Ramblings: Canada Wins World Juniors, First Yahoo Mock Draft, Norris in Top 100? (Aug 21)

Ian Gooding

2022-08-21

What a finish to the World Junior Tournament! Kent Johnson scored the tournament-winning goal at 3:20 of overtime to give Canada the gold medal in a 3-2 win over Finland. Here's the golden goal:

That goal wouldn't have been possible without an incredible save from Mason McTavish just moments earlier. Yes, Mason McTavish.

Another angle, courtesy of our old pal Cam Robinson. The line between gold and silver is a very thin one.

McTavish was the tournament MVP, not necessarily because of the save but because he finished as the tournament's top scorer with eight goals and nine assists. A player's overall value shouldn't increase because of a short tournament, but Ducks draft pick McTavish was definitely an impact player here.

Canada entered this game with a 2-0 lead, but the Finns tied the game in the third period with goals from Aleksi Heimosalmi and Joakim Kemell. Joshua Roy and William Dufour scored Canada's other goals.

Obviously the interest in this tournament was lacking because it was played in the summer and with Hockey Canada's recent scandal. But if they managed to tune in, hockey fans couldn't have asked for anything more for a gold medal match.

Earlier in the day, Sweden defeated Czechia 3-1 to win the bronze medal.

Responding to some feedback on the Top 100 Roto Rankings, is Josh Norris a top-100 roto option? I used the Player Compare feature on Frozen Tools to compare him with some other forwards that are just within the top 100.  

Based on points-per-game in 2021-22 (0.83 PTS/GP), Norris should belong in the top 100. As well, Norris also compiled a strong goal total (35 G), and he's particularly effective on the power play (16 PPG). With the offseason upgrades in Ottawa, Norris could take another step forward. If Norris deserves a spot in the top 100, who should I bump out? Here are a few names to consider.

Mats Zuccarello had one 20-goal season entering last season. Yet on a line with Kirill Kaprizov, he rose to new heights with a career-high 79 points. He could be in for another point-per-game season if he stays on Kirill the Thrill's line.

Vincent Trocheck underwhelmed in points leagues in 2021-22 with a 51-point season. Yet he also brings strong peripherals such as hits, and he may rebound points-wise centering Artemi Panarin. He's definitely on the bubble, though.

Sam Bennett earned a spot in the top 100 thanks to his 2020-21 late-season run (15 points in his last 10 games). He also has some fairly strong peripherals and might even center Matthew Tkachuk if he's lucky. But his production tailed off in the second half to 23 points in 38 games, which works out to a more modest 50-point pace. I think Bennett's the guy who should drop out. Feel free to try to change my mind on that.

Yahoo reopened its fantasy hockey leagues early in August, but it wasn't until recently that mock drafts were made available. I thought I'd give it a whirl and share with you my results and analysis.

I chose the 12-team draft, since it seems to be the most common league size. Standard Yahoo positions, which are C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN. Scoring categories G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT, W, GAA, SV%.

I was second into the draft room, so naturally I grabbed second overall. Here are the players I selected by round and pick:

1-2 Auston Matthews (Tor – C)

2-23 J.T. Miller (Van – C,LW)

3-26 Steven Stamkos (TB – C,LW)

4-47 Morgan Rielly (Tor – D)

5-50 Nazem Kadri (Cgy – C)

6-71 Devon Toews (Col – D)

7-74 Tristan Jarry (Pit – G)

8-95 Bryan Rust (Pit – RW)

9-98 Jordan Kyrou (StL – LW,RW)

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10-119 Thomas Chabot (Ott – D)

11-122 Anze Kopitar (LA – C)

12-143 Jordan Binnington (StL – G)

13-146 Charlie McAvoy (Bos – D)

14-167 Blake Wheeler (Wpg – RW)

15-170 Tyson Barrie (Edm – D)

16-191 Elvis Merzlikins (Cls – G)

You can view the rest of the results at my personal blog Goods Fantasy Hockey.

I won't discuss every one of my picks – just ones of particular interest.

Not surprisingly, the first overall pick was Connor McDavid, the top point getter. That meant I went with the top goal scorer in Matthews as the second overall pick. Leon Draisaitl is actually the second-ranked pick over Matthews, but I'm thinking that might flip as more picks are completed. Matthews' point totals have a higher goal concentration, which is important because there are fewer goals than assists. However, Draisaitl records more points overall. Matthews vs. Draisaitl as the second pick has the makings of a great debate leading up to this year's drafts.

Even if the trade rumors are a distraction, I'm all over Miller as a top-20 pick, which I explained here.

Kadri's ADP at Yahoo is currently 65. Perhaps that number will rise now that he has signed a contract, but it could also represent the lack of faith that Yahoo rankers and drafters have in him repeating his 87-point season. I don't see it happening either, but I thought 50 was a good spot to grab him, as it was in line with where he's listed in the Roto Rankings. He's another player to watch.

As I saw goaltenders slip out of my hands (like Jacob Markstrom near the end of Round 4), I thought about the Zero G strategy, which I used last season to delay drafting a goalie until after pick 100. But by the time I picked Jarry, I had already picked four forwards and two defensemen and was comfortable with my scoring at that point. Whether I pick my first goalie before or after pick 100 in the draft, I likely won't be drafting a goalie with my first few picks. Sorry, Andrei Vasilevskiy or Igor Shesterkin.

Other picks I had queued up before someone else selected right before me:

Patrik Laine (Round 8, 94th overall)

Brent Burns (Round 10, 118th overall)

Kopitar doesn't get enough respect. Three consecutive seasons of 0.8+ points per game. Of course, the fact that he plays center is going to make him fall. Same with Mark Scheifele, who has an ADP of 136 in Yahoo, below the likes of Peyton Krebs and Charlie Coyle for some reason. I'm guessing that these little oddities will clear themselves up when actual drafts take place because this is way early.

Which Binnington will show up this season – the one that struggled through much of the regular season, or the one that found his game during the playoffs? Don't reach for him, but he's one option if you're looking for a value pick. The likes of Eric Comrie, Matt Murray, and even the injured Robin Lehner are being drafted ahead of him right now.

Yes, I'm aware of McAvoy's injury. I drafted him not long after his ADP. Brad Marchand is being drafted at 132. My thinking is that if you can survive the first couple months without these players, using the opportunity instead to be early on a waiver-wire find, then you'll get a player that will much outperform their ADP in the second half. I'd still draft Marchand in the top 100 because he's been an elite scorer.     

Wheeler and Barrie have sure fallen. They're both out of the top 100 as roto options, but they're being drafted super low (each with an ADP of around 160). Wheeler was still nearly a point-per-game player last season (60 PTS in 65 GP), while Barrie could still be the PP1 d-man on a loaded Edmonton power play. Keep an eye on both in the later rounds of your draft.

I've been in mock drafts where most of the spots don't get filled, so the Yahoo autopicker participates instead. This one was at least half filled with what looked like real people who appeared to be making solid well-thought-out picks.

This likely won't be the last mock draft that I participate in. I'll likely try different league sizes, different draft spots, and maybe even different providers from Yahoo.

I'm taking some more time off next weekend, so I'll be back here in two weeks. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

One Comment

  1. mage-users 2022-08-21 at 07:46

    Matthews vs. Draisaitl as the second pick? Not even close. Draisaitl also has LW eligibility, so he is the obvious choice. The real debate is McDavid vs Draisatle at #1 if FOW is one of the scoring categories.

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