Figuring out which bubble players to drop and which ones to keep will lead to the most challenging decisions a fantasy general manager will have in the offseason.

There are just too many unanswered questions. “Will the player be used on the top line or third line on their new squad? Will they lose their power-play time to an elite rookie? Will they fit into a new system put forward by a new coach?”

That’s what makes them bubble players. If we knew a player’s usage, we would know whether he is worth a keeper spot.

I’m in a points-only league where you can keep 15 players (any position) plus two rookies. So you could keep 17 netminders if you wanted. Your top eight forwards, five defensemen and two goalies count in the final standings.

I went all-in last year and took home the championship. But now I am stuck with some tough decisions. I have no rookies, but I plan on keeping:

Forwards: Artemi Panarin, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Bryan Rust, Joe Pavelski, Nazem Kadri, J.T. Miller

Defence: Victor Hedman, Brent Burns, Adam Fox, Kris Letang

Goalies: Cam Talbot, Andrei Vasilevskiy

This means I can only keep two of Anze Kopitar, Matt Duchene, Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Shayne Gostisbehere and Philip Grubauer.

What makes this league interesting is a unique rule: All dropped players go into an auction. Before our draft, you can bid on the dropped players using your draft picks (maximum one pick per player). The bid with the highest draft pick wins the player, but your draft pick goes to the GM who dropped that player.

This ratchets up the decision-making. Dropping Pacioretty seems like a no-brainer as he is out for at least six months after Achilles surgery. However, it’s improbable anyone bids on him. As my highest draft pick is in the fourth round (37th overall), I may be better off keeping Pacioretty and dropping Duchene, who might fetch a late first or high second. However, maybe other GMs believe Duchene’s success last year was more of a fluke year, and the highest bid is a low third-rounder. 

I know I’m not the only one struggling with keeper decisions as we head into the season. Ideally, in larger points-only keeper pools, I find that you want your worst veteran forwards to finish with at least 50 points, and your worst veteran defensemen to finish with at least 40 points. This doesn’t apply to rookies/prospects/young players who haven’t broken out yet, as you need to be patient.

Here are the top 10 players who could be bubble keepers in deep points-only leagues.

10. Alex Nedeljkovic

Goalies are hard to predict in general but almost impossible in keeper leagues with limited spots. In my league, for example, only two netminders count for points. With 12 teams, the top 24 goalers are usually kept, with a few teams keeping three netminders to account for players such as Spencer Knight, Cal Petersen, Vitek Vanecek, etc. That puts Nedeljkovic right on the bubble. He’s not great enough to be a must-have, he’s in a timeshare situation with the Wings signing Ville Husso, and Detroit might struggle enough that Nedeljkovic might not pick up enough wins and shutouts to count in your final standings. He’s still an easy decision for deep fantasy leagues; in a limited keeper, you may be better off keeping someone else.

9. Max Domi

Sure, there’s a chance he plays with Patrick Kane (after all, someone on that team has to) and gets back to a 70-point pace. That’s what many fantasy general managers are hoping for. However, Domi has finished above a 55-point pace once in his seven-year career. There’s also a strong possibility Kane is dealt this season. Domi, who signed a one-year deal, could also be on the move at the trade deadline. Even if he is in a top-six role at the start of the campaign, he could be relegated to a bottom-six role on a contending team if traded.

8. Erik Brannstrom

In Dobber’s fantasy hockey guide (get it here), I wrote a column about 20 players to invest in now for a long-term payoff. So pretty much, the classic buy low. Brannstrom was one of the 20 players I wrote about. However, that doesn’t make him an automatic keeper in all leagues this year. If you’re a rebuilding team, you keep Brannstrom. If you’re not, then it’s a tough choice. Hold on to him with the hopes he will be awesome in a few years? Or let him go and let your competitors pick him up? Depending on your league, it may be smarter to drop him this season and hope to pick him up in the future.

7. Ondrej Palat

Way back in 2014-15, Palat was a member of the famous Tampa Bay triplets line as he put up a 69-point pace as a 23-year-old. Since then, he put up an 82-game pace of 53, 57, 51, 44, 49, 69 and 52 points. He’s now in New Jersey, where he could be playing alongside Jack Hughes. If we knew that for sure, you could probably bank on a 70-point minimum and it would be an easy keep. However, he could be on the second or third line, depending on the youth in New Jersey. There are also the odds that he’ll miss a minimum of five games, as he has in six of the last eight years. The only two seasons he didn’t miss five games were the shortened years due to Covid.

6. Oliver Bjorkstrand

Bjorkstrand was traded to the Kraken this offseason. While he should be a shoo-in for the top power-play unit and a top-six role, keep in mind that the leading point-getter in Seattle last season topped out at exactly 50 points, and only two others cracked the 40-point plateau. Sure, Bjorkstrand should make the Kraken better, but I’d be hard-pressed to recommend keeping any Seattle player in a deep points-only league that isn’t a rookie/prospect.

5. Joel Eriksson Ek

I’m a huge fan of JEE, and I have him in a deep dynasty keeper league that uses categories such as faceoff wins, hits, shots and a host of others. In a league like that, he’s a must own. In a points-only league, he’s a borderline keeper. He hit 50 points once in his five-year career (last season), and he’s a borderline 2C/3C, depending on the usage for Marco Rossi. There’s also a good chance that Rossi will usurp Eriksson Ek on the power play, which would make it difficult for him to reach 17 power-play points again. 

4. Semyon Varlamov

Varlamov’s numbers last year were a step back from the previous season, he missed a ton of games due to injury, he should be the backup with the Islanders and, as a UFA in a year, he could be dealt to a team to back up an elite netminder where he gets even fewer games than he would with New York. However, the new Islanders coach might allow Varlamov to play more games than the usual backup, and there are rumors that he will be traded to Vegas now that Robin Lehner is out for the season. Right now, Varlamov is a bubble keeper. If he is traded to Vegas, he’s a must own.

3. Mark Giordano

As I mentioned above, in a larger points-only keeper league, you want veteran defensemen to reach the 40-point plateau. Giordano has either bested that or come close to that mark over an 82-game pace in each of the last 10 seasons. Last year, he had a 38-point pace between Seattle and Toronto, but had 12 points in 20 contests with the Leafs, a 49-point pace. Giordano, who will be 39 years old when the season begins, would be the second offensive option in Toronto, but Morgan Rielly would get all the plum minutes with the top guys. Forty points would be tough, but not out of the question for Giordano.

2. Phil Kessel

If your league’s drop date is mid-September, there’s plenty of time yet to see where Kessel signs. If your drop date is next week, it creates an even tougher decision on Kessel. In roto leagues, he’d be a much easier drop considering he doesn’t hit, block shots, take faceoffs or have a positive plus/minus, and his shot rate has been declining for several years. In points-only pools, Kessel had a 52-point pace last season on a lowly Arizona squad (the worst offensive squad in the league). Depending on where he signs, the 34-year-old could boost his value and be an easy keeper decision. For now, there would be some trepidation keeping him not knowing where he might wind up playing in October.

1. Dominik Kubalik

After great rookie and sophomore seasons where he had an 82-game point pace of 55 and 56 points, Kubalik was a sexy pick last year to break out for 70 points. Instead, he went in the other direction and finished with 31 points in 78 games, a 33-point pace. Normally, you would want to hold on to a 26-year-old player that is about to start his 200-game breakout threshold season, but Kubalik is with the Red Wings on the third line instead of in a potential top-six role with the Blackhawks. If everything goes perfectly, he might get back to the 55-point pace, but there are a lot of what-ifs in that scenario.