Despite the fact that I contribute to the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide, complete a lot of my own projections, and publish other content including cap league rankings, salary projections, and other thoughts on fantasy strategy, being able to read Dobber's fantasy guide is always something I look forward to every summer. There's so much thought and time put into it, and for us fantasy addicts, it gets your brain thinking in a way that the conversation around the water cooler at work just never seems to manage.

Starting with the schedule, the guide runs through the fact that the season starts with games by Nashville and San Jose over in Prague, and I've noted in previous Ramblings that players from those two teams are good targets early on, as those are the only two teams that play twice in that first week of fantasy hockey. Lots of fantasy GMs like to pick the sleepers in the late rounds, and while I also swing for upside later in the draft, the last round or two is players that are often soon dropped anyways, so plan for that. Draft your last player or two based on someone you know you're going to stream out anyways, and pick the best streaming option left in the pile. Those Nashville and San Jose players, especially the ones that will give you a good floor of peripheral production, make great last picks in drafts.

Another scheduling focus is which teams have the most and least back-to-back (B2B) sets of games, and understanding how that could (and will) affect your goaltending. Knowing how to plan which backups to own, when you need to look into owning the handcuff, and which backups to avoid because a smaller amount of B2Bs force them into games less, can mean the difference between targeting Eric Comrie last year versus Semyon Varlamov (both teams having been profiled for those reasons in last year's guide).

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Then, we get to the sleeper picks. These are separated by conference, and include players inside the top-50, and outside the top-250, as they cover various league sizes and formats while trying to find value in underrated or underappreciated players. Regardless of your league or setup, there are some interesting names to be found.

For the guide, I write the one-way contracts section, and recent breakout seasons from Elvis Merzlikins, Andrew Mangiapane, Mason Marchment and Michael Bunting have been unearthed by me in this section over the last few years. To be honest, these were players that were not on my radar to be rostered in fantasy before they were profiled, but I have rostered a few of my own picks over the years, and it does pay off. When I see the names in the breakout sections that match the names in my one-way section, I know we're on to something.

One of the players that I profiled and was not touched upon much as a breakout possibility elsewhere in the guide is Alex Barre-Boulet (ABB). Despite scoring over a point-per-game at the AHL level the last two years, he hasn't been given a real opportunity to showcase himself at the NHL level. He played mostly with the fourth line in Tampa, and mostly with the third line in Seattle (which is actually worse than the fourth line in TB). That being said, in limited minutes last season, ABB put together an IPP of 66.7%, which is close to the 70% mark that we like to see for star players (players that can drive their own line and produce fantasy worthy numbers). He managed that without much sheltering into an offensive role, and with zero lucky secondary assists. The Lightning don't have top-six roles set in stone right now, and of the players set to make the opening day lineup, most can play in the bottom-six, but ABB will need to play on a scoring line to maximize his effectiveness. There's a lot that could go wrong, and the floor for him this year is zero points, but there is a clear map for a 60-point season from him as well.

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Next we have the rookie categories, both the 2022 draftees, and those likely in the running for the 2023 Calder trophy. Add that to the one-way contract & free agents to watch, the stock drops, the goalies to watch, some multi-category names, and the long-term payoff players, there's no shortage of lists to browse. I re-read them every week or two and a new name pops out every time to key in on.

On top of all of that, there is also Rick Roos' Outliers piece, and from those of you who read Rick's work you know that no one does a deeper dive on these things. Between that and Dobber's own take on some of the numbers set to regress to the mean (with an astronomical success rate) you know exactly where all of the important players lie with their relative value for next season.

That's the first 50 pages. Then you get to the meat of the guide, with the team-by-team analysis. My favourite part of that is the visual on the depth chart, and the look at the advanced metrics with the roles for individual players and how it all plays into the bigger picture. You get a sense of how players like Erik Gustafsson and Justin Schultz may factor into secondary power play time, with a little more ice time than their roles in their previous situations. There are players like Owen Tippett who show up in the advanced section and clearly look as though they can handle more minutes, and thrive in that kind of situation. These are the kind of nuanced notes that are backup up by reasoning that are much more worthy of being followed come draft day.

For example, looking at the Carolina Hurricanes chart, there's a name on the top-line RW slot that some may not get with their first guess or two. Though I can hear Michael Clifford yelling at me through the keyboard that everyone should know it's Seth Jarvis. Though Jarvis may not see top power play minutes, his deployment as a fit on the top line as part of a deep set of right wingers should see him build upon his 48-point-pace from his rookie year. The big breakout won't come until Christmas of 2023 at the earliest though.

If you haven’t bought it already, you can get the guide here.

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On that note, Martin Necas signed a two-year bridge deal at a $3 million AAV. My contract projections had him a little lower than that, but it's only because his reduced minutes kept his counting stats down. He's a skilled player, and with room in the lineup this year (especially with Max Pacioretty out for at least six months), both him and Jarvis should be able to pop without hurting the other's production.

Take a look at all that blue:

There's another level to Necas' game. Creates a lot of offense but most of it is perimeter play & finding someone else cutting to the net. I thought he would be traded but with Trocheck & Nino gone there's a need for offense in the middle-six. Bridge deal was the way to go. pic.twitter.com/ev1apdUqFg

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) August 9, 2022

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While we're on the topic of new contracts, I like to look ahead around this time to the extensions we may see coming up from star players. Johnny Huberdeau was locked up to an eight-year deal for $10.5 million recently (projected $10.4M), and that helps set the latest market trend, especially in light of Johnny Gaudreau hitting the market and landing a $9.75 million cap hit (projected $10.5M), plus Matthew Tkachuk's $9.5 million cap hit (projected $9.6M).

Nathan MacKinnon is the big name to note, and he's actually projected for a whopping $13 million cap hit on his next contract. He's worth that, and he may get it. There were rumours last year that MacK was open to taking a pay cut again to keep the band together and help the team win, but that may have changed with a cup to his name already, and having been underpaid the last number of years on one of the most team-friendly contracts ever, he has earned his big ticket. My bet is he ends up in the $11-12 million range, but $13 million should surprise no one.

Other notable projections for players now eligible to sign extensions (likely all at near full term):

J.T. Miller: $8.8 million

Mathew Barzal: $8.6 million

David Pastrnak : $8.4 million

Timo Meier: $7.7 million

Alex DeBrincat: $7.3 million

Jordan Kyrou: $6.8 million (though he can and should be using the Robert Thomas contract as a comparable)

Dylan Larkin: $6.3 million

And the list goes on. Lots of interesting extension to come, and with revenues going up, the cap possible jumping drastically over the next few years, and the trade prices only becoming more expensive for star players, the smart GMs are going to be trying to lock in these players sooner rather than later. The more long-term contracts that you can jump on in cap leagues, the better off you will likely be looking in the next few years.

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To send off today's Ramblings, I wanted to make a quick note that today is my third wedding anniversary, and I just wanted to give a big shout-out to my awesome wife who puts up with me writing about fantasy hockey every Tuesday night, and thinking about my fantasy teams the other six days of the week. Couldn't do this without you! I'll be back around tomorrow on Twitter@alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!