Horvat, Casey Mittlestadt, Alex Turcotte, Connor McMichael
LW – Matt Boldy, Alexis Lafreniere, Jesper Bratt, Juraj Slafkovsky, Jordan Greenway, Grigori Denisenko, Max Comtois, Tomas Tatar
RW – Sam Reinhart, Cole Caufield, Eeli Tolvanen, Vasily Podkolzin, Drake Batherson, Alexander Holtz
D – Adam Fox, Darnell Nurse, Ivan Provorov, Scott Perunovich, Nils Lundkvist, Henry Jokiharju
G – John Gibson, Jordan Binnington, Matt Murray, Chris Dreidger, Jesper Wallstedt, Brian Elliott

Looking at the Forum thread, there was a lot of variety in the suggestions, although pretty much no one was on board with dropping any of the prospects. And guess what – that's where I stand too. I'm not saying all are sure to succeed; and with only just over 400 players owned in total, prospects are important but not untouchable; it's just there are enough drops from the current crop of NHLers so as to not have to get rid of a prospect.

Several suggested dropping Comtois, citing his poor 2021-22 and lack of future hopes. I'm not on board, as in 2022-23 he'll hit his 200-game breakout threshold and the Ducks kept playing him in their top six for much of 2021-22, suggesting they're still primed for him to succeed. Dropping him would be premature, and that's notwithstanding their signing of Ryan Strome.

Who do I drop then? Tatar is the first cut. His ice time per game, both overall and on the PP, has dropped for three straight seasons and he looks like a shell of his former self. Plus, with the Devils poised for a youth movement, Tatar likely will be earmarked for the bottom six and then allowed to walk as a UFA after this season, when he might find it difficult to get a contract. Is there a chance he somehow wrangles his way into the top six, where he could skate alongside either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and perhaps play well, hoping to up his UFA value? It's not impossible; however, I'd bet against it, making him a safe enough drop.

It is also fine to toss Jordan Greenway back into the free agent pool. Not only has he started to develop a pattern of missing time due to injury, but he plays wing, which is the area where the cap crunched Wild are arguably least in need of help. If the league counted hits then maybe Greenway could pass muster; but in a points-only skater format, there are better options.

The third cut for me is Jokiharju. Yes, I realize he's only 23 and had a big jump in ice time this past season, but he does not look like he will become a scorer based on his own skill set not to mention the presences of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power. He just isn't good enough, and his future is not bright enough, to remain on this team.

My last two cuts are goalies, even though the thread creator said they have value. Murray would have been a drop, but suddenly he has the potential to seize the #1 job in Toronto. Do I have any faith in him staying healthy, let alone playing well? Frankly no; however, given what he could do he can't be a cut. It's a big risk, but a chance at even bigger reward.

That leaves Elliott and Dreidger. Dreidger has a chance to steal the starter's job in Seattle when he returns after ACL surgery. As for Elliott, he plays on a team where he likely will get a win nearly every time he plays; but that might be only 15-20 games a season. If the GM is too afraid of dropping both, I'd keep Driedger and then the drop would be either Comtois or Mittelstadt, who has played just okay when he's managed to stay healthy, and I fear he might be on his way to becoming Nolan Patrick 2.0.

Topic #4 – In a dynasty league where goals are worth 2 points and assists 1 point, who is the better own – Dylan Cozens or Anton Lundell?

This is a tough choice, as both are coveted young players. I think that picking a "winner" here is as much about team and situation as it is about the player. If given equal opportunities on similar teams, I could see them posting comparable numbers.

I've said it before in my columns, but I worry that Lundell is actually too much of a complete player at such a young age. After all, as a 20-year-old rookie, he saw 44.8% of his team's SH minutes, which put him 23rd in shorthanded percentage among all forwards who played 40+ games, with no one who logged a higher percentage being younger than 24 and only two who were higher (Tanner Jeannot and Connor Brown) producing even point per every other game numbers. With Aleksander Barkov set as the #1 pivot in Florida and Sam Bennett likely staying put on the second line so as to provide grit and protection to Jonathan Huberdeau, that leaves Lundell on the third line. It reminds me – and not in a good way – of what happened to Jordan Staal when he was a youngster on Pittsburgh. The completeness of his game, and the presence of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, led to Staal being a third line center and never fulfilling what might have been great fantasy potential. As was the case for Staal in Pittsburgh, a spot on PP1 will be tough for Lundell to land. Now I'm not saying that Bennett is even in the same ballpark as Malkin; but he might be as entrenched, so the result could end up being the same for Lundell as it was for Staal.

Moreover, Lundell, despite playing quite well, saw his ice time drop with each passing quarter for 2020-21 and was down to 21 seconds of man advantage minutes by Q4. He might be a great player; but on a team as stacked as Florida, it's not clear if he'll get a realistic chance to make a mark, at least any time soon. We know from Staal a player can get pigeonholed, although in the same vein there's someone like Sean Couturier, a bottom sixer who ascended to a top line role, albeit not until he was seven seasons into his career.

Cozens is also a center on a team with two guys – Tage Thompson and Casey Mittelstadt – for whom that is their presumed position. But Thompson can play wing, and Mittelstadt and Cozens were on the same line at times in 2021-22. As such, there is realistic hope that Cozens could be in the top six. Plus, Cozens was improving as the season went on, as although his season-long SOG rate was 2.0 per game, he had 90 in his last 40 contests, and 48 in his final 20, when he also tallied four PPPts. Plus, as noted above, Mittelstadt has had injury issues and has not played like the top pick he once was, opening the door for Cozens to command more ice time. Moreover, the Sabres are a team on the rise who will look to players like Cozens to step up. Whereas Lundell gets deemphasized due to his versatility and the surplus of forward talent on Florida, Cozens should get ample opportunity to play in the top six, particularly since he's more of a pure offensive center less suited for a bottom six role.

I'm taking Cozens here. Lundell deserves better than what he's likely going to get. The hope is he becomes a Couturier, and in fewer than seven seasons, rather than a Staal, who never lived up to his early promise.

Topic #5 – In a 16 team, 37 rostered league with categories of G, A, HIT, BLK, FOW, Hat Tricks, SOG, PIM, PPPts, SHPs, GWG, +/-, SV, W, SV% and SHO, a GM gets to keep 11 skaters and one goalie. Who are the four skaters and two goalies that don't make the cut from the following list:

F: Jake Guentzel, Filip Forsberg, Lucas Raymond, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Travis Konecny, Clayton Keller, Jack Hughes, Dylan Larkin, Patrik Laine, Seth Jarvis, Matt Boldy
D: Aaron Ekblad, Mattias Samuelsson, Zach Werenski, Bowen Byram
G: Elvis Merzlikins, Jake Oettinger, Jack Campbell

Oettinger has won the job on a Dallas team that figures to be a playoff squad, whereas Merzlikins faltered big time in 2021-22 and might not have what it takes to be an everyday above average netminder. Campbell on Edmonton might have a post-UFA letdown; however, like Murray there is a lot of lure due to his team. If I had to keep just one I'd opt for Oettinger, who seems like he's on the fast train to becoming the next Juuse Saros or perhaps even Igor Shesterkin, although a few years ago that same hype accompanied Cater Hart and now look where he is. The issue is Campbell, was a journeyman for so long and when he was playing for his UFA deal he got worse as the season wore on. I like him for wins, but I can't see him outperforming Oettinger in the other categories, as being a goalie is Toronto is a pretty good barometer of what one might do playing for the similarly offensively-focused Oilers.

The easy skater cut is Samuelsson, leaving three more, two of whom I think need to be Konecny and Dubois. Yes, both are top six fixtures; however, they have not shown that they'll be major fantasy stars, but rather guys who fall into that 55- to 65-point range and maybe hit 70 points a couple of times. Yes, both stuff the stat sheet nicely; but, I think they're just is not solid enough production-wise to keep over some of the younger players who can produce now and project to potentially be stars.

The last cut is tougher, but it's probably Keller, as although I'm a strong believer in the fantasy value of very good players on lousy teams, he is quite weak in multi-cat. The other choice could be Werenski; however, as I noted in my most recent mailbag, he managed 11 goals last season despite hitting 13 posts and crossbars, plus was just under a point per gamer over his last 25 contests, and his first four seasons of goal scoring put him in ultra-elite territory and now Johnny Gaudreau will help his numbers. He's the keep over Keller. The only other possible cut is Byram, due to concern about the logjam on the Colorado blueline; but Byram projects to be a special player who, once he gets more experience, likely will make Samuel Girard and/or Devon Toews expendable, so I'm keeping him too.

Topic #6 – Does it make more sense to keep Marco Rossi or trade him for the 4th overall pick among players who were drafted in 2022?

A quick read of the Forum thread shows unwavering support for keeping Rossi, citing his potential and the drop off when it comes to talent in this years draft class once you get past the three highly touted players. And guess what – those are fair assessments. Still though, I think it'd be a mistake to keep Rossi here.

Rossi is undersized at 5'9'', meaning there is a good chance he doesn't hit his breakout threshold until game 400, which would be, at best, his fifth season. Yes, the Wild are under an eight-figure cap penalty for the next three seasons, making it unrealistic to get an elite talent to occupy a top six center role. But let's not forget they did pretty well last season with what they already had.

On the top line, Ryan Hartman meshed with Kirll Kaprizov, plus has a sandpaper style that serves to protect Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. As such, I see Rossi as a long shot to occupy the top line center position for Minnesota, displacing the protective and effective Hartman and putting two undersized players with Kaprizov. Okay, then Rossi gets a second line spot, to play with Matt Boldy? The issue there is with Kevin Fiala gone the line stands to be less potent.

Fine, then at least Rossi will get a spot on the Wild's PP1? Not so fast. Last season on PP1 the Wild used Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek, who takes up at lot of real estate at 6'3'' and over 200 pounds, plus was quite productive with the man advantage. Let's not forget that Fiala barely sniffed PP1 time, and if someone is going to punch a ticket there it'd likely be Boldy over the diminutive Rossi.

There's also the issue of being an undersized center in today's NHL. According to nhl.com, in the 2021-22 season a total of 42 centers played in 40+ games while averaging 0.75 points per game (i.e., a 61 point pace). Of them, a total of just seven weren't at least six feet tall, with only three (Brayden Point, Mikael Granlund, and Jonathan Marchessault) being under 5'11'', and only Marchessault being as short as Rossi. But looking at wingers, several have had some degree of success at some point in their careers despite being no taller than Rossi, including the likes of Brendan Gallagher, Yanni Gourde, Victor Arvidsson, Cam Atkinson, Zuccarello, plus three of the top wingers in the game: Brad Marchand, Alex Debrincat, and Johnny Gaudreau. At "center" really only Marchessault has achieved success despite being as short as Rossi, and Marchessault arguably is more of a winger than a center, making it so no one who is a top scoring center in today's NHL is as short as Rossi. To me that says a lot about what it takes to succeed as a pivot nowadays, and makes me even more worried about Rossi.

Plus, if Rossi does end up needing until game 400 to hit his breakout threshold, and the player that the GM would get 4th overall in their league's draft would only need to reach the usual game 200, then even if the player doesn't become a full time NHLer until 2024, he'd still be projected to break out earlier than Rossi. The fact that the player will have been drafted two years later than Rossi still might put him ahead of Rossi's breakout curve.

If it was me, I'd strongly consider trading Rossi, but try to get a top three pick. If a small carrot has to be added to do so, then I think it's worth it, as I'm not sold on Rossi being a major fantasy asset for a while, if even at all given his position and size.

Topic #7 – How do the following 2019 drafted players rank in terms of scoring upside: Kaapo Kakko, Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, Peyton Krebs, Connor McMichael, Vasily Podkolzin?

If you're an avid reader of my column, you know who I'm going to put last and that's Kakko. I fear that him having both Celiac Disease and Diabetes is underplayed and is likely having more of an effect than would've occurred when he wasn't playing amidst the rigors of the NHL. Also, in three seasons he's never had an overall IPP of 60%, let alone the 70% I want to see before I can feel comfortable that a player will be a fantasy asset. When Kakko plays with players who are less talented than him, he can't make them better, while when he plays with those who have skill he can't factor into the scoring. Yes, he's still young; however, I think by this time next year the whispers of him being a bust will be justifiably getting louder.

Next to last I've got McMichael. Yes, he's played just one season; however, he had some good opportunities given the injuries to T.J. Oshie and Anthony Mantha, but didn't seize upon them. Also, I fear that once he starts to come into his own, the Capswill be on a downswing as an already aging team, and it's not clear McMichael will be good enough to succeed on his own, at least not based on what I've witnessed thus far.

The middle two spots go to Podkolzin and Krebs, and it's tough to put one ahead of the other, although I favor Podkolzin ever so slightly over Krebs because I really liked what I was seeing from the Russian in Q4, when he had better than a point per every other game. I see him as being cut from more of a scorer's cloth than Krebs, who should be good too based on his own skill plus being on a Sabres team that's on the rise. But I fear the Sabres have such a great young core it's not clear whether Krebs will get PP1 time or if he'll slot on line two, whereas the sky's the limit for Podkolzin.

Assuming Nazem Kadri – who's unsigned as I write this – doesn't return to the Avs, Newhook is second for me, mainly because he'll be one of the only young forwards on a stacked Avs team which would need to replace Kadri and Andre Burakovsky. Plus, Newhook looked good in the regular season and playoffs without a sniff of the top six or PP1, with an encouraging 71.7% IPP. He's got skill on top of a great spot if Kadri leaves, and that is enough to put him in second, with an argument that he should rank first if near term success is more important or if a team wants less risk, as Newhook is the "safer" pick, again assuming Kadri leaves.

Dach though is the choice if true long-term upside is the measure. Yes, he flopped when put onto the Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat line to start 2021-22, but Dach is a taller center who might need until game 400 to have his true breakout potential. And the good news is there will now be no pressure on him to produce, as Nick Suzuki is the focal point in Montreal and the team will mature and improve as Dach does. Plus, he likely gets a spot on PP1 right away, so as to help his confidence. Why do I have him ranked ahead of Newhook? Mainly because I see Dach as having more home run potential, whereas Newhook should become a very good fantasy asset but perhaps not at the same upper echelon as Dach eventually stands to occupy. And for sure if Kadri stays in Colorado Dach is ranked first, by a wider margin.

Topic #8 – Assuming each plays in all 82 games, how many points will the following players get in 2022-23: Johnny Gaudreau, Mathew Barzal, Jesper Bratt, Shea Theodore?

Three of the four will have different circumstances than 2021-22, namely Gaudreau being on a new team and Barzal and Theodore playing for new coaches. Only Bratt should be on the same team under the same coach.

Starting with Gaudreau, while he figures to be playing with Patrik Laine, who should be an even better finisher than Matthew Tkachuk, who'll be their center? And who will protect them from the physical play of other teams like Tkachuk did for Gaudreau and Boone Jenner did for Laine? Between a post-UFA easing off the gas pedal and the question about who'll be his center, I'd say there's a 5% chance Gaudreau finishes with under 70 points, a 20% chance of 70-79 points, a 30% chance of 80-89 points, a 35% chance of 90-99 points, a 10% chance of 100-109 points.

For Barzal, although I don't see Lane Lambert suddenly seeking to transform New York into an offensive juggernaut, he also is smart enough to realize if he does more of the same he'll get fired just like Barry Trotz did. As such, I think he allows Barzal to play a more open and up-tempo style. Although I wouldn't expect to see the Isles finish 8th in team offense and last in team defense like they did the season before Trotz arrived, a middle of the pack offense is likely within reason.

It shouldn't take much for Barzal to succeed, as he's in his peak and dating back to 1990-91 the other two other centers who scored at an 85+ point pace as rookie age 20 or younger were Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The talent is there with Barzal; it's just been stifled for the past four seasons. I'd put the odds of Barzal finishing under 70 points at 15%, a 30% chance of 70-79 points, a 40% chance of 80-89 points, and a 15% chance of 90+ points.

Bratt was covered by me in a Goldipucks column a few months ago, where I saw him as a player unlikely to rise above the point per game level but also a safe bet to continue to produce given his metrics and the room he had to still improve. A lot will depend on if New Jersey plays Bratt on PP1 and how much PP1 is leaned on as opposed to two units seeing similar percentages. That's the big question, and what will make all the difference in how high or low his scoring will be. If he's on a PP1 that gets the lion's share of PP minutes, I see there being a 10% chance Bratt finishes under 70 points, a 40% chance he finishes with 70-79 points, a 45% chance he finishes with 80-89 points, and a 5% chance he finishes with 90-99 points. If he's not on PP1, those odds change to 15%, 70%, 20% and 0%.

Theodore had point per game production in his last 15 games and it stands to reason he will get more favorable deployment than he did in 2021-22, when he only took the ice for 57.2% of his team's man advantage minutes. With Theodore in his prime and new coach Bruce Cassidy someone who did tend to lean on one rearguard to run PP1, I see good things in store for him. I give Theodore a 10% chance of scoring in the 40- to 50-point range, 30% from 50-59, 50% at 60-69, and 10% from 70-79.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for a few more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.