Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

After a busy start to this summer's free agency, the moves have begun to slow down. After all of the transactions made, I thought it would be interesting to look at some of the risers and fallers around the league in terms of their upside.

These players have been decided based on changes in opportunity, the potential for growth, and the gain or loss of a teammate.

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Faller: Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Nashville Predators

Tolvanen entered this offseason already in a tricky situation. The once highly touted prospect has not reached the offensive ceiling once expected of him. Over his last 120 NHL regular season games, he has only scored 22 goals.

As you can see, Tolvanen's D+1 year was phenomenal. In 49 games for Jokerit of the KHL, Tolvanen scored 19 goals and 36 points for points per game of 0.74. The second highest rate by an 18-year-old in the KHL ever. This ranks him behind only Nail Yakupov and ahead of the likes of Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

However, since he transitioned to North America, Tolvanen has never found the same sort of production. Throughout this past year, he fell out of favour even more, averaging just 13:26 of time on ice per game. The ninth most out of Nashville's forwards.

Fast forward to free agency. Nashville resigned Forsberg but was still lacking a winger in the top-six. Would this finally be Tolvanen's year to break out? Enter Nino Niederreiter. Nashville signed the Swiss winger to a 2-year contract, which has seemingly pushed Tolvanen down to the fourth line on the depth chart.

You can't break up the Forsberg-Granlund-Duchene line. Niederreiter has experience on Johansen's wing from their days in junior, and Tomasino has done more to deserve that last top-six spot than Tolvanen. Then finally, will John Hynes really separate Trenin-Sissons-Jeannot, also known as the herd line?

All of this considered, Tolvanen is in a very odd spot with the team. I think all parties believe he can be a contributor at the NHL level but is his time in Nashville coming to a close? With rumours of Matthew Tkachuk swirling, I would not be surprised if Tolvanen is a part of a potential trade package going the other way to Calgary.

Overall, the off-season has not improved Tolvanen's chances of success in Music City, and his fantasy relevancy is minimal at the moment.

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Riser: Jack Roslovic, C, Columbus Blue Jackets

This is one of the most apparent risers post-free agency. I can assure you that Jack Roslovic is a very happy camper now that he has a chance to play on the same line as Johnny Gaudreau.

Roslovic finished the season as one of the Blue Jackets' top two centers alongside captain Boone Jenner. Since his move to Columbus, he has scored 79 points in 129 games. Good for a points per game of 0.61 (50-point pace per 82 games). Now adding Johnny Hockey into the mix raises Roslovic's ceiling immensely.

Consider the fact that Roslovic's most common linemates in 2021-22 were Gustav Nyquist and Jakub Voracek. Now, he is penciled in as the first line center alongside Patrik Laine and Gaudreau.

Roslovic is not an analytical darling, usually coming out above the league average in Corsi and finishing in the high forty’s for expected goal rates. But he can become a solid complementary pivot to a play-driving winger like Gaudreau.

Look at someone like Elias Lindholm, for example. Although his point totals are much higher than Roslovic's, his play-driving numbers are very similar. However, he has benefitted from having Gaudreau as his second most common linemate over the past three seasons.

With the improved linemates and the opportunity that seems to be afoot for Roslovic, 65+ points is a very reasonable prediction going into the new season. With the improved level of teammates at even strength and on the powerplay, he should have plenty of opportunities to break out offensively.

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Riser: Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators

One of the biggest surprises from the draft and onwards has been the Ottawa Senators. With the draft day trade for Alex DeBrincat, the Cam Talbot/Filip Gustavsson swap, and the massive free agent signing of Claude Giroux, the Senators are finally making steps in the right direction.

However, at the core of this team are its young players. Especially German centermen, Tim Stutzle. After entering the league as a winger, Stutzle has shifted down the middle full-time and is projected to be the second-line center behind Josh Norris heading into 2022-23.

After an impressive 58-point sophomore season, could we see Stutzle go the extra mile and become a point-per-game player with the new talent surrounding him?

Alex DeBrincat is by far one of my favourite players in the league, and if Ottawa can lock him up long-term, he can form a lethal duo with Stutzle. With 160 goals in 368 games, including two forty-goal seasons, DeBrincat is one of the league's premier sharpshooters and should fit perfectly in the Senators' top-six. Yes, there is a lack of Patrick Kane now, but I think with the amount of forward talent surrounding him at even-strength and on-the-man advantage, he won't miss a step in his production.

Moving back towards Stutzle, his transitional abilities will be a massive benefit on that line. He is one of the top defensive zone retrievals forwards in the league and is exceptional at being an efficient entry machine. Add that on to DeBrincat, who drives play just as well, and they should post good numbers on both the raw totals and the advanced numbers.

Overall, Stutzle has a chance for another leap in his production. Whether that is alongside DeBrincat or one of the other talented wingers in Ottawa's top-six, I think Sens fans will have a lot of fun witnessing the German blossom even more.

(Credit to Mason Black, EvolvingHockey, CapFriendly, and Corey Sznajder for the resources used in this article.)

As I conclude this week's column, I want to thank Ben for allowing me to fill in for him these past three weeks. It has been a ton of fun getting to write The Journey and I hope you all enjoyed getting to read some of my work!

Follow me on Twitter @curtis_rines for more hockey and prospect content.

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