Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Goldipucks fans, you're in for a treat. Not only do you get your regular dose this week, but another next week as part of Bubble Keeper Week – so stay tuned. For this edition though, we focus on the regular higher profile or upside players, namely Anton Lundell, teammate Sam Reinhart, and Shea Theodore. You know the drill – this is where you ponder which of the three was too hot, who was too cold, and whose 2021-22 was just right, and only then do you venture onward to see if your instincts were spot on.

Anton Lundell (65 games, 18G, 26A, 125 SOG, 4 PPPts, 15:44 TOI, 0:41 PP, 12.8% PP%)

Drafted 12th overall in 2020, Lundell proceeded to post nearly a point per game for Liiga that same season. He then came stateside; and while the initial plan may have been for Lundell for get a nine-game trial so as not to burn a year of his ELC, the fact that he posted five points in his first five games and six in his first seven was enough to convince Florida to let Lundell stick with the big club. And when the dust settled on 2021-22, Lundell scored at a 56-point pace, validating the instincts to keep him in the NHL. But is 56 just the tip of the iceberg? Or might Lundell have overachieved? Most likely the latter, as his deployment is not conductive to scoring and his 2021-22 total – perhaps more so than most Panthers – was boosted by Florida's unsustainably high scoring as a team.

If it seems like Lundell's scoring rate was high for his ice time and him being a rookie, that's because it was, as going back to 2000-01, a grand total of just nine forwards played in 60+ games as a rookie while scoring at a pace at least 0.65 points per game despite playing less than 16:00 per contest. None of the nine ever topped the point per game mark in their career, and only three (Brad Boyes, Bobby Ryan, Jussi Jokinen) subsequently scored at a rate above 65 points in a season but none of the three more than twice, while five never again bested a 45 point rate, and the jury is still out regarding the last member (Dominik Kubalik). So already the odds don't favor Lundell being a success in the near- or long-term. Also, for what it's worth the three who had success were wings, while Lundell is a center.

What also distinguishes Lundell from those players is his defensive focus. Even though he was a rookie, Lundell took the ice for 44.8% of his team's shorthanded minutes, which is something none of the three somewhat successful rookie wingers did in their first seasons, with only Jokinen becoming a more defensive-minded player but only in the latter part of his career. Boyes and Ryan saw little to no shorthanded duty in any season though, further differentiating them from Lundell.

If 44.8% sounds high in general, that's because it is. Only 21 forwards saw a higher percentage of their team's SH minutes than Lundell, with only J.T. Miller and Andrew Copp scoring even a point per every other game among them. Miller's SH duty is a new thing, as only once in his first eight seasons did he see more than 13% of his team's SH duty, while Copp took until his sixth season before rising above 40%.

You know who did see that much SH duty from the outset? Jordan Staal, whom I believe is an apt comparison to Lundell. Like Lundell, Staal was put into a third line center role even though he had offensive talent, as the Pens had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin centering the top two lines. In Florida, Aleksander Barkov is the unquestioned #1 center, while Sam Bennett, due to his more sandpaper style, has been used in the second center role to bring grittiness to the top six; and if Bennett was shifted to wing, chances are Sam Reinhart, who is a natural center and is covered next, would get the second line gig. Just as Staal, also a top draft pick, was stuck on the third line, I fear that fate will befall Lundell. And we know how things played out for Staal, who had some decent numbers in shortened seasons but never scored at a 50+ point pace in any campaign where he skated in more than 62 contests.

Beyond the concerns regarding the Staal comparison, Lundell also saw his 2021-22 ice time drop with each passing quarter and failed to average even two SOG per game, which serves to further separate him from the likes of Boyes and Jokinen, who were at or above the 2.5 SOG per game mark. Jokinen was a selective shooter; however, he was the one of the three who only subsequently hit the 65-point mark just once.

Another concern is Lundell, despite being a third liner, had an overall IPP of 57.9%, or well below the 70% I like to see from a forward to suggest future success. If anything, Lundell's IPP should've been higher because he wasn't having to cede points to the likes of Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, plus other top liners. Instead, Lundell's most frequent linemates were Mason Marchment, Carter Verhaeghe, and the soon to be discussed Reinhart.

How then did Lundell manage to score at a 56-point rate? He was lifted by the Florida offense, which became the first in over 25 seasons to average more than four goals per contest. The last team to best the four-goal-per-contest mark was the 1995-96 Pens, whose rate fell by nearly a full goal the next season. Once the Panthers come back to earth somewhat, that will take a toll on Lundell perhaps more so than others as his IPP shows he is not a generator of offense but rather a passenger. If all that wasn't bad enough, Lundell also had a 46.2% secondary assist rate, which, although not stratospheric, was likely too high to offset what are bound to be lost points.

There is no sugarcoating the data about Lundell. His player comparables are not favorable, his percentage of shorthanded minutes is sky high, and his circumstances – even after the Huberdeau trade – seem eerily similar to that of Jordan Staal. On top of those issues, Lundell also is not an offense creator and likely benefitted unsustainably from his astronomically high scoring team. For these reasons, Lundell's 2021-22 was TOO HOT and I think it might be a while before he scores at a rate of 50+ points again. If Florida doesn't buck the odds and score at a stratospheric rate again, then I'd put Lundell down as a 40-45 point player, giving him a rating of 9.0. If you can unload him in a keeper for someone with more upside, I'd encourage you to do so before his "new car smell" wears off.

Sam Reinhart (78 games, 33G, 49A, 186 SOG, 20 PPPts, 17:46 TOI, 3:21 PP, 65.5% PP%)

Drafted second overall back in 2014, things progressed well for Reinhart, whose scoring rate increased for four straight seasons after his cameo in 2014-15. But rather than build on the 65-point pace he had in 2018-19, he stayed stuck in neutral, with rates of 59 and 61 in his next two seasons. But in his first season for Florida, Reinhart excelled, topping the point per game mark. Was this a fluke? No; rather, signs point to it being the real deal.

At first there is concern in that Reinhart's SOG rate was identical to what is was in 2020-21, when he scored at just a 61-point rate. Also, his overall ice time was down by 1:46; and while his PP time was up, his share of man advantage minutes actually was lower. Is it the case that, like Lundell, Reinhart unsustainably benefitted from the Panthers being an offensive juggernaut in 2021-22? Unlike with Lundell, there is past data that can be used for comparison. Buffalo's total goals in Reinhart's last two seasons there were 134 in 56 games (2020-21) and 193 in 69 games (2019-20). Reinhart appeared in all 69 games in 2019-20, so in scoring a total of 50 points he had a point on 26% (i.e., 50/193) of his team's goals. He missed two games in 2020-21 and the Sabres scored seven goals in those contests, meaning they had 127 in the 54 that Reinhart played, giving him a point on 31% (i.e., 40/134) of his team's goals. So looking at both seasons in combination, Reinhart had a point on 27.5% of Buffalo's goals in his final two seasons there. In 2021-22, the Panthers scored a total of 340 goals, minus the 17 they tallied in the four games Reinhart missed, for a total of 323. That means Reinhart had a point on 25% of his team's goals (i.e., 82/323). He fared markedly better in scoring despite the fact that he factored less into his team's goal total. This shows he could do more, such as if he gets additional ice time. It also is reassuring in the likely event the Panthers do see their goal total shrink in 2022-23, since Reinhart has realistic room to factor even more into the team's offense based on what he did in Buffalo.

The other thing that was encouraging about Reinhart's tenure in Buffalo was his last season saw him with an overall IPP of 70.2% and IPP on the PP of 80.0%. This is key because until then Reinhart never had an IPP – on the PP or overall – that was above the important 70% threshold I find correlates with fantasy success. That, however, showed he had it in him. Thus, when those numbers sunk to 63.6% overall and 62.0% on the PP for 2021-22, rather than sound alarm bells it actually makes Reinhart's 2021-22 scoring more plausible since here too if the Panthers do score less next season Reinhart still has the ability to factor into the scoring more so than he did in 2021-22, for a net wash.

It's especially encouraging to see Reinhart's IPP on the PP be that low, since I'll admit that I saw his 31 PPPts and figured he'd overachieved in that area. Yet instead he seemingly has room for that percentage to increase even if the team's PP is less successful. And although the Panthers PP was indeed a force, clicking at 24.4%, four teams fared better in 2021-22. So Reinhart's PP scoring could remain steady even if the Florida's PP scoring is less prolific, especially since Jonathan Huberdeau and Matthew Tkachuk had almost identical PP IPPs in 2021-22, making it so as many – if not more – PPPts will be there for Reinhart.

What about Reinhart's ice time though? Yes, it is true that an 86 point pace was a lot for a player who took the ice for under 18:00 per game, as among the 283 instances of forwards dating back to 2000-01 who played in 40+ games and likewise averaged at least 1.05 points per game in a season, just ten failed to skate for 18:00+ per contest. Nearly 20% were under 19:00 per game; plus, of those who were under 18:00 per game, several, like Pavel Datsyuk and Alex Mogilny, were at a similar age as Reinhart and likewise were great on the PP. Moreover, by Q4, Reinhart's TOI per game was up to 18:35, and he was above 18:00 in 15 of his last 22 games. So that might not be an ongoing issue.

As for Reinhart's other metrics, his SH% was a tad high, but on the other hand barely more than one in three of his assists were secondary; so any worse luck he might have shooting the puck in 2022-23 stands to be offset by getting more secondary assists in the normal course. And his OZ% was actually a four season low, so there shouldn't be any issue there.

Looking at the totality of the data, both pertaining to Reinhart individually and to his team, it seems like Reinhart's 86 point scoring rate for 2021-22 is sustainable. He might shed a couple of points when Florida comes back to earth, but only a few if any. For that reason, Reinhart's 2021-22 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 6.0, as he probably should be closer to a point per game player versus slightly above, although he could even surpass his 2021-22 rate if he sees more ice time due to Jonathan Huberdeau's exodus.

Shea Theodore (78 games, 14G, 38A, 205 SOG, 12 PPPts, 23:08 TOI, 2:28 PP, 57.2% PP%)

Picked 26th overall in 2013, Theodore never became a full time NHLer with the Ducks, who traded him to the expansion Knights in 2017 as part of a deal to ensure Vegas wouldn't pick Josh Manson but instead would grab Clayton Stoner. Theodore's impact in Sin City was modest at first, scoring just below the point per every other game threshold in his first two seasons there. But he started 2019-20 right near his 200 game breakout threshold and saw his output rise to a 53 point pace, which he then proceeded to best in 2020-21 to the tune of a 65 point pace. Yet just when poolies were ready to anoint him an elite fantasy blueliner, 2021-22 saw his scoring rate drop back to 55. Was this just a blip in the radar, or instead did he overachieve in 2020-21? Those of you who own Theodore will be glad to hear that you should expect more of what we saw in 2019-20 going forward, if not even better.

Theodore is a textbook example of why it is shortsighted to look at season-long stats, as it seems like his SOG rate went down from 3.0 to 2.6; yet if we focus on Q4, Theodore had 56 SOG in 18 games, for a better than 3.0 per game rate. And although his scoring was indeed only at a 55 point pace over the course of the entire campaign, he posted 15 points in his last 15 games.

Naturally the questions arise as to why the Q4 improvements occurred and whether they can carry into 2022-23. If anything, he could do even better, as he had a mere one PPPt in Q4 and two over his last 39 games. Much of that was due to Vegas not committing to Theodore as it's true PP QB, as they did in 2019-20 when he took the ice for over 70% of the team's man advantage minutes. Thereafter though, the coaching staff was unable to get behind Theodore or Alex Pietrangelo as the top guy.

All that is moot now, as Bruce Cassidy is coach and he has no qualms leaning on his best d-man to run his PP1, with Charlie McAvoy receiving the 9th most PP time among all NHL rearguards in 2021-22. There's little doubt Cassidy will anoint Theodore to run PP1, with Theodore posting 53 PPPts in his last 202 games, or more than one per every four games, versus Pietrangelo, who had a mere 17 in his last 121 contests, or one in every seven games. With Theodore restored to being the top PP option, his scoring should see a major boost.

Theodore also saw his OZ% inch slight downward in each of the past two seasons, yet still was able to maintain a virtually consistent overall IPP, with it being 49.5%, 49.4% and 49.1% in the past three campaigns. Once Theodore is back to taking the ice more so when he can put points on the board, he should see organic gains. It's a good thing too, as during his 65 point pace 2020-21 he had a secondary assist percentage of 55.9%. But the season prior it was an even higher 63.6% while for 2021-22 it was a lower 42.1%. Still, even if his rate was to stay below 50%, if it is accompanied by a restoration of Theodore's formerly higher OZ%, then it should be a net wash.

There is also a bit of concern in that Theodore's best season came with an IPP on the PP of 78.9%, while this season it was a more modest 50.0%. Sure, it's unlikely to ever be as high as 78.9% again; however, with the addition of Jack Eichel for a full season the team stands to be able to improve upon its PP scoring to enough of an extent that even if Theodore's PP IPP remains in the 50s he should see gains due to a rising tide lifting all boats, his included. As noted, a second half that saw him amass a mere two PPPts was unsustainable bad luck, yet still his PP IPP was a decent 50%. So there is reason to believe his PPPts can rise even if indeed his IPP on the PP stays in the 50s, and really explode if it goes any higher, as will be plausible if he's out there more on PP1, which, as noted above, is all the more likely with Bruce Cassidy now at the helm.

It's also worth noting that even though Theodore's PP time was not as high as it stands to be, he still took the ice for 23:08 per game, which was the 33rd highest per game average of any d-man. But of those ahead of him, only one – Thomas Chabot – saw less than his 0.19 per game of SH duty, and 27 of the 32 saw at least a minute more SH time per game than he did. The result was his even strength ice time per game ranking was 14th overall, with all but three of those ahead of him seeing more PPTOI per game than him. What that means is his added PP time will come on top of ice time that already is conductive to him being able to be a high scorer.

Also notable was that Theodore had ten games where he scored two points and one where he tallied three, meaning he amassed 23 of his 52 points in just 11 games. In turn, he had a total of 29 games with one point and, therefore, 38 with zero points. His 11 multipoint games put him 14th among d-men, with all but three scoring at a rate of 0.75 points per game or higher, and ten at 0.82 or higher. And when he scored at his 65-point rate, he had ten multipoint games in only 52 contests. Theodore's continued ability to put up big numbers in games even when his scoring rate was lower than his career best should make it more plausible he'll climb back to his 2020-21 scoring level, or even higher.

Looking at 2021-22 for Theodore will give one the wrong impression of his trajectory, as he was red hot at the end of the season, firing tons of SOG and piling on points including in a higher number of big games than those who scored at his level, this despite not getting heaps of PP time and hardly any PPPts in the second half of the season, which should come with Bruce Cassidy at the helm and Jack Eichel in the fold for an entire campaign. Theodore also already had ice time very conductive to scoring, which should only improve, as should his OZ%, by more than enough to offset concerns about secondary assists or PP IPP. Given all this, Theodore's 2021-22 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.25, with him likely able to rise back to a scoring rate of 65 points, and having a better shot of possibly hitting 70 than falling below 60. If you can get him for a price based on his misleading season-long totals for 2021-22, do so and prepare to be rewarded.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get questions to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.