Frozen Tool Forensics: Riding the Goalie Carousel Part 2

Chris Kane

2022-07-29

This week we are finishing out the journey around the league's goaltenders. For a full list of all of the offseason moves and their fantasy impacts take a look here.

As a brief reminder of the process, here are some of the pertinent details from last week's article. We will be using the 2021-22 season Big Board Goalie report. This report is extra helpful for a bunch of reasons. For one it includes a lot of goalie metrics that we can use to compare goalies (including their salary), and over the summer it has been updated to include the new teams for goalies that have moved.

For the tables below I exported the Big Board Report and pulled forward the data that seemed most relevant in trying to figure out how the goalies for each team rank.

A quick note on goalie salary – because it is data for the 2021-22 season it is listing the salary for last season, not what free agent or extended goalies will be making in 2022-23. In most cases I will note the new salary below if needed. It is relevant because salary can be a useful clue when considering how a team will deploy their goalies. Team default usually is to defer to the higher paid guy even if the lower-paid goalie steals the net for a time. This could be either because big money goes to goalies who have been good, so it isn't entirely surprising for them to be better than the other person in the crease over the long term, or because organizations don't want to pay big money to a goalie sitting on the bench so are more likely to keep returning to them and giving them more chances.

One other thing to note about these depth charts. Some of them have quite a few goalies listed, and usually that is because there is some question about which depth goalie is poised to take the backup gig, or because one (or more) of the goalies at the top of the chart is prone to injury, or losing the gig.

And now on to the goalies.

New Jersey

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
VITEK VANECEK26N.J422047.6%12642.670.9081638.1$0.72M
NICO DAWS21N.J251040.0%11103.110.893728$0.93M
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD25N.J25936.0%10423.390.892832$2.8M
JONATHAN BERNIER33N.J10440.0%4103.060.902330$4.13M
AKIRA SCHMID22N.J600.0%4004.830.83300$0.93M

The train wreck in New Jersey's crease was spectacular. Injuries, blowouts, breakdowns, you name it. Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier seemed a reasonable place to start the year, but both missed a ton of time, and were pretty terrible in the time they did get. Nico Daws was almost worth owning for a little while before he imploded as well. With Bernier still on the IR, they go into 2022-23 with newcomer Vitek Vanecek ($3.4M), and Blackwood. NJ's relationship with Blackwood seems to have soured a bit, and he has shown that he desperately needs the support. Best case for him is a tandem situation, but with Vanecek having the more recent success, and the higher contract he could jump into the 1A role to start the season.

Nashville

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
JUUSE SAROS27NSH673856.7%25342.640.9183958.2$5M
KEVIN LANKINEN27NSH32825.0%15603.50.8911031.3$0.8M
CONNOR INGRAM25NSH3133.3%2003.710.879133.3$0.73M

A different name, but nothing really different in Nashville. Kevin Lankinen replaces David Rittich as the backup, but this is Juuse Saros' net, and every indication is that he will get all of the starts and provide a lot of value.

New York Islanders

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
ILYA SOROKIN26NYI522650.0%18872.40.9253567.3$4M
SEMYON VARLAMOV34NYI311032.3%17222.910.9111651.6$5M

Ilya Sorokin was the better goalie last year, after being pegged as their goalie of the future. Semyon Varlamov may have served his purpose here. They have operated as a tandem in the past, and while they still be more of a timeshare-ish than say a Saros, I would imagine Sorokin has the edge.

New York Rangers

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
IGOR SHESTERKIN26NYR533566.0%13462.070.9353769.8$5.67M
JAROSLAV HALAK37NYR17423.5%7202.940.903741.2$3M
LOUIS DOMINGUE30NYR2150.0%1002.020.9522100$0.75M

Like with Nashville, a new name, but no functional difference. Igor Shesterkin is an incredible goalie who will play the vast majority of the games with newcomer Jaroslav Halak getting some occasional backup starts.

Ottawa

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
CAM TALBOT35OTT493265.3%12432.760.9112755.1$3.67M
ANTON FORSBERG29OTT462247.8%17412.820.9172758.7$0.9M

Ottawa's crease has changed a lot over the last season. Going into the 2021-22 Matt Murray was the starter, who played so poorly he was sent to the minors (oh, he also got injured, and had a short stretch where he was great). That opened the door for Filip Gustavsson, but it ended up being Anton Forsberg who took the opportunity and ran with it, putting together a very solid end of the season. With Matt Murray and Gustavsson out of the picture, there may have been an opportunity for Forsberg, but the addition of Cam Talbot certainly changes that. Talbot's $3.67M salary is a bit higher than Forsberg's $2.75M, and the fact that they added him at all implies a lack of complete faith in Forsberg. I'd lean Talbot as a starter to begin the season, but Talbot has lost a starter's role very recently, and Forsberg has shown he can take over one, so I don't have a lot of long-term confidence in Talbot.

Philadelphia

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
CARTER HART23PHI451328.9%24713.160.9052044.4$3.98M
FELIX SANDSTROM25PHI500.0%4103.230.91120$0.75M

Not much doing in Philly. It is Carter Hart's net and anyone else is just the backup.

Pittsburgh

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
TRISTAN JARRY27PIT583458.6%18642.420.9193560.3$3.5M
DUSTIN TOKARSKI32PIT291034.5%12513.270.8991241.4$0.73M
CASEY DESMITH30PIT261142.3%6532.790.9141142.3$1.25M

Nothing has changed in Pittsburgh either. Dustin Tokarski likely starts in the minors. Tristan Jarry had a successful 2021-22 season and there isn't anything here that indicates that will change for 2022-23.

San Jose

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
JAMES REIMER34S.J481939.6%171012.920.9112756.3$2.25M
KAAPO KAHKONEN25S.J371437.8%14402.870.9122156.8$0.73M
ADIN HILL26S.J251040.0%11122.660.9061144$2.18M
AARON DELL33S.J1218.3%8104.030.893216.7$0.75M

Adin Hill, James Reimer, and Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75M) are all signed with the team, and all make fairly similar salaries. Reimer was the better of the two San Jose goalies last season (Reimer and Hill) and likely would have played even more if not for injuries. That would definitely give him an edge for this season's starter. Kahkonen, though, is signed for an extra year, is the youngest, and has the highest pedigree so it would make sense that San Jose might target him as their goalie of the future. That kind of leaves Adin Hill as the odd man out. The logical thing would be for Reimer and Kahkonen to share duties so San Jose can see what they have in Kahkonen and maybe pump up Reimer's value for a possible trade if they aren't looking at making the playoffs.

Seattle

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
PHILIPP GRUBAUER30SEA551832.7%31523.160.8891527.3$5.9M
MARTIN JONES32SEA351234.3%18303.420.91542.9$2M
CHRIS DRIEDGER28SEA27933.3%14112.960.899933.3$3.5M
JOEY DACCORD25SEA500.0%4004.30.8500$0.75M
MAGNUS HELLBERG31SEA11100.0%00030.8700$0.8M

In the realm of nightmares, Seattle certainly held sway in 2021-22. An area that was supposed to be a strength going into their inaugural season was anything but. Philipp Grubauer had an astonishingly terrible start and injuries to Chris Driedger kept him out of the lineup for the majority of the first half (plus he was also pretty bad when he played). The second half was a bit better from both and the hope was that a second season would have a slightly more even split of games and better performances from both. With Driedger's offseason injury that plan is out the window. Grubauer will get the lion's share of starts until Driedger's return (likely early in 2023), and in the meantime new acquisition Martin Jones and minor league starter Joey Daccord (and I suppose dark horse Magnus Hellberg) will battle it out in training camp for the backup role.

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St. Louis

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
JORDAN BINNINGTON29STL371848.6%14423.130.9011540.5$6M
THOMAS GREISS36STL311032.3%15103.660.8911445.2$3.6M

Last season was such a roller coaster for Jordan Binnington. He was absolutely terrible for a good chunk, lost the job to Ville Husso, then got it back in the playoffs with solid play, and then the Blues didn't sign Husso. They did add Thomas Greiss ($1.5M) who was not great in his last year in Detroit. Given his recent performance and salary, it looks like Greiss is coming in as a backup. It seems the Blues are happy to roll the dice with Binnington again, so I guess fantasy managers will too.

Tampa Bay

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY27T.B633961.9%18522.490.9163860.3$9.5M
BRIAN ELLIOTT37T.B191157.9%4312.430.912631.6$0.9M
MAXIME LAGACE29T.B2150.0%1006.110.82800$0.75M

Nothing has changed in Tampa. Andrei Vasilevskiy will get all of the starts for a very solid Tampa team.

Toronto

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
ILYA SAMSONOV25TOR442352.3%12533.020.8961125$2M
MATT MURRAY28TOR20525.0%12213.050.9061155$6.25M
ERIK KALLGREN25TOR14857.1%4113.310.888535.7$0.75M
JOSEPH WOLL24TOR4375.0%1012.760.911250$0.75M

Talk about a team rolling the dice. They jettisoned Petr Mrazek (an injury prone reclamation project) and Jack Campbell (a young, inconsistent goalie with potential) for Matt Murray (an injury prone reclamation project), and Ilya Samsonov (a young inconsistent goalie with potential). Different names, but will there be different results? It is hard to imagine Murray ($4.68M) staying healthy enough to be a consistent difference maker, even if he plays well, which is also a big question mark. Samsonov ($1.8M) then appears to be in a position to get a fair number of games even though he is being paid like a backup. Assuming Murray does get injured at some point, we also may see Erik Kallgren or Joseph Woll again.

Vancouver

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
THATCHER DEMKO26VAN643351.6%22712.720.9153453.1$5M
COLLIN DELIA28VAN8112.5%4103.850.899225$1M
SPENCER MARTIN27VAN6350.0%0301.740.956100$0.8M
MICHAEL DIPIETRO23VAN100.0%1003.140.82400$0.91M

Spencer Martin's contract gives him the inside edge for the backup role here, but like with a number of other teams it’s a change without a difference. Thatcher Demko is the man in net and will get the vast majority of starts. The backup here is sort of irrelevant for fantasy purposes.

Vegas

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
ROBIN LEHNER30VGK442352.3%17212.830.9071943.2$5M
LAURENT BROSSOIT29VGK241041.7%9312.90.8951041.7$2.33M
LOGAN THOMPSON25VGK191052.6%5312.680.9141052.6$0.8M
MICHAEL HUTCHINSON32VGK200.0%1004.570.85700$0.73M

Contract-wise, Laurent Brossoit should be the backup here, though Logan Thompson's performance at the end of the season certainly drew attention for all of the right reasons. Robin Lehner's injury history definitely means there are some opportunities for Vega's goalie depth, but I have got to assume that to start the season it is Lehner's net and Brossoit to back up.

Winnipeg

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK29WPG662943.9%271042.970.913959.1$6.17M
DAVID RITTICH29WPG17635.3%3403.570.886423.5$1.25M

Another distinction without a difference here. David Rittich moves from one backup situation where he doesn't play to another. If history is any indication Connor Hellebuyck will get all of the starts he can handle. There are some rumblings growing that maybe he should be getting some more rest, but even if that were to materialize, he maybe plays 60 games instead of 65.

Washington

NameAgeTeamGPWW%LOTLSOGAASV%QSQS%AAV
DARCY KUEMPER32WSH573764.9%12452.540.9213052.6$4.5M
CHARLIE LINDGREN28WSH55100.0%0001.220.958480$0.75M
ZACH FUCALE27WSH4125.0%1111.750.924250$0.75M

Washington is moving on from two young goalies in Vanecek and Samsonov who have yet to establish themselves to a cup-winning Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has had a solid couple of seasons, though does have a bit of a history of injuries so Charlie Lindgren could get a stretch of starts at some point. To start though, Kuemper is clearly the starter for what still should be a decent Washington team.

That is all for this week

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
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Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
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Starting Goalies

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