Wild West: Western Conference Bubble Keepers

Grant Campbell

2022-08-15

Over the last few seasons, during bubble week I have focused on the format I know and that is a 25-team salary cap ($82.5 million) keeper pool with 27 players on each roster (20 active and seven in reserve, but all salaries count). As it is the off-season, we allow each team to carry 28 players if one of the players is an Entry draft pick from 2022. Teams must get back down to 27 players on the roster the week before the start of the season.  Currently, there are 677 players on rosters over the 25 teams.

The point system is based on goals, assists, and plus/minus which are weighted differently for forwards (four fantasy points for goals and assists and two FP for plus/minus) and defensemen (five FP for goals and eight for assists and four for plus/minus) Goalies are rewarded for wins, overtime or shootout losses, shutouts and games played. There are no hits or PIM. Our league is capped at nine defencemen and three goalies with a minimum of five defence and two goalies.

The pool has an average salary of $2.96 million (up from $2.8 last year) with an average of 150.9 FP per season (up from 145) and 1.84 FP per game for players (up from 1.77). When we developed the rules for the pool, our goal was to have each position represented somewhat equally in the top 20 for points, so the top goalie, forward or defenceman would all be in the top ten. Goalies are not dressing the number of games they did in the past so are losing a little ground here.

Last year the top player at each position was Cale Makar (1st overall) with 747 FP on defense, Johnny Gaudreau 4th overall) with 624 FP at forward and Jacob Markstrom (26th overall) with 443 FP in goal. There were eight defenders in the top 20 and 12 forwards, but the top three overall were all defensemen.

This is a great exercise to look at if you're running your own pool and want to check and see if your rules are still holding up after a few years. I'll need to have a look at defensemen goals next season if Makar exceeds the opposition by 106 FP points like he did last year.

I was looking at my bubble keeper article from two years ago, the other day and Andrew Copp and Joe Pavelski were listed as bubble players. Thankfully I said to keep both!

I will look at a few rosters in our pool and focus on some decisions that some of the GMs might be faced with in dropping or keeping a few bubble players on their team.

Max Comtois vs Rasmus Asplund

Comtois (23 years old) has played parts of four seasons with 146 games with Anaheim. Last season he struggled and put up six goals and 10 assists in 52 games (0.31 pts/game) for 32 FP after the prior year with 16 goals and 17 assists in 55 games (0.6/g) for 146 FP. In his best season so far in 2020-21, he had 2.7 FP/g and pro-rated to 82 games he would have had 221 FP which is probably his ceiling, but well over the pool average of 150.9. At a salary of $2.55 million, he's not a cheap addition if he is below average again. There are safer players on waivers that could be added instead at a cheaper price.

Asplund (24) is entering his fourth NHL season after 137 games in Buffalo in his career. He had eight goals and 19 assists in 80 games last year, good for 104 FP (1.3/g), which is well below the replacement line for waiver replacement. He has increased his shots on goal from 1.2 to 1.6 per game and could see similar numbers next year. I just don't see him doing substantially more production while he is in the NHL.

Asplund is signed at $875k next year but I would choose Comtois on my roster this season, but one might look at replacing both throughout the season or by next year. Comtois needs to come out and give the owner of his fantasy team an early indication that he might be on pace for 15-20 goals and 15-20 assists once again.

Ryan McLeod vs Teddy Blueger

One thing I'm guilty of is holding on to players that are similar to Ryan Mcleod (22) and waiting for them to produce for a few years before they actually do if they ever actually do. The problem is sometimes that most owners have a similar opinion on McLeod, so if put on waivers he might be scooped up fairly quickly.

Last year McLeod improved slightly in his rookie year and finished with nine goals and 12 assists in 71 games and finished with 86 FP (1.2/g), which is well below waivers. The hope is that he might get to a 15-20 goal and assist level and be better than average. He is still unsigned as an RFA but will be around $1 million AAV for next season. I would wait and carry him for this season and see if there is some progression, but if not I would move on.

Blueger (27) makes $2.4 million AAV and had nine goals and 19 assists in 65 games for 138 FP (2.1/g) which puts him a little above average if he plays more than 70 games in a year. He has played 205 games in his career all with Pittsburgh but plays behind Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jeff Carter. If there is an injury to any of those players, he has a chance to move up the lineup and perhaps produce more.

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McLeod makes less, is five years younger, and might have a higher ceiling, but you could be costing your team 50-60 FP next year if you take him over Blueger. This choice depends entirely on where your team is in the standings and what your salary cap needs are. Personally, I'm a sucker and would choose McLeod for at least one more year.

Barclay Goodrow vs Tyson Jost

Goodrow (29) had his best NHL season last year with the NY Rangers where he put up 13 goals and 20 assists in 79 games for 164 FP (2.1/g). He's had two seasons in a row with 2.1FP/g, so he is a solid add if you can afford his $3.641 million AAV for the next five seasons. His salary will be the sticking point for most fantasy teams as that is a lot of salary for his production if you're tight to the cap.

Jost (24) will be entering his sixth season after joining Minnesota from Colorado last year. He had slightly improved his fantasy production each season until last year. His fantasy points per year went from 1.2/g to 1.8/g over his first four seasons in Colorado but dipped down to 1.1/g last year. He makes $2 million AAV and at this point, I think he might not be worth carrying in our pool.

If you have the salary cap space, Goodrow is the better option.

Erik Gustafsson vs Travis Dermott

Gustafsson (30) had 60 points in 79 games four seasons ago, so it is tough to see that and not think that there might be three-quarters of that production one more time. To put things in perspective, when he had his 60-point year, he produced 348 FP (4.4/g) but has never produced more than 136 FP in any of his five other seasons. Last season he produced 87 FP (1.5/g) in 59 games with Chicago. He is with Washington this season for $800k and should be on a better team than last year, so his numbers could improve. He is a gamble that might be worth it.

Dermott (25) makes $1.5 million AAV and was traded to Vancouver from Toronto last season. He has now played 268 games over five seasons with 60 games being the most in one year. If the past two seasons (78 and 32 FP) are an indication of his fantasy value, then he shouldn't be even mentioned here. What is intriguing is that he had a fantasy-relevant season in 2019-20 with 124 FP (2.2/g) and there is hope he can get back to that level. The reality is that even if he does, he still shouldn't be rostered in our fantasy league.

There are a few other players that could be considered on the waiver wire in our pool, but salary room and need dictate what each team should be looking at. My team finished 6th out of 25 teams last year, so I won't be looking to develop a player over four or five seasons at less than average production without improvement from year to year. I'll choose an established player with a lower ceiling to make sure I can stay where I am and possibly move up to the top five next year.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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Starting Goalies

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PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
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JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
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LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
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22.7 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK MORGAN GEEKIE
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