Eastern Edge: Claude Giroux’s Outlook in Ottawa

Brennan Des

2022-07-26

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll take a look at how Claude Giroux's arrival affects the landscape in Ottawa.

Last season was a tale of two cities for Claude Giroux. Although the 34-year-old forward had a solid showing overall with 65 points in 75 games, there was a stark contrast between his performance with the Flyers and his play with the Panthers. Giroux put up 42 points in 57 games (a 60-point pace) in Philly, before he was traded to Florida and posted 23 points in 18 games (a 104-point pace). Part of his improved production can be explained by an upgraded power play as Giroux went from the league's worst unit to one of the league's best. Not only did he benefit from playing with better players in Florida, he also saw a greater role with the man advantage, going from a 61% share with the Flyers to a 71% share with the Panthers. Seeing more time, with better players, understandably resulted in more production. After tallying 12 power-play points through 57 games in Philly, Giroux managed 11 PPPs over 18 games in the Sunshine State. But what does all this mean for his outlook next year in Ottawa?

In his short time with the Panthers last season, Giroux showed he has the playmaking ability to enhance a star-studded power play. As a result, I expect he'll start the 2022-2023 campaign on Ottawa's top power play unit. Giroux's playmaking abilities would serve as the perfect complement to the shooting prowess of newly acquired Alex DeBrincat. That duo is likely to spend time together at even strength as well, so the two players will have plenty of opportunity to build chemistry, which should eventually result in strong production for both. Although it's theoretically a match made in heaven, keep in mind that we've seen expectations fall short of reality before. We'll have to enter most fantasy drafts without seeing Giroux and DeBrincat play together, but given the caliber and skillsets of the two players in this particular situation, I'd personally bet on an optimistic outcome rather than worst case scenario.

I imagine Tim Stützle will be trusted with centering the two talented wingers to start the season. However, given the fact that Giroux has experience playing center, and is much stronger in the faceoff dot, I wonder if that dynamic changes as the season progresses. Just something to keep in mind for the purposes of position eligibility, as well as the face-off win category. Last year, I recall situations in which Giroux was trusted to take faceoffs in Philly while Sean Couturier was on the ice, as well as in Florida while Aleksander Barkov was available. Both Couturier and Barkov are much better at faceoffs than Stützle, so it wouldn't surprise me if Giroux had to take on even more center-ice responsibility at first, to help the young German develop.

If Giroux, Stützle, and DeBrincat form one of Ottawa's top two lines, it makes sense that the other trio would include Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson – three players that performed at a high level together and formed Ottawa's top line last year. Given the fact that they were Ottawa's best line, they drew the most difficult matchups. Now that the team has enough talent to ice two strong lines, one line will draw more favourable matchups than the other. Given their skillsets, I imagine the Tkachuk line sees more defensive responsibility while the DeBrincat line sees more offensive deployment. As Dobber highlighted in Monday's Ramblings, there's some uncertainty when projecting Ottawa's line combinations because of incredibly serious sexual assault allegations against eight members of the 2018 WJC Team Canada roster. As it stands Batherson and Alex Formenton are among nine members of that roster who have not yet publicly denied their involvement in the situation and could face major consequences (i.e., lengthy suspensions) depending on results of the investigation. It's an incredibly serious situation that obviously transcends fantasy hockey, but I trust other outlets will do a better job of breaking down other aspects of the story.

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Now, it's worth mentioning that Giroux's successful integration into Florida's power-play was so seamless because the rest of that unit had already been playing together for some time,  sporting a strong 24% success rate before he came to town. In contrast, Ottawa's top unit next season will likely feature two new pieces in Giroux and DeBrincat. The unit might be rounded out by three players who have established chemistry, such as Tkachuk, Norris and Thomas Chabot. However, with the arrival of two big pieces, I imagine some strategies may be altered as the coaching staff works to find the best game plan. In fairness, it shouldn't be that difficult to integrate an elite playmaker and elite shooter into a power play that sported a respectable 19% success rate last season, but even small changes can be difficult to adapt to. I personally think the Senators have the right blend of high-end talent to ice one of the league's top power-play units, although they may need some time to get familiar with each other. Guys like Tkachuk and Chabot, who have seen high volumes of power-play time in the past but haven't had the strongest supporting casts, should benefit from being a part of the most talented unit Ottawa has seen in a few years. As for Giroux, who has been the focus of this article, I'm quite optimistic about his fantasy outlook next year – although I imagine he'll go quite early in most fantasy drafts. If his price becomes too expensive for you, I'd still recommend investing in other pieces of Ottawa's top power-play unit.

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